Hurricane Dorian Live Thread

NHC/NOAA ^ | 28 August 2019 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Dorian battered St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and brushing Puerto Rico. Taking aim at the Florida Atlantic Coastline, Hurricane Dorian is projected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) at landfall.

Satellite Imagery Dorian

NHC Public Advisories

NHC Discussions

Florida Radar Loop (with storm track overlay)

Buoy Data with Storm Track overlay

[dirtboy]

Eyewall getting stronger

[mewzilla]

It appears that the western side just got organized.

Well, nuts.

OK, who's got the Damp Rid??

[GOPJ]

Thanks Tex

[John S Mosby]

Bastardi is fantaastic. And careful. He mentioned exactly what the Chief Meteorologist for Accuweather Bernie Rayno says in the following 18 minute analysis last night. It IS the upper LOWS that matter in the steering of the system.

So— if Dorian slows down in the middle N of the Central Bahamas... it could very well go due North— and Carolinas!!! Watch out. Historical data— just as Bastardi talks about— and he did mention this back 3 days ago— the track could go up the coast OR further out to sea— then landfall in SC... just like HUGO!

The huge wide round circle of storm center in mid FL is entirely speculative— it may never get there!! Let’s hope.

This is worth a watch Bernie Rayno- with live Sat and true tracking history of prior in this date range storms:

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1YqJDnzLvPYKV

[Guenevere]

Placemark

[rodguy911]

When do you think noaa will target within a 20 mile zone or so where the eye will pass over Florida’s east coast and by then how big will it be?

[numberonepal]

Some good news. 12Z Euro has Dorian missing FL landfall and missing CONUS all together.

[RightGeek]

That isn’t exactly missing - more like sideswiping

[Capt. Tom]

The huge wide round circle of storm center in mid FL is entirely speculative— it may never get there!! Let’s hope.

Maybe it will turn north enough to spare the Carolinas also. -tom

https://images.search.yahoo.com/images/view;_ylt=AwrExdmHbmld5hcAbhY2nIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTIydGxtODZ1BHNlYwNzcgRzbGsDaW1nBG9pZANmMzNmYzFhYjExYzBhYmE3ZDc2ZmExOTg2NGUxOTQ0NQRncG9zAzIEaXQDYmluZw--?back=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.search.yahoo.com%2Fyhs%2Fsearch%3Fp%3Dtrack%2Bof%2B1938%2Bnew%2Bengland%2Bhurricane%26fr%3Dyhs-adk-adk_sbnt%26hsimp%3Dyhs-adk_sbnt%26hspart%3Dadk%26imgurl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fupload.wikimedia.org%252Fwikipedia%252Fen%252F0%252F0d%252FNew_England_Hurricane_of_1938_track.gif%26tab%3Dorganic%26ri%3D2&w=285&h=412&imgurl=upload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fen%2F0%2F0d%2FNew_England_Hurricane_of_1938_track.gif&rurl=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FFile%3ANew_England_Hurricane_of_1938_track.gif&size=+5.9KB&name=File%3ANew+England+Hurricane+of+1938+track.gif+-+Wikipedia&p=track+of+1938+new+england+hurricane&oid=f33fc1ab11c0aba7d76fa19864e19445&fr2=&fr=yhs-adk-adk_sbnt&tt=File%3ANew+England+Hurricane+of+1938+track.gif+-+Wikipedia&b=0&ni=56&no=2&ts=&tab=organic&sigr=12aq30crd&sigb=181alrk0l&sigi=12e91p6d5&sigt=11okjdl7c&sign=11okjdl7c&.crumb=RBAJtCPO6kA&fr=yhs-adk-adk_sbnt&hsimp=yhs-adk_sbnt&hspart=adk

[numberonepal]

12z GFS is showing a more direct impact, but raking the coast.

[numberonepal]

That isn’t exactly missing - more like sideswiping

True, but this is good news for the West Coast and Northern GC.

[Waverunner]

My recent best experience with Publix was about 2 months ago. They had Zephyr Springs water on sale. BOGO on the 24packs. The stocker said wait, we just got in some bonus packs with 28 instead of 24, then the manager said I just got in a lot of coupons, 1.00 off on a 24 pack. I walked out with 8 28 packs at 1.50 a pack. It’s the main reason I’m not being a crazy hurricane shopper right now.

[alancarp]

By the time they can narrow it down that close, it'll probably be too late to make a go/no-go decision if you're that close.

Given that this beast is gonna be a Cat 4 or 5 storm, if you're thinking about bugging out at all, I'd be ready to roll no later than 24 hours before landfall... probably 36 since it's gonna be slowing down. If I were there, I'd be heading to Naples or Everglades City.

If the forecasts have it landing anywhere within 50-70 miles of your location at that point, then that would be a good enough indication to leave. You could definitely expect hurricane force winds anywhere in that window to wherever the landfall 'point' is... and maybe a bit further.

You could also expect those winds to linger for a full day. God have mercy on anyone enduring the eye wall for all of those hours.

Right now, the models are starting to converge, but all points from Ft. Lauderdale to Ft. Pierce are definitely in play... with changes still quite plausible since it's still 3-4 days out.

(But face it: the entire Atlantic Coast from Miami to at least Hilton Head could get thrashed)

[Capt_Hank]

I’m in Ft. Pierce, heading to Birmingham, AL in the morning. Too many variables are coming into the equation, as to where it will make landfall.

[Rumierules]

That isn’t exactly missing - more like sideswiping
_________________

As someone from Jacksonville, I’m with you. I’d prefer a more robust miss than that.

[alancarp]

Mighty fine state... welcome! (I am a Fla native, though!)

[Moonman62]

12z GFS is showing a more direct impact, but raking the coast.

...

True but the current GFS is further north than the last run.

[numberonepal]

True but the current GFS is further north than the last run.

I don't understand. The 12z GFS is the latest.

[dirtboy]

[MplsSteve]

“Right now, the models are starting to converge, but all points from Ft. Lauderdale to Ft. Pierce are definitely in play... with changes still quite plausible since it’s still 3-4 days out.”

If you had to make an educated guess/roll the dice, etc., where are you thinking landfall will happen?