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To: John S Mosby
Some good news. 12Z Euro has Dorian missing FL landfall and missing CONUS all together.


507 posted on 08/30/2019 11:47:41 AM PDT by numberonepal (WWG1WGA)
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To: numberonepal

That isn’t exactly missing - more like sideswiping


508 posted on 08/30/2019 11:51:36 AM PDT by RightGeek (FUBO and the donkey you rode in on)
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To: numberonepal
12z GFS is showing a more direct impact, but raking the coast.


510 posted on 08/30/2019 11:54:34 AM PDT by numberonepal (WWG1WGA)
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To: numberonepal

Yes, that is the “hand off” that Bernie Rayno Chief Meteorologist for Accuweather was talking about-— that time period when the LOW to the SW of the storm— separates from it and no longer drawing it West. The orange dipping down band represents the Low to the NE North bunched up against a large Midwest High convergance-— creating the “trough” that picks up and draws the storm North.

If this happens faster than the model— ie. if Dorian hasn’t crossed the longitude of Andros Island in the Bahamas- it could skip FL altogether. Tons of rain and tidal things in any case all the way up.


538 posted on 08/30/2019 2:02:57 PM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: numberonepal

BTW Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics can be heard talking about the strange anomaly of the projected “hand off” of the upper level low seen in the Euro model but not the GFS— and called it “strange” and not understandable in the projection. These all being computer projections. Pointed this out last Saturday on his free 14 minute weatherbell.com summary video at the bottom of the page.

Something made him change his mind from the noaa nhc forecast— because as Bernie Rayno says== “actions are being taken, costly massive human actions, on the basis of these projected paths”. For example— if somehow the “handoff “does not occur and Dorian tracks S-SW into the Lower Keys— without prior evacuation-— just monster horrible result.


540 posted on 08/30/2019 2:08:37 PM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: numberonepal

One more— the US Navy knows whats going on. Mayport in JAX full fleet in port egress to sea— go out past Bermuda and then come back in 3 or 4 days. That was this AM... they are leaving.


542 posted on 08/30/2019 2:10:20 PM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: numberonepal

Joe Bastardi today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iu69FSmftHg&feature=youtu.be


567 posted on 08/30/2019 3:56:45 PM PDT by sheikdetailfeather
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