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Posted on 08/28/2019 1:34:36 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Dorian battered St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and brushing Puerto Rico. Taking aim at the Florida Atlantic Coastline, Hurricane Dorian is projected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) at landfall.
Satellite Imagery Dorian
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Florida Radar Loop (with storm track overlay)
Buoy Data with Storm Track overlay
Yes - starting to see notes the NHC is getting even more bullish on the intensity... Jim Cantore just tweeted that they are now expecting a Cat 4 landfall.
Disneyworld may need some repairs after next week...
Rush is going to have to evac the EIB southern command and find a bunker elsewhere.
“Disneyworld may need some repairs after next week”
I have mixed feelings about that...
Regarding Bastardi - good weatherman but mother nature has fooled him among all meteorologists but he does rely on science and is a firm climate change skeptic using pesky facts for his arguments. Just FYI.
I live on a farm in Alva, about 20 miles inland from Ft. Myers. Lots of live oak hammocks and some pines. Though maybe not quite as far inland as you, I always thought we were far enough inland that we would miss the really strong winds.
Irma took a right and headed north northeast at Marco Island, traveled 60 miles north (over land) making a beeline right for Alva. Our little town got the northwestern wall of the eye, strongest part of the storm. Just 7 or 8 miles west of us, towards Ft. Myers, the wind wasn’t nearly as strong. We actually had 150mph gusts coming thru our pastures. Lost many trees. Big ones. Took me all day with big saws to clear a path wide enough to drive a car out. 3 weeks without power. I’ll be happy if I never, ever have to go thru that again. Still haven’t fully recovered/cleaned up.
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Ryan Maue @RyanMaue
I'm concerned that Hurricane #Dorian could move west even more slowly than forecast.
The entire FL peninsula from Miami to Jax should still be prepared for an erratic track ... and very intense Cat 3+
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The reason he's saying this is because of the latest tracks for the European model's 'ensemble' run. Many of those solutions have the storm slowing early and hanging a right turn *before* hitting the East Coast of Florida.
See that tweet here. Yeah - it's one model run, but the Euro is pretty good... certainly better than the GFS. So maybe there's a chance that Florida could escape??
(FWIW: My experience suggests that the models to believe are the ones 3 days out from landfall... which would be about this time tomorrow).
*monkey wrench
Money wrench was more appropriate
At least that was what they were projecting this morning. That's fairly different from what Bastardi is showing. I wish they were all wrong and Dorian would travel over water and dissipate in the north Atlantic.
Yep, that’s it.
There’s a crypt in there that holds the remains of the veterans and likely some civilians who perished in the storm.
Thanks.
That’s great that your daughter and the baby are leaving!
I advised my grandson to take a flight home, but he said he won’t. He’s an Architectural Engineer who witnessed the devastation of Sandy on their barrier island in NJ when he was in high school. It was a great education for him to witness Mother Nature at a young age. I’m still worried for him. I’ve been texting him now that they’re predicting a Cat 4.
The worried grandmother. He’s a doll.
Sounds good.
Two years ago, I bought them Emergency Weather Radios with Smartphone Charger on Amazon. I just reminded them to have them ready.
Our experience with María: It was a very large hurricane with a very small compact eye. Just before landfall it went through an eyewall replacement cycle which weakened the storm a bit, but increased the areal exposure of the worst winds. So, we basically had a 35 mile-wide F3 tornado cross a 35 mile-wide island across the entire length of it.
Time to start convincing my sister to leave her trailer just west of Orlando.
“Many of those solutions have the storm slowing early and hanging a right turn *before* hitting the East Coast of Florida.”
That’s sort of good news. I saw some models yesterday that showed Dorian cutting across Florida, strengthening in the Gulf over the warm water and then going north.
We're still kind of waiting to see where this thing well head before we do a bunch of preparation on our farm. Only so much you can do anyway. Making sure our generator cranks is a priority and have some extra gas to run it. Fill the tub with water and all the jugs we can find. Store any loose items outside to keep them from becoming projectiles.
And then we wait. Good luck to you on this one.
How long will it take for this to reach Obama’s new home on Martha’s Vineyard?
GFS model just in more south ...was the northern outliner
all models now have a stall more less dumping huge amounts of rain over FL..
lake okeechobee may have issues as far as the dike holding up as the eater rises for WEEKS after it passes
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