Posted on 08/19/2019 7:30:11 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
WASHINGTON (AP) — A strong majority, 74%, of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump's economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021.
The economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report released Monday, mostly didn't share Trump's optimistic outlook for the economy, though they generally saw recession coming later than they did in a survey taken in February. Thirty-four percent of the economists surveyed said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That's up from 25% in the February survey.
An additional 38% of those polled predicted that recession will occur next year, down slightly from 42% in February. Another 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year.
In February, 77% of the economists expected a recession either this year, next year or in 2021.
A strong economy is key to the Republican president's 2020 re-election prospects. Consumer confidence has dropped 6.4% since July.
Trump has dismissed concerns about a recession, offering an optimistic outlook for the economy after last week's steep drop in the financial markets. He said Sunday, "I don't think we're having a recession. We're doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut and they're loaded up with money."
Still, Trump on Monday called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by at least a full percentage point "over a fairly short period of time," saying that would make the U.S. economy even better and would quickly boost the flagging global economy.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
As I recall, economists kept seeing “green shoots” in the Obama economy and predicted that the economy was about to take off at any moment. After a couple of years of “green shoots” not sparking a lively economy, they finally settled on calling the Obama slump a “slow recovery” from what could have been a very mild recession had Obama not been elected.
Right now, the economic indicators are all looking very nice. And the economists who keep predicting that the economy will fail because of tariffs seem to not be very accurate. If tariffs hurt Americans so much, then why are other countries the ones who complain about them?
Thank GOD, right, domestic enemies?
FOAD Hussein Heads, and your god the Fraud you rode in on!
So these ignorant dooshbags can STFU already.
So the same economists that predicted the Trump tax cuts would be “too stimulative” now admit that that prediction was wrong and instead are predicting Trump’s tariffs will cause a recession “sometime in the future”. Who pays these people for this kind of worthless unsupported opinion?
Wanna bet who will be right?
98% of economists have predicted 17 of the last three recessions.
And remember - economists have successfully predicted nine of the last five recessions.
99.9% of the surveyed group hope Trump is defeated. But no need to report bias. /s
I thought the recession was happening in 2019. Now it’s been delayed 2 more years. Otay, Buckwheats.
Sad thing is, they are hoping for a recession. The sooner the better.
The actual report is here: NABE August 2019 Economic Policy Survey Released https://files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/2f0b98b4-3c7e-47e3-ade5-9887542aa300.pdf
Always best to check the source.
From page six of the report:
A majority of respondents (56%) believes that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has had an overall negative impact on housing activity over the past 18 months. Approximately a quarter of respondents believes that the changes to the standard, mortgage interest, and state and local tax deductions have had no impact on the housing market, while 7% view the TCJA impact positively.
Panelists overall are against forgiving most or all student debt in the U.S., with a majority (64%) believing this would be a net negative for the U.S. economy. Approximately one-fifth believes that forgiving most or all student debt would be positive for the economy.
Sixty-one percent of survey respondents are in favor of raising the federal minimum wage, currently at $7.25 an hour. Approximately 40%, however, think it should be raised without exception, while 20% believe it should be increased with some exceptions (such as for tipped workers or teenagers). Nineteen percent suggest the federal minimum wage should be abolished, while 11% believe there is no need to raise it.
I love the part about abolishing the minimum wage. Can’t believe they even give that choice.
Can someone screenshot the graph on page six which shows that more respondents actually think the recession will happen later than in the February 2019 survey. They apparently do give them an option of not at all.
A majority of respondents (56%) believes that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has had an overall negative impact on housing activity over the past 18 months.
I suspect 56% of the respondents live in high tax states like New York, Connecticut or California.
President Truman wanted a one handed economists so they couldn’t say “then on the other hand”. Weathermen are better predictors than economist.
Aren’t these the same economists that had every jobs report with Obama as “Unexpected.”
Garbage post from a garbage source spreading a garbage meme
Sheesh at least choose a non MSM participant trying to talk the economy down instead of posting it as anything more than rumors or just plain crap
It worked with Bush Sr. ....
Funny. The original article said 34% I wonder who changed it.
By end of 2021.
So a year after 2020 election.
How convenient.
They know they aren’t going to be able to say Trump caused a recession prior to the election.
But they can say Trump is going to cause one, by the end of 2021.
I see it now. 74% in February, and 33% now.
Yeah, right. What if they throw a recession and nobody comes.
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