Posted on 08/11/2019 11:37:06 PM PDT by Cronos
After the June 2016 vote, Merkel insisted on political carte blanche in looming talks and warned German industry not to harass her with special pleading over their UK business. Managers agreed and, three years on, that agreement has held.
Yet a competing narrative has stabilised itself during the same period in Brexit Britain: that Berlin will yield to its powerful car lobby to avoid a no-deal departure and, if necessary, Germany will sell the Irish down the river to keep the British market open for Daimler, VW and BMW.
Anything may happen between now and October 31st. But there have been no signs so far from Berlin – on or off the record – that the British narrative will come to pass.
Ask around in German car industry circles and you hear the same response. Yes, they would rather not endanger their British sales but, by now, they have already priced in the potential loss of some British customers and have found alternative firms for UK supply chain components. For them, holding the rest of their EU market together is far more important than UK sales.
But even the EU market is not what it once was for them. British customers buy about a fifth of German cars actually made in Germany. Daimler, BMW and VW are more interested in their US and Chinese markets, where local plants supply deep-pocketed locals with their German product.
(Excerpt) Read more at irishtimes.com ...
rephrase?
If you trade sovereignty of individual nations for political and economics reasons you have just lost your nation to the tyranny of the many. It is called socialism that will become Marxism in a very brief time.
ps
The EEC (European Economic Community) was an outstanding success. It was all about free trade in Europe between nations.
Most unfortunately it morphed into the “European Union” which then tried to govern the individual nations of the the now dead EEC. The laws and rights of each individual nation became secondary to those of the European Union. It was domination of nations on steroids via quasi socialist economics.
The UK wisely left the European Union but many in positions of power in the UK government are trying to sabotage the exit. These individuals are defying the will of the people.
If you trade sovereignty of individual nations for political and economics reasons you have just lost your nation to the tyranny of the many. It is called socialism that will become Marxism in a very brief time.
ps
The EEC (European Economic Community) was an outstanding success. It was all about free trade in Europe between nations.
Most unfortunately it morphed into the “European Union” which then tried to govern the individual nations of the the now dead EEC. The laws and rights of each individual nation became secondary to those of the European Union. It was domination of nations on steroids via quasi socialist economics.
The UK wisely left the European Union but many in positions of power in the UK government are trying to sabotage the exit. These individuals are defying the will of the people.
Can you explain how the UK traded its sovereignty? It didn’t and hasn’t. The UK had a veto vote on every confederation matter and used it.
The UK hasn’t left yet - we can only hope that England-Wales leaves on October 31.
Elaborating the headline - Germany’s automakers are not pushing for a deal with England
What happens when the Chinese economy implodes?
Then I guess the US market...
Sheffield Steel rivals Solingen Steel.
Trump has us making steel again.
Sounds like the Irish press is whistling past the graveyard.
Doesn’t matter now. Thanks to Nigel Farage (and the mass defections from the Conservative party) Brexit will happen on the 31st October.
Everyone concerned should be preparing for a WTO environment.
If that includes free trade reciprocity then great. If it doesn’t, then that’s the EU’s choice.
aha, thanks
i wonder if there are investment strategists out there that might busy going long on british stocks and the pound in anticipation of the announcement of a preemptive (pre oct. 31) us-uk trade pact that will help rescue uk from the pre-brexit doldrums.
Everyone has been preparing for a WTO environment since 2018 except for the UK until now.
WTO is the baseline agreed trading arrangements between all members. The UK is a WTO member, as are the other EU members and the EU in its own right.
EU membership builds upon this WTO baseline with new agreements which improve market access, remove tariffs and quotas, increase mutual service recognition as well as enhancing an economic level playing field.
Without the withdrawal agreement, then everything agreed since 1973 will automatically end for the UK.
The problem with relying solely on WTO rules is that most countries have made better deals with their main trading partners. If the UK relies solely on WTO rules to trade with a given target country, it will be at a competitive disadvantage to other countries that have made more comprehensive agreements to ease trade with that target country.
The problem is tariffs.
Under the WTO you must have one tariff for everybody independent of origin though they can differ from product to product
Everything gets the same tariff applied (which ultimately your citizens pay) to trade on your market.
Under WTO you only fix your tariffs which only apply in your country to your citizens.
Other countries will apply their tariffs to your products, potentially locking you out of their markets. But since you need to have one tariff for all you cannot punish or influence individual countries by lowering your tariffs for them and just for them. That is against the rules.
The killer will be the cross-border production
That obliterates any British companies, jobs and products reliant on integrated supply chains since they will have to pay a tariffs (likely more than once) on parts of their product.
If we assume post-Brexit UK has no tariffs then the drawbacks would be that British agriculture and manufacturing would have to compete with the cheapest labour on the planet and would, barring a miracle or a drastic reduction in living standards, that would still mean the tariffs of other states apply.
The free trade deal - the Canada deal is on the table, but the UK didn’t want that.
The problem is, as before, the Irish border.
If Boris throws the DUP under the red NHS bus, then he can keep NI in a customs union and take the rUK out - win:win for the English and the Irish
I don’t see any movement indicating that. Doesn’t mean it’s not happening on the sly, but it’s not visible.
you could place your bets on that by buying British stock
Though also lets look at this
the pre-Brexit doldrums. This is caused by the uncertainty of the trade deal with the rest of the EU - even if the USA gave the UK a sweetheart deal it won’t help in the short term the companies left floundering in the event of a no deal. They can’t switch their supply chains, suppliers and markets overnight.
The US accounts for 8% of UK exports, while the rest of the EU accounts for 54%. No sweetheart deal will assuage the short-term and mid-term effects of no-deal Brexit.
in the long-term a sweetheart deal would help UK companies, but you’d need to go really long - 3+ years. And that’d remain a gamble, but one with more risk due to its longer horizon.
What type of a deal would you think would help the UK firms who are targeted at other EU markets and suppliers
The UK will move to WTO rules with the EU, and arrange free trade deals with everyone else. Because - being out of the Customs Union - they are now free to do so.
There can be a free trade deal with the EU, if they’re interested.
If the EU wants to place a hard border at the Irish Border, that is up to the EU. The UK won’t be doing that.
Returning to the article: I wonder what the Irish Times makes of Alice Weidel’s recent remarks in the German Parliament? She at least is under no illusions about the impact on German trade.
Why do you want so much for England not to leave?
Is it persona? Business?
If it is not MY business I understand :)
This has been going on so long that I forgot what the initial reason was for leaving, to be Frank.
Dear American colleagues: here is the impressive Alice Weidel speaking to the German Paliament back in March.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grliNk9Mqz4&feature=youtu.be
It’s reasonable for FReepers to not care about EU politics, so let me sweeten the link.
For a politician, Weidel is a stone-cold fox. Watch her rake Merkel across the coals :0)
The British proceed from a position of weakness when they should not.
Cut the ties with the EU and then negotiate.....trying to do it the other way around gives away all of the UK’s bargaining chips.
Weidel makes a point that I’ve also seen on Zerohedge.
I don’t know how true it is, but here is the gist of it:
When the UK leaves, then Germany loses its ability to maintain a blocking minority in the European Council of Ministers.
Without the UK’s 13% of the vote, Germany and its natural prudential allies (Denmark, Austria, Netherlands) will no longer be able to achieve the necessary 35% of the vote.
If true, this means that the many ‘taker’ countries of the EU will at last be able to plunder the EU/German treasury.
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