Posted on 07/30/2019 6:12:30 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
House Republicans plotting to win back their majority in Congress fear they are on the brink of a massive wave of retirements that could force them to play defense in a high-stakes presidential election year.
Three House Republicans said last week they would not seek another term next year, catching party strategists off guard. Those announcements came earlier than in a typical election cycle, when members who are ready to hang up their voting cards usually wait until after the August recess or after the Christmas break.
Republicans in Congress strategizing to win back the House say the rush to the exits reflects the depressing reality of life in the minority and a pessimistic view of the GOP’s chances of regaining the majority.
“We are in the minority. That is never much fun in the House,” said one senior Republican member of Congress, who asked for anonymity to provide a candid assessment. “The odds are against us retaking the majority.”
Transitioning from the all-powerful majority to the back-bench minority can refocus one’s outlook on public service, said Tom Davis, a former Virginia congressman who ran the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“Moving from the majority to the minority changes your mindset about why am I here? Am I getting things done?” Davis said. “It’s a very frustrating life for some of these members right now. There’s been no pay raise for 11 years. You’ve got to maintain two households.”
The job of serving in Congress itself has changed in recent years. Members of Congress now routinely skip town hall meetings to avoid being confronted by angry constituents, they are frequently asked to defend President Trump’s Twitter habits, and the House Republican conference is increasingly influenced by a small group of hard-right conservatives.
“Serving in the era of Trump has few rewards. He has made an already hostile political environment worse. Every day there is some indefensible tweet or comment to defend or explain. It is exhausting and often embarrassing,” the member of Congress said. Even if Republicans were to win back the majority, “our edge would be narrow which means we would live under the tyranny of the Freedom Caucus. Frankly I wonder if this conference is capable of governing.”
Republican strategists say they are bracing for a new wave of exits after members check in with their families over the August recess. Two dozen Republicans won their reelection bids in 2018 by fewer than five percentage points; another 25 won by fewer than ten points.
“There are going to be a lot more [retirements] to come,” said one consultant who works for House Republicans. “Between people finding themselves having to actually work hard for the first time in their long, lazy careers and members who came in in the majority and now hate life in the minority, it's just getting started.”
Two of the members who announced their retirements last week — Reps. Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.) and Martha Roby (R-Ala.) — represent deep-red districts where their successor will almost certainly be chosen in the Republican primary.
But a third, Rep. Pete Olson (R-Texas), holds a seat that is likely to be competitive. Olson won election to his final term by just five percentage points in 2018, and Democrats have signaled that districts like his, in the rapidly-growing Houston suburbs, are their prime targets.
Six Republicans have now said they will not seek reelection next year. Two more, Reps. Bradley Byrne (R-Ala.) and Greg Gianforte (R-Mont.), are running for a different office.
The National Republican Congressional Committee is keeping a close eye on members who represent potentially vulnerable districts through its Patriot Program. Chris Pack, a spokesman for the NRCC, said they do not anticipate a rush of departures in the coming months.
"It's just a matter of keeping the conference engaged, and that's what Chairman [Tom] Emmer (R-Minn.) is trying to do," Pack said.
Democrats will try to make life uncomfortable for those Republicans who won the narrowest races in 2018. Already, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has highlighted 19 Republicans they say are on their retirement watch list — including two, Olson and Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Ga.), who have said they won’t run again.
The next tipping point could come in September, when voters in North Carolina head to the polls in a special election meant to fill a vacant seat.
Republican Mark Harris won the seat in a 2018 election marred by absentee ballot fraud, an election the state Board of Elections overturned. Private polling shows a close race between state Sen. Dan Bishop (R) and Iraq war veteran Dan McCready (D).
“Expect more [retirements] if Republicans lose NC-09,” said another Republican strategist involved in House races.
History argues against House Republicans’ chances of winning back their majority in a presidential year. The last time a party lost the majority in a midterm only to win it back two years later came in 1948, when Harry Truman won election to a full term and carried the House with him.
No party has gone from the minority to the majority in a presidential election year since Republicans won a narrow majority in 1952, the year Dwight Eisenhower won the presidency.
More immediate historical precedent suggests Republicans might fall even farther into the minority. President Trump’s approval ratings remain mired in the 40s, and some Republicans in Congress quietly worry he is headed for defeat next year. Others are simply tired of being asked to answer for every tweet.
“It’s way too early to tell what the [political] dynamic will be, but Trump doesn’t seem to be adding to the equation at this point. He’s doing a lot with his base, but he needs to get beyond that base,” Davis said. “President Trump promised to be a change agent, and he is. He’s torn up the old rule book, and a lot of members aren’t used to playing by these rules.”
Davis said the political climate would weigh on members’ minds as they contemplate their futures.
“Nobody,” he said, “wants to go out the hard way.”
If you really want to see a “tsunami” of retirements, introduce term limits.
House GOP Fears...
Therein lies the problem.
Thank you for the clear explanation.
Nah he wont so no worries
Two nits. First, another 2018 incumbent that, had he retired, would have resulted in a certain GOP hold of his seat was Dana Rohrabacher. Second, the GOP incumbent in PA-01 is *Brian* Fitzpatrick, not his brother Mike (who was Brian’s predecessor).
You don’t think Trump will carry the Bustos seat again in 2020 ? I personally think Hillary performed better in IL in 2016 than another Dem would’ve, and there’s no reason Trump shouldn’t improve there (however unlikely to carry the state simply because of “Crook” County).
Newt recruited people - who does that now?
Doh, I forgot to mention the most obvious one (Dana R).
As for the brothers, I’m certain I made that mistake before. I guess it never fully sunk in. ;p
He certainly COULD improve upon his performance in the district, sure.
But I would hardly be surprised if it went the other way. There appears to have been massive fraud in Rockford and Peoria. Trump won Winnebego county and then it mysteriously shifted to Hillary. And now we have a Fat Governor who will be working hard to F us over and gin up machine votes in Rock Island County to try and get rid of the Republican State Senator there.
The majority of the democrat gains, in 2018, were in districts that usually elected Republicans, in the last 30 years. That includes at least two districts, each, in CA, IL, VA, and NJ. In 2020, Republicans will gain 24 seats.
Which seats do you expect to regain to fulfill your prediction of 24 ?
I don’t remember all of them. It will include IL’s 6th and 14th Districts, OK’s 5th District, three districts in CA (including the one that Darrel Issa had for 18 years), and a district, each, in KS, MN, VA, NJ, and PA.
That’s only 11 seats. The problem I must reiterate with respect to California is that the GOP has not ‘officially’ defeated a Dem incumbent since 1994. Not one. They’ve taken 19 of our 26 seats since the 1996 elections. The Dems are well-funded for all of the 7 seats they took alone in 2018. They are serious about taking those remaining 7 seats, and could very well steal 4-5 of them.
I’ve stated before I do not trust the election results out of CA whatsoever. The Dems are in absolute control and can do whatever they please with counting, harvesting, et al.
As for the rest:
“IL’s 6th and 14th Districts,”
The formerly heavy and historically GOP 6th did not even make my list of competitive seats for 2020. The district, which although went for Willard in 2012, Trump got a paltry 43% there (I considered only districts where he got 45% or higher). Roskam only got 46% in ‘18, losing by an embarrassing 7%. Even worse is that the 2 candidates that are running on the GOP side are going to harm each other that I believe Casten should win again handily. Ex-Lt Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti and Jeanne Ives (who probably did beat Rauner in the Guv primary last year) will unlikely coalesce behind whomever wins. They are also both badly underfunded.
As for IL-14th, the Dem is well funded. Jim Oberweis can self-fund, though he’s still well behind in fundraising and another candidate who has raised $300k is also running in the GOP primary. Also a potential to get ugly.
OK-5th: Businesswoman Terry Neese has $531k, currently the leader in fundraising, though State Sen. Stephanie Bice has $181k. Dem incumbent still has almost $1 mil.
KS-3rd, Freshman Sharice Davids has almost $1mil. She has no opponent as of yet (bad sign for the GOP).
I think we have the best shot to beat Colin Peterson in MN-7th after 30 years in office. MN-2nd Freshman Angie Craig has almost $900k. She has no opponent at present, though fmr. Rep. Jason Lewis might seek a rematch.
Of the 2 potential competitive seats in VA:
VA-2nd, Freshman Elaine Luria has $858k. Predecessor Scott Taylor, who was also just a freshman, didn’t get a handle on the seat, and isn’t well-regarded by Conservatives. He has decided to run against Sen. Mark Warner next year instead. As a result, no Republicans are being floated at present for this Trump seat.
VA-7th, Freshman Abigail Spanberger has almost $1.1 million. This is also a Trump district that hadn’t elected a Democrat since 1978 (but a lot of the Cantor RINOs obviously went for her to take out Conservative Dave Brat). Brat won’t be seeking a rematch, and is now at Liberty University. 2 Republicans have declared, with Tina Ramirez, a Conservative activist, having $100k. Others may jump in.
5 potential competitive seats in NJ:
NJ-2nd, Freshman Jeff Van Drew has $748k. Three Republicans have declared, but no $$ is listed yet.
NJ-3rd, Freshman Andy Kim has over $1.1 mil. At least 10 Republicans are being floated (the ex-Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno and 2 ex-Congressmen, Jon Runyan and former incumbent Tom MacArthur), but none has declared.
NJ-5th, Sophomore Josh Gottheimer has a whopping $1.7 mil. Leading in the $$ race is Frank Pallotta, an investment banker (whose name is similar to another NJ Dem, Frank Pallone), but he has just $145k.
NJ-7th, Freshman Tom Malinowski has over $1.1 mil. Leading candidate on the GOP side is Sen. Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr., scion of the Kean family. This was a GOP district from 1957-2019 (last won by the corrupt future Dem Sen. Harrison “Pete” Williams of Abscam infamy in 1954). Kean has not reported any $$ yet.
NJ-11th, Freshman Mikie Sherrill has over $1.1 mil. A whopping 13 Republicans are being floated for this seat which had been GOP from 1985-2019, including former First Lady Mary Pat Christie, but none has declared, yet.
Pennsylvania — This is the real bitch where the corrupt Demonrat state supreme court explicitly and illegally stole 4 seats outright. I cited 3 where the GOP should try to target, including the 7th, freshman Susan Ellis Wild, who has $576k. Her ‘18 opponent is running again, Dean Browning, and he has $141k. It’s hard to tell what Trump got here exactly, but it has to be close.
PA-8th, Matt Cartwright should also be a target, he has $559k. This is a more Republican seat than he previously occupied. Luzerne County D.A. Stefanie Salavantis is being floated as a potential opponent.
PA-17th, Conor Lamb should be another target. He lucked out in winning a special election against a weak Republican in the prior GOP 18th seat. He won by 12.5% in this new 17th. He has $481k. His opponent, Scott Timko, is a businessman, but appears 2nd tier with less than $15k.
I would wager that very few voters in PA-01 even realize that Brian Fitzpatrick and Mike Fitzpatrick aren’t the same person. Both are RINOs, but Brian is much worse. If you look at the lists of endorsements for both candidates in 2018, you would conclude that there were actually two democRats running.
Mike and Brian Fitzpatrick are the only pro-lifers to have represented the PA-08 during the past 35 years. While they certainly deviate from Republican orthodoxy from time to time (particularly Brian, who has been very disappointing in many votes this Congress), I wouldn’t call them RINOs—there are marked differences between their voting records and those of suburban-Philly Democrats.
She has one, though I don't know how serious she will be: Disability rights advocate launches campaign to unseat Rep. Sharice Davids in Kansas
They're also trying to get Amanda Adkins, former Kansas Republican Party chair to run.
I am not afraid. Seems to me at this point only a true RINO would even want to retire now.
Thanks. When I assembled the info the other week, there were no candidates listed against Davids.
Adkins has the Brownback baggage hanging around her neck, which will not play well in Johnson and Wyandotte. Weir is an unknown who will need all the funding she can get.
If Kobach wins the nomination for the senate seat then the people of the 3rd district will crawl over broken glass to get to the polls to vote against him. That'll only help Davids.
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