House GOP fears retirement wave will lead to tsunami (2020)

The Hill ^ | 07/30/19 | Reid Wilson

[Berosus]

If you really want to see a “tsunami” of retirements, introduce term limits.

[TADSLOS]

House GOP Fears...

Therein lies the problem.

[devane617]

Thank you for the clear explanation.

[italianquaker]

Nah he wont so no worries

[AuH2ORepublican]

Two nits. First, another 2018 incumbent that, had he retired, would have resulted in a certain GOP hold of his seat was Dana Rohrabacher. Second, the GOP incumbent in PA-01 is *Brian* Fitzpatrick, not his brother Mike (who was Brian’s predecessor).

[fieldmarshaldj]

You don’t think Trump will carry the Bustos seat again in 2020 ? I personally think Hillary performed better in IL in 2016 than another Dem would’ve, and there’s no reason Trump shouldn’t improve there (however unlikely to carry the state simply because of “Crook” County).

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

As for the premise of this article, retirements, they were vastly overstated as a reason for losing the House in 2018. We lost 30 GD incumbents.

Very true. I get a little irritated when I read that retirements were the prime cause of the House flipping in 2018. A lot of incumbents fell. We had 2 open seats in Virginia and held them. The 3 seats we lost were all incumbents.

But the fact remains the map still favors us, IF Trump is winning he’ll carry the majority of districts. There is little reason to expect very many of them will split there tickets. I have trouble envisioning Trump winning and not bringing at least a narrow majority, this is not 1988.

I should hope so. I worry though that B-list/incompetent candidates and lack of money can still make a difference. It's not hard to imagine low single digit Trump seats narrowly re-electing Democratic congressmen.

So I’m not worried at all about people like Pete Olson retiring, to the extent his district is competitive, it’s competitive whether he’s running or not (after all he a closeish call).

There was some talk on the RRH Elections blog that Twitter chatter claimed that Pete Olson had suffered a stroke and wasn't up to the challenge of another campaign. So probably a plus for us that he didn't run again.

[GOPJ]

Ryan is sitting in one of the trending Trump White working class districts (which previously sent populist Jim Traficant and last elected a Republican in 1982). This seat should be targeted, but the GOP doesn’t appear to have a top candidate.

Newt recruited people - who does that now?

[Impy]

Doh, I forgot to mention the most obvious one (Dana R).

As for the brothers, I’m certain I made that mistake before. I guess it never fully sunk in. ;p

[Impy]

He certainly COULD improve upon his performance in the district, sure.

But I would hardly be surprised if it went the other way. There appears to have been massive fraud in Rockford and Peoria. Trump won Winnebego county and then it mysteriously shifted to Hillary. And now we have a Fat Governor who will be working hard to F us over and gin up machine votes in Rock Island County to try and get rid of the Republican State Senator there.

[PhilCollins]

The majority of the democrat gains, in 2018, were in districts that usually elected Republicans, in the last 30 years. That includes at least two districts, each, in CA, IL, VA, and NJ. In 2020, Republicans will gain 24 seats.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Which seats do you expect to regain to fulfill your prediction of 24 ?

[PhilCollins]

I don’t remember all of them. It will include IL’s 6th and 14th Districts, OK’s 5th District, three districts in CA (including the one that Darrel Issa had for 18 years), and a district, each, in KS, MN, VA, NJ, and PA.

[fieldmarshaldj]

That’s only 11 seats. The problem I must reiterate with respect to California is that the GOP has not ‘officially’ defeated a Dem incumbent since 1994. Not one. They’ve taken 19 of our 26 seats since the 1996 elections. The Dems are well-funded for all of the 7 seats they took alone in 2018. They are serious about taking those remaining 7 seats, and could very well steal 4-5 of them.

I’ve stated before I do not trust the election results out of CA whatsoever. The Dems are in absolute control and can do whatever they please with counting, harvesting, et al.

As for the rest:

“IL’s 6th and 14th Districts,”

The formerly heavy and historically GOP 6th did not even make my list of competitive seats for 2020. The district, which although went for Willard in 2012, Trump got a paltry 43% there (I considered only districts where he got 45% or higher). Roskam only got 46% in ‘18, losing by an embarrassing 7%. Even worse is that the 2 candidates that are running on the GOP side are going to harm each other that I believe Casten should win again handily. Ex-Lt Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti and Jeanne Ives (who probably did beat Rauner in the Guv primary last year) will unlikely coalesce behind whomever wins. They are also both badly underfunded.

As for IL-14th, the Dem is well funded. Jim Oberweis can self-fund, though he’s still well behind in fundraising and another candidate who has raised $300k is also running in the GOP primary. Also a potential to get ugly.

OK-5th: Businesswoman Terry Neese has $531k, currently the leader in fundraising, though State Sen. Stephanie Bice has $181k. Dem incumbent still has almost $1 mil.

KS-3rd, Freshman Sharice Davids has almost $1mil. She has no opponent as of yet (bad sign for the GOP).

I think we have the best shot to beat Colin Peterson in MN-7th after 30 years in office. MN-2nd Freshman Angie Craig has almost $900k. She has no opponent at present, though fmr. Rep. Jason Lewis might seek a rematch.

Of the 2 potential competitive seats in VA:

VA-2nd, Freshman Elaine Luria has $858k. Predecessor Scott Taylor, who was also just a freshman, didn’t get a handle on the seat, and isn’t well-regarded by Conservatives. He has decided to run against Sen. Mark Warner next year instead. As a result, no Republicans are being floated at present for this Trump seat.

VA-7th, Freshman Abigail Spanberger has almost $1.1 million. This is also a Trump district that hadn’t elected a Democrat since 1978 (but a lot of the Cantor RINOs obviously went for her to take out Conservative Dave Brat). Brat won’t be seeking a rematch, and is now at Liberty University. 2 Republicans have declared, with Tina Ramirez, a Conservative activist, having $100k. Others may jump in.

5 potential competitive seats in NJ:

NJ-2nd, Freshman Jeff Van Drew has $748k. Three Republicans have declared, but no $$ is listed yet.

NJ-3rd, Freshman Andy Kim has over $1.1 mil. At least 10 Republicans are being floated (the ex-Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno and 2 ex-Congressmen, Jon Runyan and former incumbent Tom MacArthur), but none has declared.

NJ-5th, Sophomore Josh Gottheimer has a whopping $1.7 mil. Leading in the $$ race is Frank Pallotta, an investment banker (whose name is similar to another NJ Dem, Frank Pallone), but he has just $145k.

NJ-7th, Freshman Tom Malinowski has over $1.1 mil. Leading candidate on the GOP side is Sen. Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr., scion of the Kean family. This was a GOP district from 1957-2019 (last won by the corrupt future Dem Sen. Harrison “Pete” Williams of Abscam infamy in 1954). Kean has not reported any $$ yet.

NJ-11th, Freshman Mikie Sherrill has over $1.1 mil. A whopping 13 Republicans are being floated for this seat which had been GOP from 1985-2019, including former First Lady Mary Pat Christie, but none has declared, yet.

Pennsylvania — This is the real bitch where the corrupt Demonrat state supreme court explicitly and illegally stole 4 seats outright. I cited 3 where the GOP should try to target, including the 7th, freshman Susan Ellis Wild, who has $576k. Her ‘18 opponent is running again, Dean Browning, and he has $141k. It’s hard to tell what Trump got here exactly, but it has to be close.

PA-8th, Matt Cartwright should also be a target, he has $559k. This is a more Republican seat than he previously occupied. Luzerne County D.A. Stefanie Salavantis is being floated as a potential opponent.

PA-17th, Conor Lamb should be another target. He lucked out in winning a special election against a weak Republican in the prior GOP 18th seat. He won by 12.5% in this new 17th. He has $481k. His opponent, Scott Timko, is a businessman, but appears 2nd tier with less than $15k.

[Fresh Wind]

I would wager that very few voters in PA-01 even realize that Brian Fitzpatrick and Mike Fitzpatrick aren’t the same person. Both are RINOs, but Brian is much worse. If you look at the lists of endorsements for both candidates in 2018, you would conclude that there were actually two democRats running.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Mike and Brian Fitzpatrick are the only pro-lifers to have represented the PA-08 during the past 35 years. While they certainly deviate from Republican orthodoxy from time to time (particularly Brian, who has been very disappointing in many votes this Congress), I wouldn’t call them RINOs—there are marked differences between their voting records and those of suburban-Philly Democrats.

[DoodleDawg]

KS-3rd, Freshman Sharice Davids has almost $1mil. She has no opponent as of yet (bad sign for the GOP).

She has one, though I don't know how serious she will be: Disability rights advocate launches campaign to unseat Rep. Sharice Davids in Kansas

They're also trying to get Amanda Adkins, former Kansas Republican Party chair to run.

[central_va]

I am not afraid. Seems to me at this point only a true RINO would even want to retire now.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Thanks. When I assembled the info the other week, there were no candidates listed against Davids.

[DoodleDawg]

Thanks. When I assembled the info the other week, there were no candidates listed against Davids.

Adkins has the Brownback baggage hanging around her neck, which will not play well in Johnson and Wyandotte. Weir is an unknown who will need all the funding she can get.

If Kobach wins the nomination for the senate seat then the people of the 3rd district will crawl over broken glass to get to the polls to vote against him. That'll only help Davids.