Posted on 07/18/2019 5:00:18 PM PDT by nwrep
Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)
Bitecofer’s model has concluded that it matters not who the Democratic presidential nominee is -- “unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump in the general election.
The only unexpected factors that might make Bitecofer revisit her Trump-loses prediction: the launch of a well-funded independent campaign by someone like Howard Schultz, the sudden onset of an economic recession, a war with Iran or a large-scale terrorist attack. “Otherwise,” she says, “the country’s hyper-partisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone.”
“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”
Sounds like Bernie is leading the pack and the Establishment doesn’t like it.
Trump will lose if the coming massive vote fraud is not stopped.
The left is convinced he’s the terminator and by hook and by crook will go all out in 2020. So....there is no way Trump will win in a fair election. because the right doesn’t fight dirty.
Anderson was the 3rd party candidate in 1980, not 1976.
When a contest is more cheatable such as in 2018 (those cars full of alleged late votes that appeared out of nowhere all over the place), things can be “predicted” indeed.
Yessearchstillworks
Yes, Clinton won because of Perot. And once he was in, he won again also in part because of Perot but also the power of incumbency.
Trump is polarizing, but that doesn’t mean pragmatic arguments won’t be a factor for the I voters in the center.
““unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination — other than possibly Bernie, that is — will defeat Trump in the general election.”
Bernie is not the only disruptor. Kamala is certainly a disruptor. Even Biden will try out the disruptor act for size.
Ping.
Carnac the Magnificent ?
Trump is the last president. It doesn’t matter if they “win”.
Yes, or, contrary to what this woman says - the Dem candidate may not attract as many votes as HRC did.
At the end of election night in 2018 Rachael was off by quite a bit. Within a week of Democrat post-election vote counting her forecast was right on. Democrat vote stealing carried the day.
She wasn’t 100% correct.
That’s just it, I am not arrogantly dismissing this I am confidently dismissing it. That’s why I posted “the smart position” for 2016 in my post. :)
They still haven't figured out that Trump exists outside their formulas.
Hi Rachel, let’s make a cash bet please. How much you got? That much.
1. 2020 is not a mid-term election.
2. The date would need to be July 2020. It is not July 2020.
3. This is from "The Oregonian" but of course there is no bias in the reporting, right?
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