[Dr. Sivana]

Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election.

There is an old scam done by "experts" who take money for football predictions. They offer a free lock to new customers. If they get 100 calls, 50 get the home team, 50 get the visitors. Half of the customers will be impressed.

One called off-year election does not necessarily translate into a model that will work on an entirely different dynamic. The more traditional models ("It's the economy", "You can't beat something with nothing", "incumbency advantage") are more likely to be accurate.

[The Pack Knight]

Right. Nate Silver was their hero for correctly predicting the 2012 election, but you barely hear about him after his failure in 2016