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Trump will lose 2020 per unique prediction model that nailed 2018 midterm results
Oregonian ^ | July 18, 2019 | Douglas Perry

Posted on 07/18/2019 5:00:18 PM PDT by nwrep

Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)

Bitecofer’s model has concluded that it matters not who the Democratic presidential nominee is -- “unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump in the general election.

The only unexpected factors that might make Bitecofer revisit her Trump-loses prediction: the launch of a well-funded independent campaign by someone like Howard Schultz, the sudden onset of an economic recession, a war with Iran or a large-scale terrorist attack. “Otherwise,” she says, “the country’s hyper-partisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone.”

“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2020; electionfraud; fakenews; fakepolls; liberalagenda; notfrontpagenews; tds; trump2020; voterfraud
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To: nwrep

Sounds like Bernie is leading the pack and the Establishment doesn’t like it.


21 posted on 07/18/2019 5:07:41 PM PDT by dgbrown
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To: chajin

Trump will lose if the coming massive vote fraud is not stopped.


22 posted on 07/18/2019 5:07:46 PM PDT by newfreep ("INSIDE EVERY PROGRESSIVE IS A TOTALITARIAN SCREAMING TO GET OUT" - DAVID HOROWITZ)
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To: nwrep

The left is convinced he’s the terminator and by hook and by crook will go all out in 2020. So....there is no way Trump will win in a fair election. because the right doesn’t fight dirty.


23 posted on 07/18/2019 5:07:46 PM PDT by Ikeon (Are you going to flap your lips until I die of boredom or are you gonna shoot me?)
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To: chajin

Anderson was the 3rd party candidate in 1980, not 1976.


24 posted on 07/18/2019 5:07:54 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Okeydoker

When a contest is more cheatable such as in 2018 (those cars full of alleged late votes that appeared out of nowhere all over the place), things can be “predicted” indeed.


25 posted on 07/18/2019 5:08:04 PM PDT by Olog-hai ("No Republican, no matter how liberal, is going to woo a Democratic vote." -- Ronald Reagan, 1960)
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To: nwrep

Yessearchstillworks


26 posted on 07/18/2019 5:08:11 PM PDT by bigbob (Trust Trump. Trust the Plan.)
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The Prophet:


27 posted on 07/18/2019 5:08:20 PM PDT by Rio
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To: chajin

Yes, Clinton won because of Perot. And once he was in, he won again also in part because of Perot but also the power of incumbency.

Trump is polarizing, but that doesn’t mean pragmatic arguments won’t be a factor for the I voters in the center.


28 posted on 07/18/2019 5:08:40 PM PDT by monkeyshine
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To: nwrep

““unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination — other than possibly Bernie, that is — will defeat Trump in the general election.”

Bernie is not the only disruptor. Kamala is certainly a disruptor. Even Biden will try out the disruptor act for size.


29 posted on 07/18/2019 5:08:41 PM PDT by plain talk
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To: LS

Ping.


30 posted on 07/18/2019 5:09:00 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar
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To: nwrep

Carnac the Magnificent ?


31 posted on 07/18/2019 5:09:06 PM PDT by butlerweave
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To: nwrep

Trump is the last president. It doesn’t matter if they “win”.


32 posted on 07/18/2019 5:09:28 PM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: CodeToad

Yes, or, contrary to what this woman says - the Dem candidate may not attract as many votes as HRC did.


33 posted on 07/18/2019 5:09:40 PM PDT by monkeyshine
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To: nwrep

At the end of election night in 2018 Rachael was off by quite a bit. Within a week of Democrat post-election vote counting her forecast was right on. Democrat vote stealing carried the day.


34 posted on 07/18/2019 5:09:51 PM PDT by pleasenotcalifornia
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To: Okeydoker

She wasn’t 100% correct.


35 posted on 07/18/2019 5:09:52 PM PDT by Frapster ("Good night, Westley. Good work. Sleep well. I'll most likely kill you in the morning.")
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To: Okeydoker

That’s just it, I am not arrogantly dismissing this I am confidently dismissing it. That’s why I posted “the smart position” for 2016 in my post. :)


36 posted on 07/18/2019 5:10:35 PM PDT by TigersEye (This is the age of the death of reason.)
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To: nwrep
Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election.

There is an old scam done by "experts" who take money for football predictions. They offer a free lock to new customers. If they get 100 calls, 50 get the home team, 50 get the visitors. Half of the customers will be impressed.

One called off-year election does not necessarily translate into a model that will work on an entirely different dynamic. The more traditional models ("It's the economy", "You can't beat something with nothing", "incumbency advantage") are more likely to be accurate.
37 posted on 07/18/2019 5:11:15 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana ("...a choice between Woke-fevered Democrats and Koch-funded Republicans is insufficient."-Mark Steyn)
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To: nwrep
Trump didn't run for anything in 2018 so any formula does not apply.

They still haven't figured out that Trump exists outside their formulas.

38 posted on 07/18/2019 5:11:50 PM PDT by dead (Our next president is going to be sooooo boring.)
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To: nwrep

Hi Rachel, let’s make a cash bet please. How much you got? That much.


39 posted on 07/18/2019 5:11:51 PM PDT by thoughtomator (The Clinton Coup attempt was a worse attack on the USA than was 9/11)
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To: nwrep
perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election.

1. 2020 is not a mid-term election.

2. The date would need to be July 2020. It is not July 2020.

3. This is from "The Oregonian" but of course there is no bias in the reporting, right?

.

40 posted on 07/18/2019 5:12:38 PM PDT by TLI ( ITINERIS IMPENDEO VALHALLA)
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