Posted on 07/13/2019 7:42:39 AM PDT by madprof98
Is there a shy Trump voter factor the way there used to be “shy Tory factor” in polls? Probably.
Let’s say the shy Trump voters are worth a five-point swing in favor of Trump compared to the most recent numbers in key states. In a matchup against Joe Biden, Trump would still lose Michigan, lose Pennsylvania, and lose Wisconsin, as well as losing the national popular vote by a slightly larger margin than in 2016. If Biden won those three states, and kept Hillary Clinton’s states, he’s at 278 electoral votes and Trump would be a one-term president.
If you’re wondering about the other likely swing states, with a five point swing, Trump would still win Ohio. The limited number of polls in Florida range from a tie to nine point lead for Biden, and North Carolina has an even wider range. Iowa would probably be close.
All of this is when the economy is rocking and rolling; there’s no guarantee that the economy will be doing as well in 15 months. To feel good about Trump’s odds in those states, you must assume his shy supporters are worth a swing of 8 to 10 percentage points from the current numbers.
The “shy Trump voter” effect probably varies from state to state. The point is, in most of the big battleground states, Trump doesn’t need to do slightly better than his current poll numbers. He needs to do way better than his current poll numbers, even when you give him a generous assessment of hidden support that isn’t showing up in opinion surveys but will in show up polling places.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
This is America, not some third world country where citizens must cower and fear to speak out.
Why would anyone in the America whose Constitution, for over 200 years, has protected "freedom of conscience," "freedom of speech" and "freedom of expression" as basic and inalienable rights, be "shy" about expressing their political preferences? The American Declaration of Independence and Constitution of the United States were forged out of a longing for future generations to be free, not intimidated into submission to a wicked ideology which would demand group-think and group-speak! Would that "shy" excuse and inaction not be an acknowledgement that some tyrannical and alien force had imposed itself on the body politic?
There is no need to be "shy" about freedom! If the ideas of liberty do not apply to public discourse in the public square, then freedom already has been lost!
Were that it be so ! Thanks :)
We can't use the Reagan situation in 1983 as a template for this. We were still in the early phase of recovering from a very deep recession at that point. By the following year the very powerful recovery was apparent to most.
The Trump campaign needs to run lots of ads during the primary season making the case that the economy's strength is due to changes in policies under Trump - and that the economy was lousy under Obama. The Dems have put out this fairy tale that the economy was strong when Obama left office and they repeat it constantly. That has to be directly challenged and destroyed. Just repeating how good the economy is won't work.
They should run ads building up Pres. Trump on other accomplishments, like energy production, rebuilding defense etc. during the primaries.
IOW, don't wait till the Dems have a nominee and then start attacking him/her. They need to build up Trump's numbers first. The primary season is the perfect time to do that.
Shoot the messenger.
The Dems have created this fairy tale that the economy was doing well when Obama left office. Lots of people believe it. I expect the Dem nominee/media to repeat it a lot. In fact I expect the nominee, probably Biden, to turn attempts by Pres. Trump to take credit for the economy into a liability, e.g. “He’s lying again! Can you believe this liar?”.
More anti-Trump nonsense. Newt is saying 2020 is shaping up to be a blowout.
Trump hasn’t lost a single voter from 2016. We’re going to see a lot of new Trump voters in 2020 too. The opposing party is running on nothing but hatred and entitlement. Those are both big losers for the rats, but they’ll never learn.
All the polling numbers mean absolutely nothing at this point.
Gerghaty is The Establishment.
Foad.
Give Trump the five points for the shy voters and another five because all these polls at this point are asking “adults” or “registered voters” rather than the more reliable “likely voters”, and he’ll take Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and two or three more swing states for a comfortable win......
I hasten to remind everyone that despite the good economy,the 3 battleground states, PA, MI and WI voted mostly for DEMOCRATS in 2018 resulting in a Democrat takeover of the house. The polls predicted this and the polls were correct.
Ignore the polls at your peril.
Not necessarily a majority or citizens voting but quite possibly, even likely, a majority of the votes counted in the major cities in each state. 16 and 18 were trial runs in selected cities to see if the SocDems could get away with it. They succeeded smoothly except in Florida where the count was left to incompetents. There was no blowback to the fraud, no penalty. It will be rolled out in all major markets in 2020.
Explain the 2018 midterms.
Your reply should have been, “yes I think Trump should be more like Obama for getting a Nobel peace pride for peace and got us into more wars. We need more ISIS and Arab Springs, and more unemployment where people stay home and watch TV in air conditioned houses creating more greenhouse gases. But to be honest, the real problem is you whiney pussys afraid of a real man like Trump!”
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