Posted on 07/13/2019 7:42:39 AM PDT by madprof98
Is there a shy Trump voter factor the way there used to be “shy Tory factor” in polls? Probably.
Let’s say the shy Trump voters are worth a five-point swing in favor of Trump compared to the most recent numbers in key states. In a matchup against Joe Biden, Trump would still lose Michigan, lose Pennsylvania, and lose Wisconsin, as well as losing the national popular vote by a slightly larger margin than in 2016. If Biden won those three states, and kept Hillary Clinton’s states, he’s at 278 electoral votes and Trump would be a one-term president.
If you’re wondering about the other likely swing states, with a five point swing, Trump would still win Ohio. The limited number of polls in Florida range from a tie to nine point lead for Biden, and North Carolina has an even wider range. Iowa would probably be close.
All of this is when the economy is rocking and rolling; there’s no guarantee that the economy will be doing as well in 15 months. To feel good about Trump’s odds in those states, you must assume his shy supporters are worth a swing of 8 to 10 percentage points from the current numbers.
The “shy Trump voter” effect probably varies from state to state. The point is, in most of the big battleground states, Trump doesn’t need to do slightly better than his current poll numbers. He needs to do way better than his current poll numbers, even when you give him a generous assessment of hidden support that isn’t showing up in opinion surveys but will in show up polling places.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Oh, this is terrible. Will anyone show up for his rally in four more days? /s
That’s how concern trolling works.
I thought the National Review closed down and all the pathetics that worked there were forced to work at The Hill.
For our sake,we should always assume that we are behind and short of support.
Nice to see Paul Ryan is already campaigning against POTUS.
If the voter fraud were dealt with, there’d be no cause for concern.
It’s that that I’m more worried about.
Polls are frauds.
seriously, just what would you expect to see from a source like this?
Do you also watch CNN and MSNBC?
Hope the Covington kid shuts them down with a libel suit. The way they threw him under the bus was beyond obscene.
In a conversation with a never-Trumper the other day, I mentioned the economy, the low unemployment, the blacks and Hispanics working, the stock market boom, etc. His answer: ‘Yes, but at what cost to the environment and the world?’
These people would rather kill themselves than admit that Trump is doing a great job.
To put Trump’s polling numbers in perspective, Ronald Reagan‘s approval rating in the middle of 1983 according to Gallup was 45%. In 1984, his approval rating was 55%. In other words, when the American people actually sat down and listened to the accomplishments that Reagan had made during the presidential campaign, his approval ratings jumped substantially. Most Americans are on vacation and are not paying attention to politics at this time. When they focus next year on Trump and his accomplishments, his approval rating will jump, and he will be reelected easily.
It was the Weakly Standard that closed down.
Such nonsense. People vote their pocketbook. With the economy booming like it is there is no way in hell he can lose. As much as they hate Donald Trump, they love their money more...so I would say the “shy” Trump voters amount to at least 20 percent of the democrats and 80 percent of the independents. LANDSLIDE. One could say how could a “realist” say that. Well, thinking it over, I may have exaggerated by 2 or 3 percent!
‘Is it conceivable that a majority of Americans would actually vote for Joe Biden over what we have now???’
as of this writing, Biden is 76 years of age; he will be 78 shortly after the 2020 election, assuming, of course, that he hasn’t expired, a possibility for a person of that age...Donald Trump will be 74 at election time; following a second term will be as old as Biden trying for his first term...the age numbers are against Joe; look for a coalition forming around Kamala Harris come convention time pushing her into the nomination...
It was “conceivable” that Hillary would win in a landslide according to the “polls”, was it not? 87 to 93 percent or something, or as Strzok put it, “a hundred million to zero”.
seriously, just what would you expect to see from a source like this?
Do you also watch CNN and MSNBC?
Seriously, have you not watched the past two years of the Trump admin? The GOPe will be doing everything they can to elect Biden or Heels Up Harris. Guaranteed.
I am just not convinced that nonstop propaganda will be ineffective even when placed against lived reality. There are people I know who actually believe Obamacare improved their health. There are people who think their taxes went up even after the tax cuts. It’s bizarre. But I understand that plenty of Russian Pravda readers once thought they lived in a workers’ paradise too.
First of all He’s assuming the 2016 polls were right albeit shy Trump supporters wouldn’t tell the posters they were voting for him and so it was off. Now he’s saying the pre 2020 polls are right just like 2016 and once again the shy Trump voters aren’t being accounted for and it’s bad for Trump even if they were accounted for. These polls are wrong because polls are meant to influence voters not reflect voters sentiment. Have to seen Biden’s crowds? They are as large as a small HS gymnasium. Plus I’m general polls this far out for any presidential election was and has been meaningless
Look at 2016. The “shy Trump voter” swing was a heck of a lot more than 5 points.
But he needs to be more effective in taking credit. The economy is GREAT but it does o FEEL great. Just like giving people a great tax cut but then letting it get minimized by changing the tax tables instead of seeing a big positive refund at end of year.
He lost track of the fat Americans cannot seem to do arithmetic.
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