Posted on 07/04/2019 8:40:33 PM PDT by nwrep
Texas demographics today are strikingly similar to those of California in 1990, before Democrats began their seven to nothing streak of Golden State victories in presidential races. Like California in 1990, the Texas population currently hovers around 29 million and is changing rapidly in light of heavy immigration from Mexico. The second generation children of Mexican immigrants have played a major role in keeping California out of Republican reach. This same transformation is taking root in Texas.
Young Texas voters overwhelmingly turned out for Beto O’Rourke over incumbent Ted Cruz in the Senate race last year. O’Rourke beat Cruz with 18 year olds to 24 year olds by a margin of 68 percent to 32 percent and with 25 year olds to 29 year olds by a margin of 73 percent to 26 percent. O’Rourke also outperformed the traditional edge Democrats already have among Texas Latino voters by a wide margin of 64 percent to 35 percent.
With these second generation Mexican Americans strongly supporting Democrats at the polls, Texas changing to a purple state could not happen at a more inconvenient time for Trump. His margin in the state in 2016 was the smallest for a Republican nominee since the poor showing of Bob Dole in Texas in 1996. Considering the immense and enduring new wave of left leaning voters that O’Rourke attracted, there is a real chance that Texas will be close enough in 2020 that Republicans cannot take it for granted.
Republicans are already walking a tightrope between the 2018 midterm results and changing demographic realities. In many ways, the resources used to keep Texas red next year are balanced by the fates in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Several campaign stops or a late ad buy could mean the difference in the race. Trump could see his electoral chances go to hell, if Democrats spend more time and money in Texas
Cruz’s close call was entirely due to Cruz screwing up by the numbers. Look at all the other statewide office results, look at the Legislatural election results.
Cruz is Ok, he just aint Charismatic.
His record is great.
Then the DNC bombarded money on BETO while Ted lost to Trump who is charismatic.
We’ll see, but the state won’t trend that fast, losing 6 points every 2 years, at most - 3 points. Don’t forget 2018 was a tough election for Republicans, as the Dems were out in force because of Trump, while the more moderate Republicans were wondering whether Trump was a Russian agent. Obviously the second part won’t be an issue in 2020.
They said the same thing last two elections. Maybe one century they will be correct. Every Mexican that owns a gun in Texas will protect those rights they do not have in Mexico.
Well I am in Texas and I will be voting for President Trump.
They must have gotten him confused with Ted Cruz.
Anyone that thinks Julian Castro Or Wendy Davis is the new Tx is mistaken.
Some people started warning them years ago. Their answer,,,,this is Texas. Our Mexicans are different. Sure they are.
Having John Cornyn up for reelection to his senate seat, along with Cruz, Gov. Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and AG Ken Paxton, I tend to feel pretty good about holding Texas next year.
I’m much more worried about losing Arizona, which would leave no room for error in the Rust Belt.
Half the feeaking comments are saying the exact same thing, dude. And I didn’t post the article that started this conversation. Go blame the OP for that.
You want to keep going with your head in the sand and pretend everything is fine, go right on ahead. See if I care. Anyone with eyes open can see the demographics are changing fast in this country. And that change is not to the benefit of conservatives.
All of that has resulted in now claiming Stacey Abrams won it outright, even though she lost by over 50,000.
Beto according to the media had such a good run at Texas against Cruz that they pumped that up into a Presidential run. Definitely working a plan.
This Kristin chick mentions the 2018 midterms.
Those results were skewed because 45 GOP incumbents did not run for re-election....the power of the incumbency is strong and it was gone in those races.
Plus, the Mueller witch hunt and the media’s amplification of that nonsense swayed weak minded voters against the GOP.
And then there was the 90 - 95% negative media reports about the president and their deliberate failure to report the Trump successes of which there were many.
This all takes a toll. Don’t even get me started about RAT early voting shenanigans.
Good article. Trump has a big advantage this election and will win. This definitely applies to subsequent elections.
105 million 2nd Qtr with 100 mil cash. Qtr after Qtr accumulate and still build a ground game with good election software. He is high energy and has the important issues to keep all 2016 states he won in play.
Red Trump states coincide with House seats needed for pickups to flip it back to us. ICE raids deplete illegals pockets and make sure taken off voter rolls.
Rust belt:
MINN (flip Colin Peterson seat and keep both seats gained in 2018, possible flip back of Michelle Bachmann’s old district). GOP +1 gain.
IOWA Aim for all 4 House seats GOP for +3 gain.
ILL flip NW seat back using Davenport IA and Dubuque IA media markets. GOP +1.
MICH flip back both seats lost in 2018. John James competitive on Senate seat Gary Peters 1st term. GOP +2.
PENN flip 1 of 4 seats lost. GOP +1.
South:
SC flip back lost seat in 2018 GOP +1.
GA flip Karen Handel seat back GOP +1.
FL flip both southern seats lost in 2018 GOP +2.
TX flip Dallas SW suburb and Houston NW suburb GOP +2.
Mountain/Plains
KS flip Kansas City seat back GOP +1.
OK flip OK City seat back GOP +1.
NM flip south seat back MAGA events in El Paso GOP +1.
UT flip MIA Love seat back GOP +1.
Lots of money and time for MAGA events, ground game, and election software to GOTV. House and POTUS states coincide. Need to hit ARI, TX, MN, IA, WI, MI, PENN, NC, GA, FL hard. Less so for OH and MT. Hit AL for Senate pickup.
Cruzlims cost Trump votes in 2016. Many of them are proud Nevertrumpers and either skipped the President race or voted for Gary Johnson or McMuffin.
From a former statewide election official—in 2018 Beto was young, fresh and exciting and he was running against the most unlikable, arrogant candidate ever.
Not sure.
Two big problems I see with conservatives. They still send their children to socialist government schools. And many don’t want illegals, but try getting them to insist on no illegals working on their property, and therefore paying a higher price...or ask them if they are paying their legal employees a proper wage. Many seem to feel that Americans should be willing to work for $10/hr for manual labor, else they will hire illegals. Mind you, ask some of the same cheapskates to accept a 50%-75% wage reduction for themselves, and you’ll be met with silence and a blank stare. The first problem feeds the factories which creates socialist voters. The second problem lowers labor participation.
Shocking. Tho it would seem most unlikely
No, not even close to half.
Really not a good idea to double down on the concern trolling.
Thanks for the link. The host was so stupid about Trump and both Coulter and Tate were losing their patience. Coulter said, “I’m going to watch MSNBC and watch them cry all night.” Funny.
I did this way back in the late 80's early 90's. I went to Gun Shows, Boat & RV Shows, Public Picnics, outside Wal*Mart & HEB, KROGER Grocery Stores (Think like a 35 year old Girl Scout selling cookies- HI VOLUME FOOT TRAFFIC !)
Most of The Show Promoter/Business Owners will set You up for FREE, Just ask nicely😀 Be sure to take a folding table and chair with a large print sign saying REGISTER HERE for FREE !!! (use those words) and secure to the table.)
I Signed up Hundreds of Eligible Voters, most of them said "This is really convenient for Me, Thank You ! I would simply listen to what they said and knew they were on the Right Side.
So pass the word.
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