Posted on 07/04/2019 8:40:33 PM PDT by nwrep
Texas demographics today are strikingly similar to those of California in 1990, before Democrats began their seven to nothing streak of Golden State victories in presidential races. Like California in 1990, the Texas population currently hovers around 29 million and is changing rapidly in light of heavy immigration from Mexico. The second generation children of Mexican immigrants have played a major role in keeping California out of Republican reach. This same transformation is taking root in Texas.
Young Texas voters overwhelmingly turned out for Beto O’Rourke over incumbent Ted Cruz in the Senate race last year. O’Rourke beat Cruz with 18 year olds to 24 year olds by a margin of 68 percent to 32 percent and with 25 year olds to 29 year olds by a margin of 73 percent to 26 percent. O’Rourke also outperformed the traditional edge Democrats already have among Texas Latino voters by a wide margin of 64 percent to 35 percent.
With these second generation Mexican Americans strongly supporting Democrats at the polls, Texas changing to a purple state could not happen at a more inconvenient time for Trump. His margin in the state in 2016 was the smallest for a Republican nominee since the poor showing of Bob Dole in Texas in 1996. Considering the immense and enduring new wave of left leaning voters that O’Rourke attracted, there is a real chance that Texas will be close enough in 2020 that Republicans cannot take it for granted.
Republicans are already walking a tightrope between the 2018 midterm results and changing demographic realities. In many ways, the resources used to keep Texas red next year are balanced by the fates in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Several campaign stops or a late ad buy could mean the difference in the race. Trump could see his electoral chances go to hell, if Democrats spend more time and money in Texas
“Why would Texas go purple? People have no reason to vote against their self interest.”
Problem is, many millennials think turning the country into an oversized version of Venezuela IS in their best interest, as long as they’re convinced they’ll get a piece of government largesse for themselves.
100 % agree.
Cruz lost me with his antics at the convention. I was a supporter during the campaign...unsure of Trump.
I held my nose because of the faux Robert F. O’Rourke threat.
Now? Thank you, Lord, for President Trump.
Trump will win Texas by winning Texas. He will win Oregon by winning the national popularity vote, and by a wider margin than Bush did for his re-election in 2004.
We can believe politics (the correct kind) will save this Nation.
That is not true.
Only a return to GOD (the correct one) will.
People assimilate within a century..though they assimilate faster when we have military conscription.
I wish someone could block the 0 phones. Something tells me they have pre-installed apps (Goggle, anyone?) that inform their peeps where/what/when to gather/protest/vote, etc., in support of the DNC.
Loved seeing a large hispanic family, leaving our local HEB, the other day....donning MAGA caps and shirts.
S#!t on our boots means we’re working our land, along side folks of many backgrounds who love our Lone Star spirit.
Sorry that CA wasn’t able to maintain it’s once beautiful - and conservative - state of things.
I warn EVERY Californian I meet, who has moved to TX, to remember to vote for what drew them to TX....low taxes, low cost of living, conservative values, and NOT to vote for what they ran FROM, in Kali. Everyone I’ve had this conversation with, so far, wholeheartedly agrees.
Praying TX stays red.
It’s not impossible. Here’s a few facts about Texas:
It has gotten more Republican in recent history. Trump got 52% and Clinton got 43% in 2016; Romney got 57% and Obama got 41% in 2012; McCain got 53% and Obama got almost 44% in 2008; Bush II got 61% and Kerry got 38% in 2004; Bush II got 59% and Gore got 38% in 2000. However, Dole got 49%, Clinton got 44%, and Perot got 7% in 1996. Bush I got 40%, Clinton got 37%, and Perot got 22% in 1992. Bush I got 56% and Dukakis got 43% in 1988. Reagan won by landslides in 1984 and 1980, but Carter won in 1976 and Humphrey won narrowly in 1968.
As one can see, Democrats have gotten significant votes in Texas and have won it a number of times. The last big scare for Republicans was in the 1990’s when no Republican achieved more than 50% of the vote.
Trump’s victory margin is well within the historic fluctuation for Texas but is narrowing compared to Bush and Romney.
Texas has shown a propensity to be swayed by fellow Texans on the ballot as shown by Perot’s success. Despite Bush I’s ties to Texas, fellow Texan Perot nearly cost him the state. Although Clinton won the national election, he was the first Democrat to win without Texas at the time. True to historic norms, O’Rourke’s surprising strength seems to be due to the fact he is a fellow Texan. Time will tell if he has legs.
Like a lot of other states, Texas’ rapidly growing urban areas are tilting the state further toward the Democrats.
2020 would have to turn into a perfect storm of O’Rourke on the ballot to sway the state I think. But if it does, Houston we have a problem.
They consistently vote 75%-80% Democrat.
Trump will need 60% of the white vote just to be competitive. He got just 57% in 2016.
If the Democrats have high turn out in 2020, Trump and the GOP are in deep trouble.
Win or lose, Trump will be the last Republican president in USA history.
Not in Georgia at least.
I know someone with such a phone, they'd have let me know.
This seems unlikely, at least this go-around ... but if Texas is ever lost, the republic is lost.
Will TX GOP have the balls to go after rat voter fraud in Rio Grand Valley? The region of colonia’s, TX version of Chicago’s Cook county, and big concentrated rat patch of voters.
Also Houston Chronicle has piece on Vietnamese quickie acquaintance marriages for a price. Must be going on with central America and African aliens too.
GOP should crack down, publicise, and deport marriage/immigration fraud with Somalia asleep from MN and Maine and get them off voter rolls. Can pick up two house seats with crackdown for 2020.
Wishful thinking.
The Democrats beat 31 GOP incumbents in 2018, which was more than enough to give them a House majority.
Although the GOP gained Senate seats in 2018, we did not win any Senate elections in states that Hillary Clinton won.
We actually lost one Senate seat in Arizona, which Trump won.
asleep -> asylees
Yes. There are a lot of homeschoolers in Texas. We are one set of parents that do. We’ve homeschooled three since 2007. However, K-12 there are 1.3 million more Latino/Hispanics in public schools than white. Blacks lag behind whites by 800k but add those two together and they surpass whites by over 2 MILLION. You’re not overcoming that voting block with 300k homeschoolers, especially when 20-30% of the white kids (or more) will end up voting libtard.
Beto Schmeto - it was straight ticket Democrat voting in the major cities. Even the governor was rejected by them.
Straight ticket voting in Texas is coming to an end.
Florida is truly not a swing state. Yes, Obama won Florida but that was simply a combination of a Black candidate running against terrible Republican candidates. That brought the Blacks to the polls in numbers never before seen or since. Every statewide office holder is Republican, with the exception of the AG commission and she won by a slim margin. Yes, Desantis and Scott won by narrow margins, but Desantis was a little know Congressman, and alot of the GOP-E Putnam folks stayed home.
Trump will not lose Texas in 2020. However, there is SOON coming a day when Republicans running for national offices won’t be able to take Texas as an automatic win. And within the next two decades, it is very likely the Dems will be able to hang Texas within their auto-win column.
Texas look a LOT like Cali in the late 80s. Houston, Dallas and San Antonio, the big three, are starting their spiral. In twenty years they will be San Fran and LA.
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