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How Roy Moore Could Actually Win Alabama’s Republican Senate Primary
FiveThirtyEight ^ | Live Blog: Women’s World Cup Jun. 20, 2019 | Geoffrey Skelley

Posted on 06/24/2019 10:19:09 AM PDT by Texan4Life

A large primary field may fragment the vote, making it unlikely that a candidate could win a majority and avoid a runoff and making it easier for Moore to advance to a runoff with only the support of his base.

The point is that Moore does have a path — especially a path to a primary runoff if there’s a crowded GOP field. And if he does get there, he would be only one step away from a rematch with Jones.

Moore would still have a decent chance of winning a general election in conservative Alabama, and that is surely a big part of why he’s running again.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Alabama
KEYWORDS: alabama; marajadetroll; primary; republican; senate
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To: AuH2ORepublican
Of course, that’s not going to happen,

Thank you. One of the tactics I use quite a lot is to throw out some erroneous or careless information in the hopes that someone will take the time to correct me, and thereby convince themselves of the point. People would rather believe what they themselves find, then what other people tell them. The trick is to get them to find this information themselves, and the bait is the opportunity to prove someone wrong. :)

but if 25% of Trump voters turned around and voted for Jones, that would permit Jones to win.

And you think that's gonna happen? I think if Moore wins the Nomination, Trump will urge his voters to elect him. A lot of Republicans stayed home in 2017 because Moore was successfully marginalized by lies and backstabbing, but these voters won't stay home in 2020, and they will be faced with either voting for Moore or baby killer Doug Jones. They won't have the option of sitting it out and will have to chose.

With any other GOP nominee, we’re not even having this conversation.

Yeah, I know, but Moore has quite a strong base of support in Alabama, and there is a pretty fair chance it may be sufficient to win the primary for him. This other guy, John Merrill, sounds like he might be able to beat Moore in the primary, but I don't think anyone else can.

If John Merrill wins the primary, then this whole worry goes away, and if he doesn't, I think some of Moore's lost voters will come back to him because they have seen the Kavanaugh debacle, and if I were Moore, I would make that a centerpiece of my campaign effort.

441 posted on 06/26/2019 7:19:43 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
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To: DiogenesLamp

I understand reality, he’d be 50% at BEST to win in November. That’s unacceptable, we need GD Senate seats.


442 posted on 06/26/2019 7:20:38 PM PDT by Impy (I have no virtue to signal.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

DJ, the past is clucking over. Time to stop re-fighting the last race and focus on gaining the mother-loving seat back. Old man Moore should take a hike.


443 posted on 06/26/2019 7:22:09 PM PDT by Impy (I have no virtue to signal.)
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To: Impy

Sort of the point of the discussion, and especially irksome listening to idiots with no clue of the political dynamics of the time and state badmouthing Justice Moore. You have a right to say, “I’d prefer he didn’t run,” but not to make savage personal attacks on his character that are nothing but left-wing talking points. As several of us defending him have said, this is not an endorsement of his 2020 candidacy, just that he doesn’t deserve the badmouthing.


444 posted on 06/26/2019 7:31:02 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

People that stand in the way of us winning races are a class of enemy. I can’t blame anyone for “badmouthing” him. He’s hurting the party and the country by running again and risking this win.

I seem to recall you had no issue with Trump savaging his primary opponents, even Cruz. If Moore needs to be savaged, so be it. Elections are a tough racket. If he doesn’t like it he can drop out and go have high tea with the Queen.


445 posted on 06/26/2019 7:48:15 PM PDT by Impy (I have no virtue to signal.)
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To: Impy

There are opponents and there are enemies. Those are two different things. You & I sit down to play “Monopoly”, we’re not enemies, we’re opponents. If the polling data released today is any reliable indication, Moore is at 13%. Byrne is the one that needs to be defeated.

You’re not recalling right. I actually deplored Trump’s attacks on Cruz (and vice-versa) and hated seeing their surrogates attack each other in 2016 when we needed both to unite against the Butcheress of Benghazi.


446 posted on 06/26/2019 8:04:49 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

If we play monopoly there would no stakes unless you decided to put some action on it.

There are extreme stakes here, so that’s a bad analogy.


447 posted on 06/26/2019 8:28:18 PM PDT by Impy (I have no virtue to signal.)
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To: Impy

No, because there are enemies and there are opponents. Chief Justice Moore is NOT our enemy. Sen. Doug Jones IS.


448 posted on 06/26/2019 8:40:41 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; Impy; LS; BillyBoy

Wow just wow I didn’t think Moore would ever get into politics ever again after the beat down he took.


449 posted on 06/27/2019 1:57:27 AM PDT by StoneWall Brigade (Live Free or Die)
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To: StoneWall Brigade

Doesn’t surprise me at all. Ego, the friggin egos on these politicians man.

What did surprise me but absolutely should not have is that we have freepers who are GLAD the loser is running again.


450 posted on 06/27/2019 4:49:54 PM PDT by Impy (I have no virtue to signal.)
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To: Texan4Life

someone mentioned the Cygnal poll. I’m not ready to buy into the “Coach is gonna win” story but it did have an interesting tidbit that showed how much damage Shelby and other RINO’s did and yet he only lost by 1.7%.
.
A different survey question revealed that only 57.4 percent of Republican respondents voted for Moore in the 2017 special election against Jones. Twenty-two percent voted for Jones, while 7.2 percent chose a write-in candidate. An estimated 9.6 percent of respondents said they chose not to vote.


451 posted on 06/28/2019 7:45:53 AM PDT by CarolinaReaganFan
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To: fieldmarshaldj

No, that has to do with the fact that he is going to lose us a Senate seat-again. As a Senator he doesn’t have the ability to shake anything up. He will simply make votes.


452 posted on 06/28/2019 2:32:33 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: fortheDeclaration

Senators do have the power to shake things up as individual members.


453 posted on 06/28/2019 7:56:46 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Senators can talk, but the Senate is about consensus, not individuals doing anything!


454 posted on 07/03/2019 2:40:39 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: fortheDeclaration

Ain’t no such thing as consensus anymore in the Senate. If they went by that, there’d be not a single Trump judicial appointee confirmed.


455 posted on 07/03/2019 11:16:20 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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