Posted on 06/24/2019 10:19:09 AM PDT by Texan4Life
A large primary field may fragment the vote, making it unlikely that a candidate could win a majority and avoid a runoff and making it easier for Moore to advance to a runoff with only the support of his base.
The point is that Moore does have a path — especially a path to a primary runoff if there’s a crowded GOP field. And if he does get there, he would be only one step away from a rematch with Jones.
Moore would still have a decent chance of winning a general election in conservative Alabama, and that is surely a big part of why he’s running again.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
If you look at the special-election results in suburban counties, it is evident that Jones got quite a few votes from Republicans. You’re correct that Moore’s biggest problem was that many Republicans stayed home, and that most of those voters will come out to vote in a presidential election (particularly with President Trump running against some Leftist extremist), but we cannot assume that every Trump voter, or even 80% of Trump voters, would vote for Judge Moore. Yes, Moore very well could defeat Jones in a rematch, but he also might lose, while just about any other Republican in the state would be guaranteed to win. I supported Judge Moore in the primary and run-off last time, and I won’t make the same mistake again.
who to support = whom to support
It will be interesting to see how this comes out this time. With
President Trump on the primary ballot he may well make a swing
thru Alabama for at least one campaign stop. Especially since
this Senator thing will be up front I’m sure. It will be interesting
to see how he approaches the Senate Primary.
Will Alabama have a presidential primary? Wasn’t the AL GOP talking about switching to a state convention or something?
In any event, yes, President Trump’s endorsement should count for more this time than it did in the special election last year. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the President stayed out of it in the primary before endorsing in the run-off.
However, Alabama is a straight-party vote state, so the option to check one box to vote the whole ticket might be a factor.
-PJ
I find that extremely unlikely. 630,000 Republicans who vote for Trump, would have to jump ship. A realistic number would be 10%, perhaps even 20%, but even with that many loses, a Moore candidacy would still win.
Also, if Moore wins the nomination, Trump will urge his supporters to vote for him, just as he did with Ted Cruz, and it will cause a win.
I supported Judge Moore in the primary and run-off last time, and I won’t make the same mistake again.
I do not think it would be a mistake, but I don't fault you for seeing it that way. Right or Wrong, the media liars beat up Moore very badly, and another candidate wouldn't be carrying this baggage.
Yes, picking someone else is the more secure way to guarantee that seat, and this is what I have been advising, but I would get a great deal of satisfaction out of Moore winning and giving the rebuke to both the media and those Republican backstabbers that would then have to deal with him in the Senate.
People like you are exactly why they ran the smear campaign against Moore. They knew it would work on some.
Nancy Pelosi
Alexandria Ocassional Cortex
Hank Johnson
Maxine Waters
Debbie Wasserman Schultz
Adam Schiff
And other lunatic idiots keep winning elections?
Funny that the voters never seem to pay attention to these idiots, but the media weapon system focuses on anything our people say like a laser beam.
Yeah, the problem is not people saying an occasional off statement, it's the double standard in how they don't cover Democrat insanity on television. 
FEDERAL
• President/Vice-President
• U.S. Senate (1 seat)
• U.S. House of Representatives
(7 seats)
PRIMARY ELECTION — MARCH 3, 2020
February 14 Last day to hand deliver voter registration forms.
February 15 Last day to postmark voter registration forms.
February 17 Voter Registration Deadline. Last day for online voter registration.
February 27 Last day for voter to make application for an absentee ballot.
March 2 Last day for voter to hand-deliver or postmark an absentee ballot.*
https://www.sos.alabama.gov/sites/default/files/voter-pdfs/2020/VoterGuide2020.pdf
Democrats will vote Democrat no matter what.
I keep telling people the problem is liberal control of the media, it is not our candidates. Everyone makes a verbal blunder from time to time, but they only apply this weapon of negative coverage to the political party they don't like.
So I’m wrong, Moore didn’t say he thought “family life was better” for Blacks during slave times? He actually won the election and he’s therefore an incumbent US Senator running for reelection, which he is poised to easily win? Doug Jones, who voted no on Kavanaugh and yes on turning babies into cat food is a figment of my imagination?
I was very skeptical of Moore cause of the narrow State Supreme wins. But you’re a man who’s opinion I put stock in so you convinced me to back him in the runoff. Not that my support mattered but it made me feel dumb for doubting my gut (not that my gut is great barometer of reality)! Your fault! ;-)
First poll
AL USSEN GOP (Cygnal): ex-Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville 29%, Cong Bradley Byrne 21%, ex-Judge Roy Moore 13%, Sec of St John Merrill 12%, St Rep Arnold Mooney 2%
Me too, but just cuz someone is “right” on the issues doesn’t mean he’s a good candidate. Moore shot himself in both feet and both hands. Moreover, this stuff should have been vetted LONG before he got into the primaries.
Yeah, unless Byrne throws ALL his support to Moore, we should be ok.
Sure, straight-party voting would help Judge Moore if he won the nomination (although, it should be noted, Alabamians know how to vote for an R president and a D congressman, and a huge percentage of them did so between 1980 and 1992). And I’m well aware that such factors could permit Moore to win the general. In fact, let’s stipulate that Moore would be a slight favorite to win the general. But, if Moore is the GOP nominee, Jones would have a good chance of winning—call it 40%. If anyone other than Moore is the GOP nominee, Jones’s odds of winning are somewhere between slim and none.
Your math is off. Even if you assume that Trump will get 1,400,000 votes and the RAT nominee will get 700,000 (which seems a bit optimistic, since in 2016 Trump got 1,318,000 and Hillary got 730,000, with 44,000 for Johnson, 9,000 for Stein and 22,000 write-ins), it would not take a drop-off of 50% of Trump voters for Moore to lose. That only would be true if those 50% of Trump voters *left the Senate ballot blank*. If 50% of Trump voters rejected Moore and voted for Jones, then Jones would defeat Moore by a 2:1 margin.
Of course, that’s not going to happen, but if 25% of Trump voters turned around and voted for Jones, that would permit Jones to win. And if the presidential results are 1,360,000 for Trump and 760,000 for the RAT (which is closer to what one would expect with a smaller Libertarian and moonbat-third-party showing), all it would take is 22.5% of Trump voters to switch to Jones in the Senate race. Uphill? Sure. Impossible? Not if Judge Moore is the GOP nominee. With any other GOP nominee, we’re not even having this conversation.
My point is, Trump had two options on whom to back: Moore or Brooks. Strange was a no-go because he was corrupt. That was a terrible endorsement from jump street.
Moore is not a loser because he lost a single race, especially given the level of fraud and deceit employed against him. When you had the corrupt GOP Establishment working to elect Jones over the anti-corruption candidate, it’s on them.
Nothing foolish about the endorsement. Strange was a crook and would’ve lost.
No, he didn't say that. The media claimed he said that because they took great liberties with what he did say. They twisted it into that.
He actually won the election and he’s therefore an incumbent US Senator running for reelection, which he is poised to easily win?
If you aren't able to grasp the point i'm making, i'll just let you be, because I don't see any benefit to talking over your head.
I'll see if I can scrounge up some conversation with people who might actually understand what's going on.
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