Posted on 05/27/2019 9:05:51 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
The economy invariably ranks among the top issues on the minds of voters in presidential elections. At the moment, it appears to offer President Trump a meaningful tailwind.
But how big is that tailwind? Fortunately, economists have worked hard to develop models for predicting election outcomes, and according to one of the best of these, it should be quite large.
One of the first and perhaps still the best of these models was created by Ray Fair, a professor at Yale. He found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes.
How well has Professor Fairs model worked?
In short, while not perfect, the Fair model has done remarkably well. In 2008, it predicted that Barack Obama would receive 53.1 percent of the popular vote; his share actually totaled 53.7 percent. In 2012, when Mr. Obama was running for re-election, its final estimate was a vote share of 51.8 percent, just two-tenths of one percent less than what the incumbent president received. (For Mr. Obama in 2012, the power of incumbency helped offset a still-recovering economy.)
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
IMO, it’s GOT to be another outsider. A non-establishment guy. Someone who has NO political ties and will do whatever it takes to restore America’s Free Constitutional Republic by TAKING DOWN the 80+% unconstitutional portion of the feds, sending hundreds of thousands of officials, bureaucratic heads, and government workers packing without a job. THAT is truly draining the swamp.
D.C. weeps. America REJOICES!
It’s going to take nothing less that this to right our ship of state and restore individual freedom, reinstate the Constitution, which protects that freedom, as the Supreme law of the Land, and reestablish state sovereignty, the heart of America’s decentralized governance.
IMO, we will never MAGA until this is done. THEN America will truly be great again, because it will be free from tyranny again.
The Democrats would have to run a real dud to lose to Pence (and that's possible). For that reason, I'm really hoping somebody else steps up for the GOP, somebody who will carry Trump's agenda forward. Because 8 years of Trump will not be enough.
It's still way too early to be talking about 2024 but I'm thinking we could do a lot worse than Mike Pompeo. I think Pompeo has the chops to be Trump II.
Trump got 53% of the white women vote in 2016. I see no ebbing in Trump's women support. In fact, I see it even increasing.
I’m going out and campaign for President Trump and anyone who will support him...
But the Fox poll showed Biden beating PDJT last week.
Sarcasm.
Here in NH i am seeing women just parrot the usual Trump is a racist, woman hating. Etc ... Etc.
You know the drill.
Even one lady i work with who is a gun owner with a CCW won’t vote for him and will vote Dem no mattet who ever it is.
NH is lost big time.
Who’s the man that will step up to finish the job Trump has started to restore our Free Constitutional Republic?
Sarah Palin. /yeah, I went there.
I’m assuming Trump receives at least 70% of the vote. I’m betting that the number of liberal wackos is less than 30%.
You are discounting the Democrat margin-of-cheating.
The suburbs, where old world city slickers mix with Americans, decide this. Leftist hysterical ranting doesn't sell well there.
It sure sells in my Philly burbs
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