Q4 GDP 2.6%: Better than Expected (2018 GDP, 3.125)

Yahoo News ^ | 28 Feb 19 | Mark Vickery

[xzins]

The long-awaited first read on Q4 GDP has just come out, with results better than expected: +2.6%, whereas analysts had been pivoting right around that 2.0% figure ahead of the release. The historically strong Q3 results were revised upward in its third and final headline: 3.5%.

Even though it’s too early to take the long view of 2018 GDP as a whole, this 2.6% number joins the 2.2%, 4.2% and now 3.5% from the previous quarter to put preliminary GDP at 3.125%, or above 3% for the first time since prior to the Great Recession a decade ago.

That this initial Q4 read is well ahead of analysts’ estimates on the first read is interesting when we see how the numbers break down: the Consumer was actually slightly below estimates of 3% to 2.8%, though the Price Index overall wound up 10 basis points hotter. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — stripping out various near-term volatility, thus creating what we consider a “core” number — reached +1.7%.

[Vaden]

Was it clear? Thank you, I wasn’t sure it was...

[Mouton]

There it is: unexpected.

[enumerated]

“I don’t know what to make of these conflicting reports...fake news?“

I think when they annualize the quarterly growth rates they are introducing a rounding error, overstating the quarterly growth rates slightly.

If you look at their tables showing the $ amounts, the 2.9% for the year appears to be correct.

[litehaus]

A 1913 Dollar is now worth 1 CENT !!

Guardians of the dollar, Congrats..../SARC

[Sam Gamgee]

Are these liberals all on the same mailing lists getting the same talking points? They are all talking down these numbers.

[Sam Gamgee]

Since liberals gave us Keynsianism I have to disagree and say they are very bad at Grade 3 math.

[Sam Gamgee]

Yes, Jefferson was RIGHT to hate and fear the banking establishment.