Posted on 01/05/2019 2:03:16 PM PST by Twotone
In 2006 I wrote an international bestseller about demography. Which is harder to do than you might think. But it was leavened with Dean Martin gags and whatnot. Nevertheless, it made some big-picture points:
Will China be the hyperpower of the 21st century? Answer: No. Its population will get old before it's got rich.
That's a cute line. I've been using it since the dawn of the millennium and I've been interested to watch it catch on. A few years back, I had the pleasure of hearing Henry Kissinger use it: It sounds so much more geopolitically persuasive in his gravelly voice. And the point is a serious one: Japan's demographic crisis began after they'd got rich, which is the better way to arrange things. In China, alas, the statistics are catching up with Steynian doom-mongering:
China's population shrank last year for the first time in 70 years, experts said, warning of a "demographic crisis" that puts pressure on the country's slowing economy...
The number of live births nationwide in 2018 fell by 2.5 million year-on-year, contrary to a predicted increase of 790,000 births, according to analysis by U.S.-based academic Yi Fuxian.
Yi is at the University of Wisconsin at Madison and he's been tracking just how old China's getting:
China's median age was 22 in 1980. By 2018, it was 40. That will rise to 46 in 2030 and 56 in 2050. In the US, the median age was 30 in 1980 and 38 in 2018. In 2030, it will be 40, and 44 in 2050. India, by comparison, had a median age of 20 in 1980 and 28 in 2018.
(Excerpt) Read more at steynonline.com ...
Aside from the atrocious grammar... I don't get it.
It won’t having the dynamic growth of human capital to take advantage of economic strength.
It wont be able to man the machine.
A society grows strong when old men plant their wealth and knowlegde in a free country, and young men and women of strong character have the freedom to pursue their dreams in a free country.
+1.
A tad too long for a tagline.
But you could build a nice article around its theme.
An arresting line:
“it’s easier for the state to demolish the family than to rebuild it.”
A growing population serves a growing economy....without one, eventually you won’t have the other.
Western countries, and Japan, have seen their population growth slow down, long after they got rich. China is not rich yet, but, their population growth is slowing down already...almost assuring they will stay a 3rd World country.
Think of getting old without resources - for medical care, any kind of care. Steyn alluded to the Japanese doing it the right way. They got wealthy & then old. They’re getting care from robots already, but can afford them.
I’m currently taking care of my 93-year old mother & a disabled older sister. I did not have kids. I wonder who will take care of me when I’m no longer able. Smith & Wesson, I think.
Gee Two Tone, hows about social security and Medicare. Not Smith and Wesson. Maybe a part time job? Come on guy, have some faith! Sensible food and study up on how to keep the blood vessels healthy.
Children in China are expected to care for parents and grandparents. No one wants to get married when they will have to care for 4 parents and 8 grandparents.
The Chinese Communist Party murdered somewhere around a hundred million of their own people to maintain power.
What if they decide that it’s necessary to kill most of the non working elderly ?
Go to a casino sometime (just about anywhere). A lot of the aging Chinese population seems to have come to the US.
:-)
I’m trying to remain positive & I do exercise three times a week at a gym, including a 1 hour ‘silver sneakers-type’ class. But I’m 62 now. Will I still be doing that in my 90’s? Family history says I’ll probably live that long.
I don’t look forward to the time when I can’t do for myself & will have to rely on those who may only see me as a paycheck. I’ve heard horror stories. Smith & Wesson is simply a last resort.
Please banish that thought, friend. Where there's a will, there's a way.
Many people have never heard of him, but David DuByne is one of the most important voices of this decade, and is well worth listening to.
His mission is to educate and inform others about the impending Grand Solar Minimum, which will essentially be a mini ice age. He does so by presenting the viewers with verifiable, empirical, scientific facts and observations, that are irrefutable.
This thing is knocking at our door, folks. Our sun has entered a quiet phase that repeats like clockwork, in a cyclic, regular pattern. It's going to get cold - very cold - and soon.
Go to YouTube and look up the channel, Adapt 2030 for more info.
“They’re getting care from robots already,...”
Indeed! And robots will factor big everywhere else. While Stein mentions robotic maids, nurses, etc.; I don’t think he gave enough weight to the question of robotics. Demographics should include silicon-based “lifeforms” (AKA robots).
Robots, combined with artificial intelligence, will soon be doing most of the work humans are doing now. The transportation sector will be among the first hit — with wheeled robots poised to wipe out most jobs for professional drivers.
Japan has had (effectively) zero in-migration, while its population declines. I’ve commented on this here, several times. While “western” nations have been importing millions of low-skill immigrants to do menial work; Japan has had a strategy of using more and more robots.
Industrial robots are now old hat. Androids (robots resembling humans) will be caring for the elderly, as you and Stein point out. They’ll be doing a lot of other tasks too. We already have robotic vacuum cleaners, and mops — why import maids? Robots will be doing most menial farm labour soon — thus demolishing any rationale for allowing illegal immigration of low-skill labourers. Then, there’s the fast-food industry — quickly automating everywhere minimum wages were given huge boosts.
There’s another factor Stein didn’t mention (at least in this article — I haven’t read the book). Japan has “colonized” many countries (including the USA and Canada), with branch plants. They simply don’t need a large population at home to make things — they will continue to use foreign populations for that (for whatever jobs are left after the robots invade). Japan will be recognizably Japanese in 50 years — we can’t say the same about Europe or N. America.
The big challenges won’t be looking after the elderly, nor maintaining productive capacity. The main challenges are going to be associated with income and wealth redistribution. That’s going to be a challenge for conservative governments — how to redistribute, without becoming socialists.
Which includes teaching young children, programmed by the PC government, though caretaker teachers will be needed for discipline. But as i recall reading, sadly much of the tech. progress re. computers was spurred by the porn industry, and likely will be much the case with robots, which does not justify the use.
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