Menendez opens lead over Hugin in new poll right before Election Day

Newark Star-Ledger ^ | November 5, 2018 | Jonathan D. Salant

[GuavaCheesePuff]

Democratic U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez led Republican rival Bob Hugin by 15 percentage points among likely voters in a poll released a day before New Jersey voters go to the polls.

Menendez was ahead of Hugin, a former Celgene Corp. executive, 55 percent to 40 percent in a Quinnipiac University poll released Monday.

It was the second straight survey to give him a double-digit lead after several polls showed a tight race. A Stockton University poll released Friday had Menendez ahead, 51 percent to 39 percent. Menendez never trailed in any survey.

[b4its2late]

If people in NJ are as dumb as they are in NY, Menendez will win again.

[DivineMomentsOfTruth]

The only reason Hugin is getting my vote is because I want President Trump to be able to continue MAGA!

[DivineMomentsOfTruth]

NJ has too many dead people voting.. and they always vote Democrat.

[b4its2late]

Ahhh, good point.

[Truthoverpower]

Only southern NJ cape May county generally has any Republicans
That being said Menendez is a real tool
Plenty of evidence he’s a perv that likes little girls too

[pepsi_junkie]

When Torricelli went down to corruption charges a couple weeks before the election, the NJ Supreme Court overturned election law which prohibited candidates from being changed on the ballot within 30 days of the election so the dems could swap in a new guy. They took an old retired US Senator, Frank Lautenburg, a guy who was rumored to have dementia, and put him on the ballot at the last second. With no campaigning and buzz that he was senile, he still won walking away.

This is NJ. I give Hugin 5% chance to win against the guy who was charged with all sorts of corruption (and let's face it, the evidence was iron clad) and only managed to walk free due to a hung jury in his own backyard. Everyone who pays any attention knows the guy is dirty. But he'll win anyway.

I hate this state.

[pepsi_junkie]

By the way, this is what Menendez's campaign ads ammount to. No accomplishments, just this:

Hugin ran a big pharma company, a company that profited off of cancer patients' suffering by selling them drugs for profit. Don't vote for big pharma"

[fortheDeclaration]

Amazing how corrupt NJ is.

[nfldgirl]

So sickening that anyone would vote for this despicable human being....Melendez that is.

[nfldgirl]

Melendez = Menendez.

[Revolutionary]

Fake poll. Hugin will win by 2-3%.

[folkquest]

“October 19, 2016 - Clinton Tops Trump By 7 Points, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds...”

I still don’t trust them!

[monkeyshine]

I couldn’t find a link to the methodology. There are so many ways to tweak results though nothing would surprise me. I’ve seen polls that took 20,000 calls to get 500 results; and one poll showing Dems leading on a generic ballot that had 10% more woman respondents than men.

Beyond those more obvious deficiencies the assumptions they use are often faulty. In 2016 I saw polls that seemed to get the D, R, and I proportions correctly but then went on to assume that Is would break about 10% more for D than R when the reality is that Is tend to break about the same as party registration - 4% or so towards D.

People don’t realize that these pollsters literally strike or censor responses in order to get ratios that they think will resemble the demographic ratios that come out to vote. So if they got 600 responses but turns out that they got too many 18-34 year olds in the results they just drop some of the results from the tally until they get a mix that fits their turnout model. Turnout would be one major factor that would make their models radically incorrect and thus their results.

One of the most accurate polls in 2016 was the USC/LA Times poll that called the same 2000 people, about 500 every week, for months. And by the closing weeks of the race showed Trump only a couple of points behind HRC when the major names had her at double-digit leads. It was unique in its methodology but nobody is sure if such a method would prove to be more accurate. Sadly they aren’t running (or, not publishing) that same poll for the mid-terms. I would’ve liked to see it used as a ‘generic ballot’ type poll.

[DivineMomentsOfTruth]

Monmouth and Ocean counties are red.. Thank Goodness.

All of a sudden I’m hearing on NY radio news that creepy Menendez is up 15 points? I don’t believe it. Fake news!

[DivineMomentsOfTruth]

A poll meant to discourage Republican voters from showing up to vote.

Thought the same thing. It goes from tight to big lead the day before.. BS!

[maxwellsmart_agent]

Hugin could have won if he was not in favor of killing babies. Maybe he will learn from this. Maybe not.

[ptsal]

As a parent and grandparent.... Menendez is a total creep and should be in prison, IMHO.