If You’re Sure You Know What’s Going to Happen on Tuesday, You’re Wrong

New York Times ^ | 11/04/2018 | Christopher Buskirk

[MaxistheBest]

With Election Day at hand, we know one thing for sure: Voter turnout is huge. In fact, it looks like we will have the highest midterm turnout since 1966. The rationale for a gigantic blue wave that would represent a repudiation of the 2016 election has been that millions of Americans are so turned off by President Trump and his agenda that they will come out en masse and hand Congress to Democrats with large majorities, proving what has been an article of faith among Trump-haters, that his election was an anomaly and that American politics would quickly revert to the mean.

But that’s not going to happen — because it relies on a false premise. Republicans don’t want to go back to the Bush-McCain-Romney era any more than Democrats want to go back to Clintonism. And since the Kavanaugh hearings, Republicans are just as energized and united as Democrats. That means everything is up for grabs. This election, in other words, is part of a process in which the electorate is working toward a new political dispensation that will replace the one that prevailed from the end of World War II until sometime during the Obama administration.

Savvy Democrats who have worked elections — and not just keyboards — realized early-on that they over-promised and began to lower expectations for a wave election.

[MaxistheBest]

The wholesale rejection of Mr. Trump that has been confidently predicted since the Women’s March that took place the day after his inauguration is not in the cards. It never was. His opponents should remember that whatever they think of the man or his policies, he won more votes than any Republican ever, remains very popular with his own party and is presiding over an economic boom. We have robust economic growth, the lowest unemployment rate since 1969 and — finally — somewhat higher wages. What’s more, the country is at peace, having largely wound down its ill-advised wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East while still pursuing a policy that has degraded Isis as a threat. A lot of voters who are not deeply ideological will look at that, or simply experience it in their own lives, and wonder why they should make a change. Things are going well.

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The former Obama aides who co-host Pod Save America have stood out as voices of political maturity. They predicted that Democrats’ chances of taking over the House are no better than 50-50 and even worried that Democrats could “lose everything.”

[urbanpovertylawcenter]

Soros collusion?

Voter fraud?

[ExTexasRedhead]

The Trump Administration is laying in wait for the voter fraud and several have already been charged.

The New York Slime can kiss my rear end. Where are the HUGE crowds for any Marxist RAT? I’ve watched all the Trump rallies and they’re huge and enthusiastic just like in 2016.

CAPE GIRARDEAU, MISSOURI, RALLY TOMORROW

Missourians are going to get the treat of a life time!

Not only will they have the man himself, President Trump, they will also receive two special guest appearances from Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity.

Limbaugh was born in Cape Girardeau, Missouri.

The rally in Missouri is set for Monday, 5th at 10pm est.

[Lurker]

Wednesday morning is going to be awesome.

L

[rightwingcrazy]

This article contradicted itself in the very first sentence.

[MNJohnnie]

from the end of World War II until sometime during the Obama administration

False. For all the smoke blown about Obama his administration was far closer to both Bush's an Clinton then Trump. The end of the post WW2 poltical model is Trump

[Steely Tom]

The rationale for a gigantic blue wave that would represent a repudiation of the 2016 election has been that millions of Americans are so turned off by President Trump and his agenda that they will come out en masse and hand Congress to Democrats with large majorities

That's not a "rationale," it's projection, and wishful thinking.

[alloysteel]

So who is sure of anything? Work as if you expect the best of outcomes, anticipate that it could blow up at any moment, and firmly fix in your mind that nothing, NOTHING is certain until the moment it happens. Even then, the results may be snatched back in a bad parody of “instant replay”.

Thee are all kinds of prognostications out there that presume to foretell the future, and not one of then has better than even a 50% chance of success. Keep in mind that chaos is the default position for the Universe, and only occasionally does enough organized dedicated intent rise to the level of even momentarily dispelling this state of chaos.

[SaxxonWoods]

Shocked to see this in the NYT. Libs must be freaking out.

[USNBandit]

The third sentence is horrendous. A poorly organized, scatter-brained, run on.

[heterosupremacist]

I am sure of two things that will happen Tuesday.

(1.) Trump Republicans whoop ass.

(2.) Demz will scream, “Russian/Saudi/Korean collusion, voter suppression, electoral fraud, invalid election, racism/sexism/HomoTransism, etc.

[Saveourcountry]

I read the whole thing. The NYT has seen the handwriting on the wall. They know it is over. I love reading things like this! Thank you!

[Saveourcountry]

“Shocked to see this in the NYT. Libs must be freaking out.”
_________

Me too! I love it!

[MuttTheHoople]

Flagburning babykillers crawfishing.

[Revolutionary]

Republicans are far more enthusiastic than the dems.
The level of voter fraud by the dems is the only thing in question. DHS is working some of this.

[oldasrocks]

A lot depends on how many dead people vote. Where was that place where the hilterbeast got 2,500 votes with 100 Registered voters?

[CharlesMartelsGhost]

Forget Congress. State legislatures are where the real action happens. Roads. Schools. Sewers. And, of course, legislative district boundaries. I would add:(As in the 2020 redistricting of the House in DC. which will effect the US for a decade 2020-2030.)

From the article:

Dr. Carl E. Klarner, an election analyst, told the Washington Post that New Hampshire, Maine and Connecticut Democrats will likely be able to flip their state Senates from Republican to Democratic majorities. He also said Arizona Democrats might flip their state House if they can persuade people to vote Tuesday the way they did in 2016 in several districts that went for Hillary Clinton.

Klarner also said the Michigan GOP should lose its supermajority hold over that state’s Senate, if only because so many Republican lawmakers can’t run again because of term limits.

Link: https://pjmedia.com/election/nevermind-congress-do-democrats-have-enough-to-turn-red-legislatures-blue/

[Jim Noble]

Republicans are far more enthusiastic than the dems

But the Dems have huge numerical majorities, so far held in check by the anti-democratic features of the Constitution.

The problem is that the people support Trump, not the Republicans. The Republicans only chance was to hug Trump so hard that they became invisible - which is the opposite of what they did.

Now, they are going to pay the price.

[pke]

Since the opposite of everything the NYT says is true I find this headline very comforting.

[ak267]

Tweeting bird tells me that AZ-01 might flip to GOP

@WendyRogersAZ