CA25 Two straight NYTimes polls has Knight ahead 2-4 points. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
CA39 Mixed polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
CA45 Mixed polling, Dem seems slightly ahead. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
CA48 True tossup. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
FL15 Its close, but Spano ahead it most polls (predicting REPUBLICAN)
FL26 Mixed polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
FL27 - DEM ahead in latest polling. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
GA6 Handel ahead in the polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
IA3 Mixed polling, but one poll had Republican up by 16. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
IL6 Mixed polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
KS2 Mixed polling. Cook PVI is R+10 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
KY6 Lots of polling, mixed results. Cook PVI is R+9 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
ME2 Mixed polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
MI8 Most polling has Republican slightly ahead (predicting REPUBLICAN)
MI11 Democratic ahead in every poll. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
MN1 Limited polling, but a partisan poll has Republican ahead by 14 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
MN7 I dont even understand why this is a Tossup. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
MTAL Republican ahead in most polling. (predicting REPUBILCAN)
NC9 Two straight NYTimes polls has Harris ahead. (predicting REPUBILCAN)
NJ3 Mixed polling but MacArthur is looking better. (predicting REPUBILCAN)
NM2 Republican ahead in most polling (predicting REPUBLICAN)
NV3 A little birdy told me Tarkanian pulls an upset. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
NV4 - A little birdy is whispering, but not buying it yet. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
NY19 Mixed polling. Tossup. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
NY22 Dem ahead in polling (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
PA1 Republican ahead in polling (predicting REPUBLICAN)
PA16 Republican ahead in most polling (predicting REPUBLICAN)
TX7 Not worried about it (predicting REPUBLICAN)
TX32 Not worried about it (predicting REPUBLICAN)
UT4 Republican ahead in 9 straight polls, then behind in 4 straight polls. 3 of the 4 were within 1 point. I think Love still wins (predicting REPUBLICAN)
VA5 Tight polls (predicting REPUBLICAN)
VA7 Republican up 7 in latest poll (predicting REPUBLICAN)
WA8 Lastest poll has Republican up by 10 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
2 changes from predictions made a couple of weeks ago.
FL27 now predicting Democratic
NJ3 now predicting Republican
My prediction for next House: Democrats 211 and Republicans 224. An improvement of one seat for Republicans from last prediction.
NH1 tied. If Edwards wins would be a GOP pick-up of the Shea-Porter democratic seat.
I sure HOPE Knight wins in CA-25! The Dem running is an airhead, another proudly bisexual candidate, who has had H-wood Celebs (B and C list only) coming to the sleepy little Santa Clarita Valley to stump for her. But she has been spending MILLIONS......now where could that possibly be coming from???
I hope you are right. Thanks for the analysis.
Nice job.
Election night at CNN ought to be a hoot!
It’s close. Let’s tell family and friends to vote like our lives depend on it, because they do!
please add me to your ping list if you have on...
CA45 Republican up mail returns 45-31
If the Democrats dont take control of Congress, after all of the spin, lies, ginned up media hatred, and even historical precedent, you will see an explosion of hate and violence from the left, the likes of which this country has never seen before. They are already primed for it.
I hope folks are locked, loaded and ready for it.
Where did you get the data on VA-7? I am in Brat’s district, I have not seen the latest poll you cite showing him up by 7.
I researched every race today and I came up with R=225, D=210. We were very close.
Pray for victory next Tuesday !
VA05 should be a given for Denver. I can't see the Waco Dem winning that.
What about VA10? I believe Comstock is still behind in NoVA.
I’m surprised you only have one New Jersey district in your list. Do you have the GOP losing both NJ-7 and NJ-11?
PA-7? That was that RINO seat. Charlie dent. Dont see that seat on your list.
Repubs will pick up 6-12 seats in the House thanks to the Donald.
I have noticed that the professional prognosticators seem to have sudden amnesia about the Cook PVI. Where a race is called a toss up this late in the campaign, the best indicator for which way it is going to go on Tuesday has to be the PVI. It accurately describes the political makeup of a district and we have seen plenty of evidence that we are not experiencing a wave election or a major shift in sentiment.
Those in Washington are suffering from some mass hysteria. They have been telling themselves for two years that this year would set the clock back and deliver a Blue Wave and get the universe reset to a normal state. I don’t see any of that sort of thing and expect that the big majority of toss ups will go in one direction - Republican.
Not sure what poll you are looking at. The Republican Tenney should win NY CD 22.