Skip to comments.House of Representative, Election Prediction, Update 11/01/2018
Posted on 11/01/2018 4:44:24 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
RealClearPolitics has 204 "safe" seats for the Democrats and 197 "safe" seats for the Republicans. They have 34 seats in the tossup category.
Based on a reasonable analysis, I predict Democrats win 7 and Republicans win 27.
The totals for the next Congress being, Democrats 211 and Republicans 224. Republicans lose a total of 17 seats from 2016 high.
CA25 Two straight NYTimes polls has Knight ahead 2-4 points. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
CA39 Mixed polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
CA45 Mixed polling, Dem seems slightly ahead. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
CA48 True tossup. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
FL15 Its close, but Spano ahead it most polls (predicting REPUBLICAN)
FL26 Mixed polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
FL27 - DEM ahead in latest polling. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
GA6 Handel ahead in the polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
IA3 Mixed polling, but one poll had Republican up by 16. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
IL6 Mixed polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
KS2 Mixed polling. Cook PVI is R+10 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
KY6 Lots of polling, mixed results. Cook PVI is R+9 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
ME2 Mixed polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
MI8 Most polling has Republican slightly ahead (predicting REPUBLICAN)
MI11 Democratic ahead in every poll. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
MN1 Limited polling, but a partisan poll has Republican ahead by 14 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
MN7 I dont even understand why this is a Tossup. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
MTAL Republican ahead in most polling. (predicting REPUBILCAN)
NC9 Two straight NYTimes polls has Harris ahead. (predicting REPUBILCAN)
NJ3 Mixed polling but MacArthur is looking better. (predicting REPUBILCAN)
NM2 Republican ahead in most polling (predicting REPUBLICAN)
NV3 A little birdy told me Tarkanian pulls an upset. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
NV4 - A little birdy is whispering, but not buying it yet. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
NY19 Mixed polling. Tossup. (predicting REPUBLICAN)
NY22 Dem ahead in polling (predicting DEMOCRATIC)
PA1 Republican ahead in polling (predicting REPUBLICAN)
PA16 Republican ahead in most polling (predicting REPUBLICAN)
TX7 Not worried about it (predicting REPUBLICAN)
TX32 Not worried about it (predicting REPUBLICAN)
UT4 Republican ahead in 9 straight polls, then behind in 4 straight polls. 3 of the 4 were within 1 point. I think Love still wins (predicting REPUBLICAN)
VA5 Tight polls (predicting REPUBLICAN)
VA7 Republican up 7 in latest poll (predicting REPUBLICAN)
WA8 Lastest poll has Republican up by 10 (predicting REPUBLICAN)
2 changes from predictions made a couple of weeks ago.
FL27 now predicting Democratic
NJ3 now predicting Republican
My prediction for next House: Democrats 211 and Republicans 224. An improvement of one seat for Republicans from last prediction.
RCP changed around their ratings somewhat from a couple of weeks ago, 32 tossup to 34 tossup, etc.
Updated analysis for their latest ratings.
I’ll post a post-election followup next week on the right/wrong calls.
Thank you for your good efforts. You just eased my mind, too.
NH1 tied. If Edwards wins would be a GOP pick-up of the Shea-Porter democratic seat.
My latest House predictions.
Now show 224-211. An improvement of 1 seat.
There is going to be much mischief!
I still say those bastard establishment globalist RINOS who retired did it to spite President Trump and sabotage MAGA!!
NV3 is a flip. DEMs lose seat.
I sure HOPE Knight wins in CA-25! The Dem running is an airhead, another proudly bisexual candidate, who has had H-wood Celebs (B and C list only) coming to the sleepy little Santa Clarita Valley to stump for her. But she has been spending MILLIONS......now where could that possibly be coming from???
I hope you are right. Thanks for the analysis.
NM House Dist. 2 should go R.
Thanks for all the hard work you guys do for the rest of us. We are very grateful.
Election night at CNN ought to be a hoot!
I hope you are right.
Salazar was ahead in some polls. But 3 straight polls with Shalala leading.
Election night at CNN ought to be a hoot!
I hope it makes 2016 look like a happy party.
It’s close. Let’s tell family and friends to vote like our lives depend on it, because they do!
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