House of Representative, Election Prediction, Update 11/01/2018

11/01/2018 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

RealClearPolitics has 204 "safe" seats for the Democrats and 197 "safe" seats for the Republicans. They have 34 seats in the tossup category.

Based on a reasonable analysis, I predict Democrats win 7 and Republicans win 27.

The totals for the next Congress being, Democrats 211 and Republicans 224. Republicans lose a total of 17 seats from 2016 high.

[SpeedyInTexas]

CA10 – Race has tightened. Limited polling. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)

CA25 – Two straight NYTimes polls has Knight ahead 2-4 points. (predicting REPUBLICAN)

CA39 – Mixed polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)

CA45 – Mixed polling, Dem seems slightly ahead. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)

CA48 – True tossup. (predicting REPUBLICAN)

FL15 – Its close, but Spano ahead it most polls (predicting REPUBLICAN)

FL26 – Mixed polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)

FL27 - DEM ahead in latest polling. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)

GA6 – Handel ahead in the polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)

IA3 – Mixed polling, but one poll had Republican up by 16. (predicting REPUBLICAN)

IL6 – Mixed polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)

KS2 – Mixed polling. Cook PVI is R+10 (predicting REPUBLICAN)

KY6 – Lots of polling, mixed results. Cook PVI is R+9 (predicting REPUBLICAN)

ME2 – Mixed polling. (predicting REPUBLICAN)

MI8 – Most polling has Republican slightly ahead (predicting REPUBLICAN)

MI11 – Democratic ahead in every poll. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)

MN1 – Limited polling, but a partisan poll has Republican ahead by 14 (predicting REPUBLICAN)

MN7 – I don’t even understand why this is a Tossup. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)

MTAL – Republican ahead in most polling. (predicting REPUBILCAN)

NC9 – Two straight NYTimes polls has Harris ahead. (predicting REPUBILCAN)

NJ3 – Mixed polling but MacArthur is looking better. (predicting REPUBILCAN)

NM2 – Republican ahead in most polling (predicting REPUBLICAN)

NV3 – A little birdy told me Tarkanian pulls an upset. (predicting REPUBLICAN)

NV4 - A little birdy is whispering, but not buying it yet. (predicting DEMOCRATIC)

NY19 – Mixed polling. Tossup. (predicting REPUBLICAN)

NY22 – Dem ahead in polling (predicting DEMOCRATIC)

PA1 – Republican ahead in polling (predicting REPUBLICAN)

PA16 – Republican ahead in most polling (predicting REPUBLICAN)

TX7 – Not worried about it (predicting REPUBLICAN)

TX32 – Not worried about it (predicting REPUBLICAN)

UT4 – Republican ahead in 9 straight polls, then behind in 4 straight polls. 3 of the 4 were within 1 point. I think Love still wins (predicting REPUBLICAN)

VA5 – Tight polls (predicting REPUBLICAN)

VA7 – Republican up 7 in latest poll (predicting REPUBLICAN)

WA8 – Lastest poll has Republican up by 10 (predicting REPUBLICAN)

[SpeedyInTexas]

2 changes from predictions made a couple of weeks ago.

FL27 now predicting Democratic

NJ3 now predicting Republican

My prediction for next House: Democrats 211 and Republicans 224. An improvement of one seat for Republicans from last prediction.

[SpeedyInTexas]

RCP changed around their ratings somewhat from a couple of weeks ago, 32 tossup to 34 tossup, etc.

Updated analysis for their latest ratings.

I’ll post a post-election followup next week on the right/wrong calls.

[laplata]

Thank you for your good efforts. You just eased my mind, too.

[LongWayHome]

NH1 tied. If Edwards wins would be a GOP pick-up of the Shea-Porter democratic seat.

[SpeedyInTexas]

My latest House predictions.

Now show 224-211. An improvement of 1 seat.

[editor-surveyor]

.
The GOP will likely end up with about 242 seats when the dust clears, but it may take a month to clear the dust.

There is going to be much mischief!

[RoseofTexas]

I still say those bastard establishment globalist RINOS who retired did it to spite President Trump and sabotage MAGA!!

[SpeedyInTexas]

NV3 is a flip. DEMs lose seat.

[originalbuckeye]

I sure HOPE Knight wins in CA-25! The Dem running is an airhead, another proudly bisexual candidate, who has had H-wood Celebs (B and C list only) coming to the sleepy little Santa Clarita Valley to stump for her. But she has been spending MILLIONS......now where could that possibly be coming from???

[thirdgradeteacher]

I hope you are right. Thanks for the analysis.

[laplata]

NM House Dist. 2 should go R.

[Windflier]

Thanks for all the hard work you guys do for the rest of us. We are very grateful.

[ncalburt]

Fl 27 - The Cuban woman will beat that old tired Donna .
She is a well known Cuban TV personality .
The last poll I saw she pulled ahead .

[11th_VA]

Gawd I hope you are right, but I can already hear CNN: “ Donald Trump has brainwashed Red America, that’s the only explanation ...”

[JPJones]

Nice job.

Election night at CNN ought to be a hoot!

[SpeedyInTexas]

I hope you are right.

Salazar was ahead in some polls. But 3 straight polls with Shalala leading.

[laplata]

Election night at CNN ought to be a hoot!

><

I hope it makes 2016 look like a happy party.

[familyop]

It’s close. Let’s tell family and friends to vote like our lives depend on it, because they do!

[ncalburt]

The Cubans vote is solid there from their own .
Donna is not from there and left her job in shambles .
the three latest polls just the local left wing tv station nonsense polls?