House of Representative, Election Prediction, Update 11/01/2018

11/01/2018 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

KY6?

[Baldwin77]

I had an error in my calculations. I have R=223, D-212.

[mrsmith]

Not an early one!
Would be great if it was.
I just want one that’s even been polled.

I’ll look more, thought you might have one off the top of your head. Thanks anyway.

[Baldwin77]

I have MN 2,7,8 flipping to R

[Baldwin77]

It’s tied but I think the R’s will win it. (KY6)

[Alberta's Child]

Ok — thanks!

[editor-surveyor]

.
Thank God!

Was getting tired of “Stuck on Stupid.”

[chrisinoc]

“CA45 Republican up mail returns 45-31”

Can’t imagine a Dem representing south Orange County. Biggest worry are the idiots at UCI tipping the scale in favor of the Dems.

[mrsmith]

My mistake, it IS an early reporting district.
So there I am!

(Best I can tell none of the other races are even close.)

Good fortune to us all on Tuesday!

[centurion316]

I have noticed that the professional prognosticators seem to have sudden amnesia about the Cook PVI. Where a race is called a toss up this late in the campaign, the best indicator for which way it is going to go on Tuesday has to be the PVI. It accurately describes the political makeup of a district and we have seen plenty of evidence that we are not experiencing a wave election or a major shift in sentiment.

Those in Washington are suffering from some mass hysteria. They have been telling themselves for two years that this year would set the clock back and deliver a Blue Wave and get the universe reset to a normal state. I don’t see any of that sort of thing and expect that the big majority of toss ups will go in one direction - Republican.

[central_va]

I still say those bastard establishment globalist RINOS who retired did it to spite President Trump and sabotage MAGA!!

Probably, but I think it is going to backfire on them.

[Intolerant in NJ]

POTUS has emboldened the party from what is normally milquetoast messaging...same thing happening in NJ2 - Grossman vs. Van Drew - suddenly a bunch of hard hitting TV ads with scenes of rioting mobs, saying that electing Van Drew will only let the likes of Pelosi ruin what Trump's accomplished so far, and quoting her as saying that if what she wants to do hurts those who don't agree with her, "so be it" - Van Drew is such a well known name in the district and Grossman is starting from so far back that it's not likely he'll win, but at least in the last few weeks he's making a run for it.....

[napscoordinator]

Thank you. If we can’t keep it, I am glad it’s part of the democrats numbers so we know where we stand. I think we win by 10 seats or more.

[FreeReign]

NY22 – Dem ahead in polling (predicting DEMOCRATIC)

Not sure what poll you are looking at. The Republican Tenney should win NY CD 22.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/new-york/22/

The D partisan polls show D winning.
The R partisan polls show R winning.

The non partisan polls show D winning. But very close race.

I hope you are right on Tenney though.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Tenney up 6 in a poll in progress.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ny22-3.html

About 40% completed.

[FreeReign]

Keep in mind that Trump won the district by 16 points.

Hopefully the voters consider Tenney trumpy enough.