Posted on 10/31/2018 4:21:47 AM PDT by 11th_VA
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
First Poll Democrat Leads: Oct 11-14
Momentum swing ? MOE ? Interesting
As we get closer to election day, the polls start to report actual numbers than adjusted numbers. They are trying to claim some modicum of credibility.
While their hit rate improved to 1.7% vs 1.4% the first round of polling, it seems like a complete waste of time.....other than it is a way to manufacture news.
They can’t even report the results of a poll without interjecting their bias.
My take on the article was that the Democrat was ahead.
That’s very odd, that they made thousands of calls but a fraction answered the poll. It would be interested to know if the people answering had a demonstrable bias one way or the other. Are, for example, committed Democrats more likely to answer a poll than Republicans? I know several Republicans who will not speak to pollsters.
Almost certainly, those answering will not reflect the overall electorate. I suspect that polling no longer works because of dramatic cultural and technological shifts in our society.
More amazing to me is that less than 2% of the people called answered the phone. Polling is an arcane relic of years gone by. Go vote & bring a friend.
Manufacture news and try to push the poll result to one they would like. It's what they do.
What a farce.
“Can a Republican” (ewwww.... those NASTY Republicans!) “survive” (we HOPE not!) “a national wave of rebellion in the suburbs?” (Wet dream! Wet dream!)
Well, look at THIS proof (uh, huh) ... “We make 29,261 calls and 502 people spoke to us” - that means 28,759 people heard it was a New York Times poll, laughed at you and hung up. 502 Democrats said “Yeah, baby! Resist!” and answered your questions, and even THEN your favored candidate barely limped into the lead.
Can’t wait until next week, and I hope all of you people go permanently, batshit crazy with grief.
People are missing the point
The Dem was ahead at the beginning of Oct, they are behind now. This poll reflect the notion that there is a red tide rising
You’re right. I assumed the second image was the more recent one.
I still think it’s a nonsense poll though, when 90-something percent of the people they contact hang up on them.
Yes, sorry, polling is an absurd “science” I agree.
Look at the ratio of people called to people answer. This is a JOKE!
response rate blamed on caller id? Seems so very low. Can we compare to details before caller id?
The 1.7% who actually answered the poll are the same as the 98.3% who didn’t answer? Seriously?
The ‘suburbs’ have gained the most in the past two years. Stocks up. Jobs plentiful. Wages rising. Businesses growing. Financial growth is abundant for people 401ks, management bonueses and small business growth. Why would they reject the congress that helped create those results? Is the message not getting to them?
Agree! That response rate is abysmal. You can’t put any stock into this “poll.”
A germane factoid:
Although nearly all U.S. adults now have access to a telephone, survey researchers typically achieve relatively low response rates in telephone surveys of the U.S. public. For example, the Gallup Poll Social Series (GPSS) surveys achieved a 7% response rate, on average, in 2017, compared with 28% in 1997.Jan 11, 2018
Still Listening: The State of Telephone Surveys - Gallup News
https://news.gallup.com/opinion/methodology/.../listening-state-telephone-surveys.aspx
I think telephone polling is on life support, if not yet dead.
It's amazing that so many don't get the point of the visual results of the two polls. Dem ahead in earlier poll. GOP ahead in later poll. Momentum shifting to the GOP.
“...they made thousands of calls but a fraction answered the poll.”
From what I’ve been reading, that’s the case everywhere; in one instance, they made over 60,000 calls to get 1,000 answers. People aren’t talking to pollsters and I can’t imagine why... /s
Too many GOP women are voting with their genitalia instead of their brains. Trump is “mean” and the local Dems is such a nice young guy with a military/law enforcement back ground saying all the right things.
Never mind the fact the Dem is just lying to get votes, it all about how they “feel”.
I agree. Polls exist because there is a whole cottage industry of people who are paid enormous amounts of money to provide information to whoever pays for it (most of the time for biased clients.) Otherwise, what is the purpose of polling if it is guesswork at best and only benefits those that pay for it?
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