Nate Silver: 85% chance Dems win the House

Five Thirty Eight ^ | 10/23/2018 | Nate Silver

[St. Louis Conservative]

in 7 Chance Democrats win control (86.4%) 1 in 7 Chance Republicans keep

[cld51860]

I honestly do not understand how this will happen when turnout already has been reported higher on the R side.

[sourcery]

He’s deliberately trying to create the same cognitive dissonance reaction that resulted in the #Resitance anti-Trumper tantrum following the 2016 election results.

[Salvation]

I don’t think so.

[gibsonguy]

I don’t get this from all I have seen the “Blue Wave” has gotten less and less likely. Does this Rat know something?

[MNJohnnie]

Actually none of that is true. It is just more of Saint Nate’s propaganda. Odd how he is still mindlessly worshiped despite a very bad track record of being mostly wrong since 2012

Also would love to someone ask him why he suddenly decided to base his “analysis” on fund raising advantage now?

Seems he is changing his criteria almost weekly to find some way to keep his pro Democrat spin going for his Media masters

[oblomov]

Yes, but even if all of the polls are accurate, the predicted probability has FAR too little variance.

[MNJohnnie]

Saint Nate has his mindless fans ever here. They just cannot admit their god is nothing but a DNC mouthpiece

[Sarcasm Factory]

Interestingly enough, the nonprofit political futures markets at PredictIt display quite different ideas about the chances of a Democratic takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives. The bettors as a whole seem to think the odds are more like 64/36 although it's hard to say to what extent partisan bias plays a role in shaping this outlook.

https://predictit.org/markets/detail/2890/How-many-House-seats-will-the-GOP-hold-after-2018-midterms/

[Poison Pill]

bet against him at predictit and make some $$$ if you think he’s wrong.

[FranklinsTower]

Glutton for pain Nate?

[gibsonguy]

“He is also currently predicting an 82.3% chance that Republicans keep the Senate.”

Well if he’s saying this too it does seem there’s a chance he’s right. Scary as hell because if the Rats do get the Senate we are looking at the biggest sh*t show this country has ever seen.

[Renegade]

Bullsht

[gibsonguy]

I meant to say if the Rats do get the House and there’s a chance they will. An f’n nightmare but he’s is right about the Senate FWIW.

[Truthoverpower]

Bet me real money pussy boy Nate My loser lib buddies still owe me cases of wine from 16 Then they bet trump would be impeached by now I’ll take more wine 🍷 especially the good shiite !

[HamiltonJay]

He’s a pundit pretending to use math to justify his emotion...

He learned nothing from 16, likely will learn nothing from 18 either

[HamiltonJay]

He’s off on the Senate as well...

GOP 6+ with a top of possible double digits...

[Liz]

I see Nate’s still in Disneyworld...........taking polls in Fantasyland.

[Lazamataz]

This is fun.

Festive, even.

[gibsonguy]

Obviously I hope he’s wrong. The thing is when they completely blew it in 16 l would have thought they would say what why do to get it so wrong and fix the methodology for the next time or risk losing what little credibility they have left. For this reason l have been reluctant to declare the polls BS because if we keep both houses they will look like total idiots....again.

[basalt]

ive been winning bets since May of 2016 from an idiot i went to school with...he just cant accept this...heh heh