Posted on 10/17/2018 8:59:43 AM PDT by Kaslin
If you're a regular reader, this trend doesn't come as a surprise. We've been tracking and flagging it since the Kavanaugh ordeal, which galvanized legions of previously-disengaged or underwhelmed GOP-leaning voters. We've demonstrated how that impact has continued to reverberate, particularly in Senate races. And now, the mainstream conventional wisdom appears to be catching up. Charlie Cook, who leads the vaunted Cook Political Report, is out with a new detailed analysis pointing to a clear uptick in Republicans' fortunes:
Charlie Cook: “One question that keeps coming back up is whether those who led the out-of-control demonstrations on Capitol Hill against the Kavanaugh nomination have any understanding of how much damage they did to Democrats” https://t.co/DfbkIhUmGo— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 16, 2018
The most dramatic change over the last six weeks in the midterm election picture is clearly in the Senate, but the House situation has subtly changed as well. Not long ago, the most likely outcome for the Senate was either no net change at all, or a shift of one seat, so the Senate would remain under GOP control, with the majority holding 50-52 seats. Today, a Republican net gain of a seat or two seems most likely, moving the GOP up to either 52 or 53 seats, though a gain of three seats or no net change are entirely possible. There remains some chance of Democrats picking up two seats and a majority, but those odds are long, no better than 1 in 5, and seemingly getting longer...Once you saw Republicans and conservative voters coming home and getting energized for the first time this election cycle, on top of this lopsided Senate map of seats overwhelmingly in GOP-friendly states, Democrats' hopes went down precipitously.
In the House, Democrats remain heavily favored to capture a majority; the change is that their chances of blowing the House wide open with a gain of 40-50 seats or more have diminished. In the suburban-oriented districts where most of the competitive House races are, things remain extremely challenging for Republicans. A large gender gap driven by suburban, college-educated, and younger women remains a very strong dynamic. But the more rural- and small-town-oriented districts—those with substantial numbers of Republicans, conservatives, and Trump backers—are now fully awake and engaged, moving some of those districts back away from the edge of competitiveness. Republicans were looking quite vulnerable through the summer in districts that one would never guess they would have to worry about. Today, Democrats seem more in line to score a net gain of between 20 and 40 seats.
Three weeks out, the GOP looks like it has a real opportunity to improve upon its current Senate (bare) majority, and has perhaps put itself in a position to mitigate expected losses in the House. Some of these polls are undoubtedly too close for comfort (especially with the distinct possibility of undecideds stampeding toward the Democrats at the last minute), but they're vastly improved over the doomsday scenario some polling projected several months ago. Again, this is not to say that Republicans don't face some real struggles. But things could be, and have been, markedly worse. On the Senate side, the most endangered incumbent on either side is Democrat Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. Already trailing considerably in the polls, Heitkamp's campaign committed a truly dreadful unforced error, publicly identifying a number of women -- some erroneously -- as survivors of assault against their consent. Cornered with concrete evidence of malfeasance, Heitkamp appeared on a conservative radio show in North Dakota yesterday, profusely apologizing for a "colossal" screw-up:
Heitkamp: "This is on me. This has got my name on it... The worse thing you can do is take away their privacy... And I did exactly that. And I need to personally apologize and say I was wrong... There's no sugarcoating this... This was a collosal error."— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) October 16, 2018
This comes on the heels of her 'no' vote against Justice Kavanaugh, which flew in the face of the overwhelming sentiment of her constituents. And her explanations left a lot to be desired. Any hope she had of painting her opponent as insensitive toward female victims vanished when her own ad outed alleged victims without their permission. Meanwhile, I always view New Jersey Senate races as fool's gold for Republicans, but it's clear that national Democrats are getting anxious about scandal-plagued Bob Menendez's status in the Garden State:
Senate Majority PAC, leading Dem super PAC, going up w/ a $3 million statewide ad buy in the New Jersey Senate race -- their first spending in the race— David Wright (@DavidWright_CNN) October 16, 2018
Luckily for Bob, despite this brutal ad dropping on him this week, the cavalry is arriving to help. And by 'cavalry,' I mean Hillary Clinton doing what she does best -- raking in money. But perhaps this wasn't the best omen Team Menendez could have hoped for:
LIVE LOOK at @HillaryClinton trying to save @SenatorMenendez. (Spoiler alert: she crashes.) #NJSen pic.twitter.com/7poUpIYxl6— The Senate Majority (@NRSC) October 16, 2018
I'll leave you with this hilarious fake ad from the Free Beacon team, mashing up Krysten Sinema's damage control commercial with her various attacks against her own state:
Kyrsten Sinema’s new Arizona ad: Elect me Senator, you crazy meth heads. #AZSEN pic.twitter.com/Rcrql1hLjE— Free Beacon (@FreeBeacon) October 15, 2018
One careful statistical review shows Republican Martha McSally on the rise, but the media is doing what it can to run interference for Sinema -- including mischaracterizing an accurate line of criticism from McSally:
Not only did the Washington Post spell “Kyrsten Sinema” wrong, but they also got the quote completely wrong. McSally never accused Sinema of “treason.” She accused Sinema of “saying it’s okay to commit treason,” which is backed up by video evidence.
Delete this @washingtonpost. https://t.co/S7grQGOXsv— Caleb SkHull ?????? (@CalebJHull) October 16, 2018
Yes, Sinema told someone that she didn't object to the prospect of him joining the Taliban to take up arms against the United States. And, contra the best efforts of the hopeless spin artists at Politifact, it's also true that while McSally was bombing terrorists after 9/11, Sinema was protesting the Afghanistan war in a pink tutu. In fact, here's the ad again, just for good measure:
Sinema's post-9/11 radicalism is undeniable.
“Cook, always behind the real curve by about two months.”
On the Real Clear Politics Senate tracking poll all of the seats with Democrats leading have not been polled for about 2 weeks. I think that they are hiding the bad news.
I hear we lose 10 or so total. As long as we hold majority, I’m happy. What a mess it would be if Dems get the house.
If it’s that close I can just hear Pelosi demanding that the GOP must share power in the House. Then there’ll be the spectacle of some House RINOs switching party to give it to her.
tagging for later
Rasmussen and LA Time tracking didn’t “get it wrong” in 2016
I never understood this blind worship for Cooke who is such a transparent DNC stooge among supposed “Conservatives”
“...the distinct possibility of undecideds stampeding toward the Democrats at the last minute.”
No justification given for that assertion...just an unsubstantiated statement. Isn’t the opposite “distinct possibility” just as likely? Why would undecideds break for D?
Exactly! I won't be a bit surprised if we pick up 6-8 seats in the Senate. It's harder for an armchair campaign manager like myself to handicap House races but I'll be very surprised if the Republicans lose the House.
In my case, I made bets with Cook. I don’t do that anymore, he liked very nice restaurants and he always won.
I predict GOP gains in both the House and Senate. This will be followed by an immediate expansion of the Mueller probe against all GOP members of Congress to find proof that Russia interfered with the midterms. <\sarc>
I couldn’t agree more.
The last two elections, 2014 and 2016, showed GOP candidates outperforming polling leading up to Election Day. Hoping that trend continues.
I have as “safe” Cramer (ND), Hawley (MO), McSally (AZ), Cruz (TX), Blackburn (TN; I have as probable Scott (FL), Braun (IN); I have as slight lean Heller (NV) and Renacci (OH); and I have as possible but tossup Hugin (NJ) and Morrissey (WV); I have as “long shot” James (MI); Housely (MN) and Vukmir (WI); and I have as a lost cause PA.
for the Democrats it is, the GOP has the momentum.
‘In 2016, Charlie was right on the money for the House’
I don’t think you understand the drill here; you’re not supposed to mess with the zeitgeist of an echo chamber...
How did he do on the Senate?
Not going to happen, we would still have a 13 seat advantage.
The reality is the money still has us losing the House. But, unlike a few months ago, it’s possible we can keep it. As long as Trump is out there scaring with their talk of impeachment, it could be done.
Right now, I am betting we lose 22 seats and barely keep the House. Senate, we gain 3 seats.
No, we deal with facts, not conjecture. What was his record on the Senate, which was projected to go Democrat by most pollsters?
If we are winning Senate seats, we aren’t going to lose the House and probably no more then 10 seats.
What is your latest bet on the House? How many seats do the Dems pick up?
With this Senate map the GOP only gaining 2-3 seats would be a GOP disaster. Par should be gaining 6-8 seats, a good years gaining even more. With so much of the Democratic House vote concentrated in 70%+ urban Rat holes, and the overall national generic House ballot close to tied, par should mean more 50-55% GOP seats than 70%+ Rat seats, roughly as we have now. Which would still be an improvement with so many RINOs retiring to be replaced by new, more conservative, members. A good GOP house year would be gaining another 20+ seats.
The Rat minority is cooked in by their own identity politics: if they don’t have the 70-80% urban Rat districts they can’t give the radicals, blacks and latinos their demanded seats. They’d have to settle for old style, traditional, moderate, WHITE democrats members if they wanted to ungerrymander the blue states to obtain a House majority. And their internal identity politics won’t allow for that. The lefty media is no longer powerful enough to overcome that. Their vote fraud resources are less effective at the House level as it is they are mostly concentrated in districts they’d win without fraud.
GOP strength at the state and local levels, IF they’ll use it, should minimize vote fraud crossing House district or State boundaries. Whether the traditional GOP establishment can gets its act together enough to actually use those advantages remains to be seen. That the Turtle and his co-RINOs have pushed so many Trump nominations through the Senate with the narrowest of majorities offers some evidence that the national GOP establishment is learning to fight from Trump, rather than continuing to fight against Trump. And, although the Rats having been pouring private lefty megabucks into many races the RNC has a LOT more money to spend than the DNC and may well spend it more timely and effectively than the crazy lefties.
You can find the 2016 Senate Results here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016
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