Posted on 10/12/2018 3:30:52 PM PDT by mandaladon
A poll released Friday shows Republican congressional candidate Wendy Rogers with a widening lead over Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ) in Arizona’s First Congressional District, indicating a potential Republican pickup in November. The poll, conducted by Go Right Strategies for the Rogers campaign, shows 44.4 percent support for Rogers and 37.5 percent for O’Halleran, with 18.1 still undecided. The sample size is 943 landline respondents, and the margin of error is three points.
Polling in Arizona’s First District, where Democrats have pulled out comfortable victories in each of the three election cycles since it took its current map, has been sparse this campaign season.
The First District is massive, stretching south from the Phoenix exurbs and snaking east and north to encompass more than half of Arizona’s landmass and widely diverse constituents ranging from the country’s largest Indian reservations to the ski town of Flagstaff to the suburbs of Tucson. No independent polls have been published, and the O’Halleran campaign has not released any of its own surveys. The polling analysts at both Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight rate the race as “leans Democrat” for this year, with the latter site finding it “likely Democrat” in some of its models.
The poll released Friday, however, is the second in a row by Go Right to show Rogers leading the race. Their figures cite “Likely voters who voted in the 2016 and 2014 General Election” and use turnout data broken down by county and party affiliation from 2016.
The last poll had Rogers just more than three points ahead in a survey conducted at the end of last month. Friday’s poll, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, used the same methodology, showing a nearly four-point shift to Rogers in the two weeks since Christine Blasey Ford testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Nice!
The Red Tide Rises.
Prayers for a RED Arizona in November.
Things are going in the right direction!
Meethinks there is a hidden anti-"Christine Blatant Fraud" vote lurking among white males (and many females who don't hate all males like they're supposed to).
Still within Dem margin of fraud. Don’t be overconfident.
Meethinks there is a hidden anti-”Christine Blatant Fraud” vote lurking among white males (and many females who don’t hate all males like they’re supposed to).
><
Definitely!
I’ve talked to several independent voters here who have decided to vote straight GOP. They are fed up by the hearings.
If the Ds don’t even have AZ1 their chances of winning the House are nonexistent. And we have to start considering scenarios such as the Ds actually losing seats.
I think it’s time to start floating the word “shellacking” again.
Bring on the big red wave!
You’re probably right. Still, we can’t become complacent. I’m remembering Alabama electing a pro-abortion Dem senator.
This may be real, and it may be a biased #FakeNews poll from our side. There is really no way to know about almost any district this election. So few voters will talk to pollsters this year, and those who respond are apparently different voters from two years ago, so that it’s impossible to guess what poll results even mean.
O’Halleran is the kind of low profile democrat who could cause great mischief if the dems ever got the house back. The first district of AZ is drawn so as to include the majority of indigenous Native Americans in the state and they tend to vote pro-life. Unfortunately they also vote pro-welfare so in recent elections the dems have carried them. That changed in 2016 when Navajo and Apache counties, which make up the Navajo "Big Res", Hopi, Zuñi and Apache reservations split, one going for Clinton, one going for Trump. If that split holds, O’Halleran is in real trouble.
I am in the far southern end of the CD (Oro Valley). Neither candidate is running ads as O’Halleran was considered a shoo-in.
All the ads here are Marquez-Peterson vs. Kirkpatrick (Tucson) and McSally vs. Sinema.
Sinema is in BIG trouble as her loony leftist past is just coming to fore.
#CrushTheResistance
Impossible. There is a blue wave coming. Mad Maxine said so.
Fine. Just don’t count your chickens.
This is more than accurate. Vote vote vote though. Not sure how to link but an article came out today of a 2003 tape where the dem says its “ok to go and fight for the Taliban.” She’s toast.
well now...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.