Posted on 10/10/2018 12:06:00 PM PDT by yesthatjallen
Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said on Wednesday that Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings will wake up Republicans who were previously wavering on the party's leadership.
"There's no question that the Kavanaugh hearings woke up Republicans who [were] really not so sure about Donald Trump, not so sure how important it is for them to support Republicans in Congress, who they really don't like, I mean Republicans don't feel very favorably about their own congressional leadership," Mellman, CEO of the Mellman Group, told Hill.TV's Joe Concha on "What America's Thinking."
"Election is still a month off, and the reality is Kavanaugh is seated as justice of the Supreme Court. The issue's over. So are they going to go back to their previous lethargy or are they going to continue to be excited? We have no idea yet," he said.
A Politico/Morning Consult poll released on Wednesday found that 68 percent of Republicans said they were "very motivated" to vote in November's midterm elections.
Democrats are even more energized, with 77 percent saying they were "very motivated" to vote.
Marist Poll director Lee Miringoff said it is natural for both sides to become more energized as the midterms near.
"I'm not surprised that that might not have happened as we get closer anyways," Miringoff said.
"The president was planning to do what he's now doing, which is fairly independent of the whole Kavanaugh thing. So I would expect the Democrats to go in with the enthusiasm advantage," he continued.
The WalkAway Campaign is growing. My early voting ballot will be mailed in about three hours.
Interesting video at the link below of Strata talking about the growing success of his campaign.
http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=139234
That's telling for all other races in the country too - the Kavanaugh effect... if Kavanaugh was the democrat's "October Surprise" - they're hurting.
This idea that during midterms the party in power loses, is hogwash.
I don’t recall that lazy POS George Bush campaigning like Trump is. Trump, to be sure is riding a stream of being popular, but he out works everyone, and he energizes the people out there running.
Don’t tell me it has to do with anything but getting the people out to vote. Trump is doing that.
I am very excited. Early voting starts in GA Monday.
Looks to me that we’ll lose some seats in congress, net, but gain in the Senate. I’m crossing my fingers, as wouldn’t be delightful if we did really well in ALL of the Senate races? Maybe not winning them all but coming close?
I’m seeing a pickup of 4 now. 6 would be unbelievable, but possible.
If it stabilizes at 100,000, any statewide R has to win indies 3:2 to have a shot.
Shouldn't that be:
If it stabilizes at 100,000, any statewide R democrat has to win indies 3:2 to have a shot. ?
Thanks, Larry. Encouraging.
All things considered, the Dems are in trouble.
Thanks Larry, for the detailed prognostications!
All good news. But: don’t let it get around. Dems need to be complacent; MAGA voters need to be energized!
I've been watching the TX-7 race between Culberson (R, incumbent) and Fletcher (D). RCP has one poll from September 14-18 by the NYT/Sienna with Culberson+3 (48-45).
Democrats are hitting this district hard with a stealth candidate in Fletcher. She's running a "reach across the aisle, work with both parties..." candidate who doesn't mention her party in her ads.
I'm particularly concerned because this is the wealthiest district in Houston, containing Westheimer Road, the Memorial district, River Oaks, West University Place (where that councilwoman yelled obscenities at young girls wearing MAGA shirts on a line at a cookie shop), and the “energy corridor” up towards Jersey Village and Cypress. This district would be a good "get" for Pelosi.
Have you heard anything more about TX-7?
-PJ
Thanks for that positive report. Here in Oregon there will be no change in the house. 4 Dems and 1 Republican will return. But we have a very good chance of picking up a Governorship. Brown(D) is so horrible, her own party can’t stand her. With the House races basically not contested, it’s possible Dems will not be energized to vote here. Brown is only at +2. A statistical tie.
Excellent news about two new Judges in the 9th Circuit!
Yes. The God of Houston, Mattress Mack Jim Macingvale did an ad for Culberson.
Mack rescued hundreds of Houston families in the flood. He is revered like the Pople.
He is good for a couple of points. Culberson, I think, is safe.
Yep. I think Ds get 9-15 seats in the House net, lost 4-7 net in the Senate.
The pollsters and the Democrats misunderstand the issue. It wasn't just that Kavanaugh was unfairly maligned. It was the crazy way the protesters and the Democrat Senate went about trying to bully everyone. And by the looks of it, Eric Holder and Hillary Clinton are ratcheting up the rhetoric. As long as the Democrats are in this rage, the voters are going to be turned off by them, and will feel an urgent need to support the GOP.
Loved your article in Big League Politics, too. :-)
Totally agree. It was a fake narrative invented by the DNC.
I’m looking at the Senate. You don’t want to be overly optimistic, but DJT is scheduled for at least 10 more rallies from now until 11/6. I’m sure he’ll squeeze some two and three a days in there too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_post-election_Donald_Trump_rallies
That said, we might see us take in more than 7 Senate seats:
Long Shot Loueys Give us just one of these.
1. PA Lou Barletta might make it closer than you think.
2. MI John James is a very impressive guy. Might do well
3. NJ I think Menendez will lose.
We’re In The Fight Give us two of these
4. WV Joe Manchin One more visit by Trump and we got it.
5. MN I think Tina Smith might lose here.
6. AZ I think the latest will take us over the top
7. FL Nelson is going down
I think we’ll take all of these:
8. IN
9. MO
10. MT
11. NV
12. TN
13. ND
14. TX
In summary, I see us picking up 7 to 9 seats. Giving us 58 to 60 seats.
I think you’re right about the House, we lose, but stay ahead.
Thanks for the post, Larry.
My comment: I sure do hope the Republicans are “woke up!”
WE MUST PREVAIL ON NOVEMBER 6!
Renacci is winnable in Ohio but a huge lack of signs for him or Brown. I
take it to mean the race is somehow being downplayed. Any ideas?
No, I think it means that in this dangerous age, people are afraid to put up signs. I’ll know more this week from my guys in OH.
I don’t see brown signs either. Are they hoping for a low turnout?
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