Posted on 09/12/2018 9:54:55 AM PDT by mandaladon
Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) has taken a narrow lead over Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in the Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) according to a new ABC15–OH Predictive Insights poll released Wednesday.
It is McSally's first lead in the poll that comes just under eight weeks before the midterm elections.
The poll shows McSally overtaking Sinema with 49 percent of the likely vote compared to Sinema’s 46 percent, a difference that falls within the margin of error. Sinema had led by 6 points in the poll earlier this year.
Both candidates enjoy positive favorability ratings by similar margins. McSally has a 49-39 favorable/unfavorable rating, and Sinema has a 47-38 favorable/unfavorable rating.
However, McSally, whose approval rating has been tied to that of President Trump in past polls, is buoyed by improved numbers for the president in Arizona.
Trump is above water with about 51 percent of likely Arizona voters approving of the job he’s doing so far, compared with 47 percent who disapprove of his job performance.
He also has made significant gains among crucial swing demographics. His approval rating spiked 17.3 percent among likely voters aged 55-64, 13.3 percent among likely voters with a bachelor’s degree and 11.1 percent among women.
OH Predictive Insights surveyed 597 likely Arizona voters from Sept. 5 to 6.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
This is the time in an election cycle when the polls change. They have to shift to likely voter polls and abandon registered voters, and they must build a track record that demonstrates the credibility of the poll. No one cares about the pre Labor Day polls, but they do watch the post Labor Day polls. If they aren’t close on Election Day, the polling company’s brand suffers.
It’s like Hurricane warnings, nobody pays attention when the hurricane is in the middle of the Atlantic. But, now, they better be right about Hurricane Florence, we are paying attention.
I have to say I’ve been very impressed by McSally. A lot of people, rightfully in many ways, were lukewarm to hostile to her, here, but after seeing the mistakes Ward made and how well McSally has run her campaign it’s beyond obvious she was the right choice.
Amazing since a lot of us no longer respond to polling calls. I’m worried about McSally but there is no doubt about Sinema, she will be Chuckies new best friend and PDJTs worst enemy
as Rush always says, the closer you get to election day the more honest the pollsters have to be to keep their credibility . . .
In 2016 you could at least blame the silent Trump voter for the inaccuracy.
This is an old, old pattern (media trick). Show the Dem ahead until mid-Sept or early Oct, then start reporting somewhat more accurate polls that show the Rep ahead.
The Pink Tutu ad is having an effect.
Sinema is being outed as the freak radical Code Pink weirdo she really is.
Shoulda read your post.
That is what changed it.
All the people in Mesa, Tempe and Chandler are seeing Sinema the way she really is, not the way the AZ Republic tries to portray her.
She’s a total whackjob. Even the Mexicans are gonna be scratching their heads about her - she’s alien to them, too.
Vote early and vote often.
I pray that AZ voters (and the voters of other states) are large enough and strong enough to overcome whatever cheating scheme/mechanism the Dems have planned.
ABC15 is so anti-Trump but glad to read McSally is a tad bit ahead.
Excerpts from Heavy.com News
Kyrsten Sinema: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know
1. She’s the First Openly Bisexual Person Elected to Congress
2. She Spent Two Years Homeless as a Child...
3. She was a Social Worker Before Going Into Politics...
4. She Once Described Herself as a “Prada Socialist”....
She’d made too many inflammatory statements and was viewed as too much of a left-winger. Even when she entered the race for Arizona’s 9th Congressional District, many believed her past would come back to haunt her if she made it to the general election. … Sinema entered Arizona politics as a radical. She worked on Ralph Nader’s 2000 presidential campaign, protested against the invasion of Afghanistan and ran unsuccessfully for the Legislature as an independent in 2002, when the Arizona Democratic Party dubbed her “too extreme” for central Phoenix. In 2004, she was elected as a Democrat, and quickly earned a reputation as a standard-bearer for the party’s progressive wing in the Legislature.
But when Sinema toned things down and started reaching across the aisle, things started to change. She began working with Republicans on bipartisan legislation….
When AZCentral reported Sinema’s senatorial run, it quoted a statement from National Republican Senatorial Committee Communications Director Katie Martin saying “Kyrsten Sinema has more in common with the failed, radical leadership of Nancy Pelosi than she does with Arizonan families, and her track record of voting in lockstep with Washington Democrats will haunt her uphill campaign for Senate.”
5. She Grew up Mormon but is no Longer With the LDS Church
Sinema was raised in the Mormon church. During those bleak childhood years when she lived in an abandoned gas station, her family did get occasional help from other members of their congregation (including the clothes Sinema wore), plus frequent visits to a Mormon food pantry. She later attended Brigham Young University on a full scholarship.
When looking back on her record of personal and political success stories, Sinema later said “I benefited from the help of church and family and government my whole life.”
Her parents still follow the church’s teachings (in 2013, when the Washington Post ran its lifestyle story about Arizona’s then-new Congresswoman, Sinema’s parents were on a Mormon missionary trip in the Philippines), but Sinema’s religious views changed after she left college and entered young adulthood. As she said to the Washington Post “I have great respect for the LDS church — their commitment to family and taking care of each other …. I just don’t believe the tenets of the faith that they believe.”
While she has never criticized the religious traditions of her childhood, she is opposed to faith groups’ intervention in politics; during a gay-marriage battle in 2008, Sinema said “I don’t think Arizonans are interested in having the Mormon religion dictate public policy to them.”
Well that's just from the City of Chandler. Then you can drive over to Mesa, Gilbert, Tempe (especially), Queen Creek and vote from there too !
She needs to be elected but lets not have any illusions, McSally is McCain in panties, she is not a friend of conservatives.
McSally is known as a RINO so she picks up a lot of McCainiacs and liberals.
[after seeing the mistakes Ward made]
That doesn’t usually happen in Sept, bad sign for the Democrat.
I was waiting for a call from the VA - phones rings, wife picks it up, thinking it's them - someone asks for me by name, so she hands it to me.
Turned out to be a poll, which I normally don't answer, but decided to play along this time. They were even handed, but used the "children ripped from their mother's arms" rhetoric for each party's candidates.
Told 'em I was DEFINITELY (one of their options) going to vote for McSally and Ducey. Took about five minutes, but they left me laughing at the hyperbolic way they phrased the questions.
I don’t even think we lose Nevada.
Polls only have Rosen at a one point lead.
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