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Hurricane Florence & Isaac
NHC/NOAA ^ | 9 September 2018 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse

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To: eyedigress
"This storm drifted closer to MB. Hotels in Columbia, Charlotte and Raleigh are booked. The brunt on Holden and Sunset will be hell. Not good. I am in Concord BTW."

No or little room in the inn around Upstate South Carolina and Asheville NC because of a equestrian event in Tryon. Bad construction delays on I-85 at Greenville, SC. For evacuees from the beaches when they arrive in Columbia SC, I-20 to Georgia may be a better bet than I-26 to the hills and mountains.

601 posted on 09/12/2018 4:32:05 AM PDT by buckalfa (I was so much older then, but I'sm younger than that now.)
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To: eyedigress
"This storm drifted closer to MB. Hotels in Columbia, Charlotte and Raleigh are booked. The brunt on Holden and Sunset will be hell. Not good. I am in Concord BTW."

No or little room in the inn around Upstate South Carolina and Asheville NC because of a equestrian event in Tryon. Bad construction delays on I-85 at Greenville, SC. For evacuees from the beaches when they arrive in Columbia SC, I-20 to Georgia may be a better bet than I-26 to the hills and mountains.

602 posted on 09/12/2018 4:32:05 AM PDT by buckalfa (I was so much older then, but I'sm younger than that now.)
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To: NautiNurse

Oh, look: FEMA recently simulated just this hurricane:

https://nypost.com/2018/09/12/worst-case-scenario-hurricane-simulation-alarmingly-similar-to-florence-forecast/


603 posted on 09/12/2018 4:48:18 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: NautiNurse

Forecast confidence increases dramatically between 48 hours out and 24 hours out, and and we are entering that window for landfall.

We’re well into that window already for pre-landfall effects with a storm this large. Anyone under the bulk of the spaghetti curves who isn’t on the road, or at least one foot out the door, is running late.


604 posted on 09/12/2018 6:26:09 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: jeffers

605 posted on 09/12/2018 6:37:28 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: NautiNurse

I have access to VDEM advisories.

Right now, they don’t know much more than you or I know. In VA, we think we are in a holding pattern at least until the weekend. A lot of people expect Florence to loop around to the north, so we may get the tail end.

It has already rained here the last four days (unrelated to hurricane). When you add that to record rainfalls in the spring and summer, as well as mountains known to have landslides, there are still a lot of bad possibilities in the near term.


606 posted on 09/12/2018 6:40:55 AM PDT by independentmind (Sticks and stones will break my bones, but words will never hurt me.)
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To: jeffers

Yes huge storm area wise and on that point if the eye is 40 miles wide for example and the forecast models have the center stalling 20 miles offshore the eyewall would be onshore.. if the eye were smaller that wouldn’t be the case

Also it moves along the coastline SW. that’s bad but not as bad as moving NE because the NW offshore flow will upswell colder water more quickly and the storm would be moving over that water .. even on non hurricane days an offshore flow up wells colder water near the coast


607 posted on 09/12/2018 6:42:36 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: Guenevere

I have vacationed at Blowing Rock, NC a number of times. Can’t imagine 4 to 8 inches of rain all at once on that mountainous area with convoluted roads.


608 posted on 09/12/2018 6:43:27 AM PDT by KC Burke (If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
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To: dirtboy

Is Flo still looking annular?


609 posted on 09/12/2018 6:44:39 AM PDT by mewzilla (Has the FBI been spying on members of Congress?)
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To: mewzilla

Somewhat, yes. Looks more like a big honkin’ donut instead of having distinct feeder bands.


610 posted on 09/12/2018 6:46:55 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: All

pressure went up a few MB last pass 945 to 948


611 posted on 09/12/2018 7:00:09 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

another double wind max on recon data....another eyewall replacement underway??


612 posted on 09/12/2018 7:07:54 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

she may fall to a CAT 3 for the time being as the newer outer and even larger eye tries to take over...recon finding the storm has grown yet again area wise


613 posted on 09/12/2018 7:10:43 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: Jane Long

I’ll add here that we have a couple large 5v USB battery banks (two outputs, 20,000 maH total) and a couple smaller ones, along with a couple 4 port chargers. The big banks allow one to accumulate substantial energy relatively quickly, in case one gets into rationing the generator (ie., off as much as or more than on), can be charged from a car too, and are very portable of course.

We also have a stash of NiMh A - D & also Li 18650 batteries with a couple chargers including one that runs off 120v AC or 12v DC. (My 18650 powered LED headlamps are great, even if way overrated on eBay.)

An aside: I’d trade this pattern giving us wonderful weather in the Midwest for quite a bit worse, if it’d “ease” things for those in the way of Florence, but, I don’t think THAT prayer is going to work... :-(


614 posted on 09/12/2018 7:20:19 AM PDT by Paul R.
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To: All

I should add since Hugo there has been huge population growth along the coast

For example New Hanover county(Wilmington)
pop 1990 120K
pop 2017 227K


615 posted on 09/12/2018 7:23:18 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

Not good - a larger wind field usually means more storm surge...


616 posted on 09/12/2018 7:24:27 AM PDT by Paul R.
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To: Paul R.
Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence. These enormous waves are produced by being trapped along with very strong winds moving in the same direction the storm's motion. #HurricaneFlorence https://t.co/26J6Uogt6o pic.twitter.com/mdjGD5yibg -- NHC_TAFB (@NHC_TAFB) September 12, 2018
617 posted on 09/12/2018 7:31:23 AM PDT by Paul R.
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To: janetjanet998

Yes, an offshore stall 20 miles out, with a 40 mile eye puts the eyewall onshore, but to me, the more important point there is the “Andrew Syndrome.”

Typically, landfall kills the storm. But with certain coastal geometries, landfall can occur while the storm still receives full oceanic support. This would be one of those cases. 24 hours under a high Cat-3 eyewall would do grievious damage to Wilmington, Charleston or both , from wind alone.

I suspect estuary surge would tend more towards cumulative, rather than pulse, as well. The Japan Tsunami proved conclusively that water WILL flow uphill with enough additional water behind it, pushing.


618 posted on 09/12/2018 7:32:49 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: janetjanet998

619 posted on 09/12/2018 7:38:37 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

For what it’s worth Joe bastardi that’s just recently posted that it’s going to hit Savannah I’m not real sure about that but I’m not a weather person


620 posted on 09/12/2018 8:02:54 AM PDT by Mmogamer (I refudiate the lamestream media, leftists and their prevaricutions.)
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