Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
Ouch!
Low wind sheer and 'BATH WATER' are formulas for Hurricane strengthening.
If it has sustained winds of 145 mph, then it could have gusts higher than that. Fortunately, it is projected to have 140 mph sustained winds as it approaches the Carolina...
Watching from Wilmington here.
Good plan. There is a high misery index with flooding in Cumberland County.
Hawaii got lucky with Lane..but..
***HAMPTON ROADS ALERT****population 1.4 million
so two camps...
1)a more west track over NC and a stall for days bringing massive inland flooding
2) stalling over/near the outer banks, less inland flooding but will send a large storm surge into the bay and Hampton roads area..which use to be a swamp..military bases in danger..plus any runoff from rain will not be able to drain out of the bay either for days
Are you preparing to leave?
I am in Cary and even though this is inland, I will never forget the horrible damage Fran did to us here. The winds went on all night and the damage looked like bomb blasts had gone off.
I don’t know yet if I am going to bug out and head West or just go to a local motel that should be more secure than my present location.
Thanks for this thread.
While there is still a lot of ocean batween Florence and the U.S. Atlantic coast, Florence is a rather large storm, with tropical storm winds extending outward up to 115 miles from the center. Folks should not wait until the last minute to learn they need to bug out.
Right now preparing both options, but will probably stay in place.
I’ve got a bareboat charter next weekend in the keys! Should be ok but we’ll be watching Isaac closely!
Fran (1996) was an awful time for those of us living inland. That hellish night and aftermath was 22 years ago. Plenty of time for more brittle trees to reach dangerous heights. Hopefully, folks are keeping their tall trees further away from buildings. The inland trees are not wind hardy like trees near the coast which grow up with constant breezes.
Understand....best of luck to you.
also some models develop a system is the SW Gulf
NHC just mentioned it for this first timeThe combination of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms between Cuba and Honduras.
Upper-level winds could become somewhat more conducive for some
development when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico in a
couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
I bet there are going to be lots of trees cut down between now and Friday in central NC.....at least I hope so.
Of course there are a lot of newbies in our area who were not here for Fran and who do not have any idea how horrible a Coastal landing hurricane can be for us inlanders.
There will be a run on water and bread and batteries I am sure...but don’t know if people will bug out or not.
Joe Bistardi of Weatherbell has been dead on regarding his prediction for the season, and for Florence. (Scroll down that page for the videos).
Over a week ago, he predicted it's formation and projected path - which is pretty much where the models tend to center right now. It's still early and things will change, but right now it looks like just a hair south of Wilmington NC is approximate (maybe a bit north, maybe a bit south).
To those who say it will veer north or out to sea, the models say otherwise. They are all pretty much in agreement this time.
This latest has it almost a direct hit on Wilmington:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2018/hurricane-florence?map=forecast
Joe Bastardi is the best weather forecaster on the planet right now (has been for years).
Same here. We had an Issac sit over us for three days. 8 days without power. The east coast is overdue and can have them all!
Category 2 inland near Fayetteville (or anywhere) is a scary thought.
Hang in there Appy. Keep in touch with the track. It's always a tough decision (and timely) to either stick it out, or go somewhere else for awhile. How often does the ferry run?
If It hits North Carolina I shudder for the effects/ high winds on Western North Carolina
...........we’ve been inundated with rain all summer.....the forests are soaked and the trees vulnerable........
....last year one tree fell, knocked down a power line and a huge swath of our little mountain town was without power for hours.
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