Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
Projected landfall shifted towards Morehead City
Projected landfall shifted towards Morehead City
Chincoteague, Va has issued evacuations as well.
No word about the ponies yet.
GFS model shifted west about 50-75 miles but still stalls just off coast...data in thru 90 hours
Interstate 26 east will close in the morning to make all lanes westbound (inland) out of Charleston SC.
https://abcnews4.com/news/local/i-26-east-i-526-to-close-tuesday-at-5-am-in-advance-of-lane-reversal
Guess it’s nothing compared to what’s headed for folks in the Carolinas, but here in central PA the Susquehanna is rising fast and forecast to go two feet over flood stage tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Add in the inevitable ‘cane rains in the next few days and this side of the river mightn’t be able to get to the bridges to get to the other side of the river.
Seems like it’s done nothing but rain here all summer :-\
/whine
The new intensity forecast calls for continued strengthening to near category 5 strength
Stay safe, FRiends :-\\
here in the west we really have had no rain for well over two months...we had one day where it was misting with a light sprinkle but it wasn’t more than 1/4 of an inch..for the entire day...
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maxima to 30 inches
near Florence’s track over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and
northern South Carolina through Saturday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.
The wild Spanish Mustangs likely ended up there, from Assateague and Chincoteague all the way down the NC Outer Banks, due to Spanish Galleons sinking in hurricanes.
So, obviously they can swim, Ive seen them swimming on the sound side at the 4x4 beaches above Corolla NC, they still run free there.
They’ve been on those barrier islands for going on 500 years, through worse weather than this. They’ll be OK.
Last year when we had our “Florence” here in the Keys there were few hotel,motel rooms anywhere in the state. We got lucky and stayed with friends in North Fla. at the Villages. You gotta wonder what will happen in the Carolinas?
My aunt lives in Exmore (Chincotague) — she’s evacuating to Annapolis. I have feeling it’s going to land between NC & VA border.
Regards!
As I suggested yesterday the landfall right now is near Moorehead City well North of Wilmington.I will be surprised if it doesn’t change again. These things seldom take straight lines.If I were in the area my biggest fear would be cat five level and a slowing of forward speed, both spell looming disaster.
It’s nothing for the delicate road to the Outer Banks,HWY.12, to flood or even become cut in two. It’s happened before.Also it accumulates huge piles of sand in no time at all.Dangerous place to be.
If I lived anywhere between SC and MD and was planning on evacuating, I would stay away from any place near a river or other large body of water.
Annapolis does not fit those criteria.
Just adding some FYI to the soup. Windy.com this morning has it landing at Wrightsville Beach still but then sitting and spinning there for a full day or more before beginning a more westward movement inland and up toward Charlotte. Gives a little credence to this “atmospheric wall” they are talking about.
Choosing to remain on a barrier island during a major hurricane is not a sound decision.
Suspect a lot are going to end up with a ten hour plus drive into Tennessee, and that’s with no traffic jams.
FNC reporting all flights out of Charleston SC are sold out at this time.
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