Trump’s dipping approval is putting Republicans in dangerous territory (LOL LOL LOL)

The Washington Compost ^ | September 6 at 3:35 PM | Paul Waldman

[E. Pluribus Unum]

“We’re doing a great job,” said President Trump yesterday in a surprise endorsement of his own success. “The poll numbers are through the roof. Our poll numbers are great. And guess what? Nobody is going to come close to beating me in 2020 because of what we’ve done.”

Though Trump can always be counted on to testify to his unblemished record of winning, it was odd he chose to focus on poll numbers right at the moment, because one place they are not going is “through the roof.”

In fact, Trump’s numbers are dropping to near the lowest point of his presidency. In the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, Trump’s approval rating is at 36 percent, and a majority of respondents strongly disapprove of his performance. An IBD/TIPP poll also puts the president at 36 percent, while the Economist shows him at 38 percent. Some others have him above 40 percent (Gallup’s latest is 41 percent), but not by much.

This isn’t a dramatic swing, but it is an identifiable downturn, especially since Trump’s approval ratings have been so stable over the course of his presidency. And if there was ever a moment when a small change could make a big difference, this is it.

Precisely locating the cause of incremental movements in presidential approval polls is next to impossible, particularly when we’re talking about Trump. There are so many cataclysmic things happening in any given week, there is no way to say with certainty what caused the change. But there are some likely suspects from the last few weeks — including the multiple former Trump aides who were either convicted or pleaded guilty to crimes, as well as the death of John McCain — which led to extensive media ruminations on Trump’s character flaws.

[LS]

The Brown poll is the result of Renacci slowly getting his name rec up. He’s over 50% now. When he gets to be 80%, it’s over.

Again, my OH guys did an amazing analysis of the so-called “unaffiliated” voters in OH. The SecState has GOP at +600,000 registration, but there were a huge number of “unaffiliated” voters (Not truly “independents,” but Ds or Rs who didn’t vote in the previous election.

My friends conducted a serious research into how households voted going back to 2000, and were able to use sample districts to extrapolate from Montgomery County to the whole state.

The result was that the GENUINE Republican advantage is only 300,000-—but that’s after allocating ALL but about 1,000 of the unaffiliated voters. It means that using a “high turnout” model . . .

Rs win, Ds lose any statewide race.

Using a “low turnout” model . . .

Rs win, Ds lose.

The only scenario in which the Ds could win statewide OH races was with a high D turnout and a low R turnout.

Increasingly, I think DeWine wins by 5-6 and Renacci ekes out a win.

[Liz]

The more Obama, Michelle, Hillary, Nanzi and Maxine campaign, the higher Trump’s numbers will go.