Posted on 08/27/2018 9:41:47 AM PDT by SMGFan
Challenger Rosendale leads Tester by 2 points, within the margin of error
Republican Matt Rosendale led Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester by 2 points, within the margin of error, in a Republican poll of the race conducted this month.
Rosendale, the Montana auditor, was ahead, 47 percent to 45 percent, in the survey conducted by WPA Intelligence for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Five percent were undecided. Rosendale won the GOP nomination in June to take on Tester, who’s running for his third term. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Tilts Democratic.
(Excerpt) Read more at rollcall.com ...
I see a Trump rally in Montana!
How do the Democrats continue to tread water in Montana? Seems like the last place I’d expect to vote Dem.
We need Montana to nullify that incoming POS from Utah.
If this race is close now, that’s a good thing. Maybe a Trump visit to Montana can seal the deal closer to the election.
Because Tester is considered a “conservative” or “moderate” Dem...despite the fact that he RARELY votes with conservatives and almost ALWAYS votes with the far-left nutjobs.
There is a line out of Alabama’s “Song of the South” that applies to parts of the west as well: Daddy was a veteran, a Southern Democrat, I’ve yet to meet a rich man that would vote like that. Folks of that mindset are a dying breed but are still 5-15% of the voters in some places.
Republicans are feeling good about the Montana Senate race
Here’s one reason Republicans are feeling better about the Montana Senate race: a new internal poll for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) shows Republican candidate Matt Rosendale leading Democratic Sen. Jon Tester by two points.
Why it matters: While this poll doesn’t mean Democrats are certain to lose, they can’t afford to give up this Senate seat in November. Montana’s Senate seat is one of 10 Democrats are defending in states Trump won in 2016.
Two caveats to this poll: (1) the sample size is 600 likely voters around the state and (2) the margin of error is 4 points, meaning that Tester could, in fact, be ahead. And the Real Clear Politics average has Tester up by 5.5 points.
The poll also shows that Tester has a 49% favorable rating compared to Rosendale’s 44%.
Illegal immigration is the top concern (24%) among the likely voters surveyed for this poll. That could help Rosendale fire up the Republican base in Montana, especially after President Trump tweeted “Democrats like Jon Tester continue to support the open borders agenda – Tester even voted to protect Sanctuary Cities. We need lawmakers who will put America First.”
Realclearpolitics averages RV & LV, I’ll ignore it.
I’ve never been there, but have heard that Montana politics has some unusual characteristics. Such as, both Democrats and Republicans there tend to be small government or libertarian in their ideology.
So while the state will often go Republican in presidential elections, they have strong local Democrat party activities.And as we see, Democrat Jon Tester has won Senate elections there.
Anyone know about Montana, please weigh in.
Tester votes with Schumer. He is no conservative.
The leftists abandoned the failed state of California completely due to THEIR virtue signaling policies and moved to Montana to set up shop and now destroy that state as well.
The same story repeated endlessly across the country. Liberals foul their own nest and then seek to escape what the disaster visited upon them by their own making and then migrating to a red state where they subsequently seek to destroy that area due to their myopically deceptive self view of moral superiority.
Very true and there needs to be a coordinated GOP get out to vote drive.
Trump & TV ads must be effective!
Tester.. Schumer.. Pelosi... Maxine Waters.. hand in hand for America’s future!
“Because Tester is considered a “conservative” or “moderate” Dem...”
We have two members of the US House (in our state) who have somehow succeeded in crafting that reputation as well. They have, with a few scattered votes, succeeded in their GOP-leaning districts as “moderates”. They also talk a good game when back in their districts.
They are Tim Walz (who’s running for Governor the same way he an for the House) and Collin Peterson.
Both Richard Baris and I now think Testicles is done in MT.
This will be another flip. I now have that as net gains for Rs of 4-6 seats.
If we hold BOTH AZ and NV, make it 5-7. NJ is a sleeper, but entirely doable. Could be 6-8.
Then it will come down to whether we can eke out a surprise in WI, WV, MI, OH, or PA. We could get one of those.
Bigger GOP pickup... increass chance that a reelected Manchin switches parties?
Can we compare him to Shelby & Campbell who switched as well?
Even in my lifetime, there was an era when North Dakota (Quentin Burdick), South Dakota (George McGovern), Montana (Mike Mansfield), Wyoming (Gale McGee), Idaho (Frank Church) and Utah (Frank Moss) were all represented by far left U.S. Senators who were good at bringing home pork.
Utah, Wyoming(1976) and Idaho (1980) were the first to leave that sorry club. The other three haven't quite made a clean break.
These states make up roughly 18% of the land area of the Lower 48 but only 22 total electoral votes (4.1%). Montana is arguably the poorest and most pork dependent of the six.
I think if Manchin sees that the GOP is beyond the margin of neverTrumpers (Tom Collins, MurCowSki) he may switch . . . if he wins.
He would have far more clout in a GOP majority than as an outcast in a DemoKKKrat minority.
Its somewhere north of Arizona has mountains and is cold in winter.
Come on, Montana. Figure this out. If Tester is such a Trump supporter, why have both President Trump and Vice President Pence been to Montana to campaign against Tester? He's no ally of Trump nor of Montana. Tester quickly went all-Beltway.
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