I think if Manchin sees that the GOP is beyond the margin of neverTrumpers (Tom Collins, MurCowSki) he may switch . . . if he wins.
He would have far more clout in a GOP majority than as an outcast in a DemoKKKrat minority.
Virginia is for locers
West Virginia is for switchers
Except Manchin sees himself as the next Bill Clinton. He wants to be President - appearing to the voters as a moderate democrat from a conservative state. The sane safe place between two extremes - the whole Morris triangulation political strategy. He stays Rat so he can “pick up the pieces” of a shattered Rat party and be the “moderate” standard barrier for the “New” Rat party.
I see a couple of flaws in that strategy:
1) This is not 1992, things are far more polarized, every “Rat party piece” he picks up will be much farther left then he wants to be.
2) He’s not Slick William he has little to no charisma. He doesn’t have any of Slick’s political skill.
3) Not having a zipper problem is not enough.
4) To have any sort of a future he has to go GOP. I think that ship has sailed, his value to the GOP is minimal now. I do predict he will try and do a Liebermann and go independent. I don’t think that will help him much.