Notes On Ohio's Election & Note on AZ

No matter what else you hear or read, keep this in mind: for the next three months Troy Balderson (R) will be voting in the US House, not a fruitball DemoKKKrat.

It's time we all readjust our thinking. There is too much analysis of how "red" or "blue" districts are, and, I think, a little too much expectation of a blowout because a district has a lot of Republicans.

While I don't watch the NFL anymore, this is akin to those games on the schedule where you used to say, "Oh, it's the Browns. The Dallas Cowboys should win by 30," and almost inevitably it would be a tight game. (Down memory lane: the Cowboys played the bad Buffalo Bills on MNF one night & Tony Romo threw five INTs . . . yet won the game in the last seconds---it was a great "game" and a terrible performance).

Anyway, I think this is the mindset the fake news media has been pushing us to all along: huge expectations of blowouts so they can then report on what a "disappointment" it was and how "close" it was and how the "DemoKKKrats can take satisfaction that, gee, they're really close."

Folks, our view must be to win is all that matters. By one point, by 50,000 votes, by 3 million. In November, if we have 226 seats, each won by a single vote, I'm thrilled. It does us no good to have 200 seats won in blowouts and lose 50 seats by razor-thin margins.

I think most of you would agree with that. Roy Moore left home 685,000 Republicans on election night. But we didn't need 685,000. We only needed 30,000 of them to hold a senate seat.

Now, as to the OH12 district itself: As some of you have already pointed out, the Rs got wise. They withheld a lot of Delaware (red) county's votes until all of Franklin (blue) had come in. Brilliant. This must be the strategy all over the US. (Note that this was what happened on election night 2016 in FL, MI, and PA. I don't recall how WI came in.

Second, it's obvious to anyone but the numbskull pus-bubbles on CNN that Trump literally carried Troy Balderson across the line kicking and screaming. I spoke with Richard Baris a lot yesterday, as well as with "OhioWan," my superb source in Ohio. They agreed that Balderson had seen a big (8-10 point) lead slip in the days prior to the election, and that Trump stopped the bleeding. FWIW, Baris also told me that in PA18, which we lost by 500 votes, Saccone was down six before Trump came in.

If candidates don't run arm-in-arm with Trump, EVEN IN RED DISTRICTS, they will be in trouble.

Third, and this is troubling: Ohio Wan told me that they were speaking with callers into the district who were telling the OH GOP that many of the Republicans they called in Licking, Franklin, and Delaware were not aware there was a special election taking place! (This was just prior to Trump's visit). I don't know how that's possible, but it does reinforce my position that especially on our side---but I think on both---there still is a lot of election fatigue.

The overall turnout was right at 200,000 on the low, low side of many pundits' predictions (some estimated it would be about 227,000).

Baris, @ABPatriotWriter Alex Bedhaze, and I all concur that high turnout in the Trump era HELPS Republicans, and it's important in November that the turnouts are higher.

Also, starting in the next couple of weeks, the OH GOP is sending mailers to all Republicans urging them to vote early, and to address concerns people have about voting early. The reason for this has to do with the GOP's research that shows that people voting early tend to vote more consistently the whole ticket/slate of candidates than people who vote in the booth. They find their down ticket races have much better results with a lot of early votes.

Now a word on AZ: I got word yesterday there is a major hitjob coming (I think in RollCall) on Kelli Ward's husband over "harassment" from a disgruntled staffer and a medical case brought years ago which resulted in a small judgment against him. I'm not going to go into details, but what the TIMING of this tells me is that the poll last week showing Kelli down about six or seven to McSally is deeply troubling to the Swamp and to McSally.

I'm certain this is a Swamp hit specifically because Ward has been strongly eating into Joe Arpaio's numbers. A few months ago, he was at 24% and even second in a poll. Now he's a distant third, at 15%, while Ward has jumped six points. Clearly she is pulling in the Joe voters who realize he can't win, and to vote for Joe is to nominate McSally. Ward's new ad "mentioning" (I would not say "attacking") Joe is very respectful and "nice," but says a senator needs to address all issues. Good ad.

Right now, AZ has about a 260,000 R advantage, but I expect that will grow by 3,000 or more in three weeks when the new registration numbers appear from the Secretary of State. We know about "red" and "blue" as I just said, but in theory, no Republican should lose an AZ senate seat. I think either Ward or McSally can beat Enema for different reasons (Ward will turn out more conservatives, McSally will turn out more indies). But what this new RollCall hit tells me is that the Swamp now is seriously concerned about Ward.

Thanks for reminding us that a win is a win, regardless of the margin. The endless comparisons to general elections, or presidential elections gets mighty tiresome.

This time in August is a bad time for Republicans to get out and vote. Most of them are on vacation sitting back in some resort, sipping a margarita next to a cooling pool. I wonder if the Dems do that?

“If Republicans always compromise Democrats always win.”

That is exactly wrong. Only through compromise is it possible to win a majority. Without compromise, we’d each be a party of one.

Everyone that voted for Donald Trump shared the common goal of wanting to put America First and MAGA. But do you think all
Trump supporters agree 100% on abortion, unions, tariffs, deregulation, same sex marriage? Of course not.

Try forming a club and demanding that all members strictly agree with you on every issue - see how many people will join your club. To get people to join, you need to put aside differences, compromise. To get 50% of the people to join your club - believe me, you are going to have to make compromises.

Clap, clap, clap.

Love reading your interpretations of what is happening in the real world.

Thank you.

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