Posted on 08/08/2018 6:56:21 AM PDT by LS
No matter what else you hear or read, keep this in mind: for the next three months Troy Balderson (R) will be voting in the US House, not a fruitball DemoKKKrat.
It's time we all readjust our thinking. There is too much analysis of how "red" or "blue" districts are, and, I think, a little too much expectation of a blowout because a district has a lot of Republicans.
While I don't watch the NFL anymore, this is akin to those games on the schedule where you used to say, "Oh, it's the Browns. The Dallas Cowboys should win by 30," and almost inevitably it would be a tight game. (Down memory lane: the Cowboys played the bad Buffalo Bills on MNF one night & Tony Romo threw five INTs . . . yet won the game in the last seconds---it was a great "game" and a terrible performance).
Anyway, I think this is the mindset the fake news media has been pushing us to all along: huge expectations of blowouts so they can then report on what a "disappointment" it was and how "close" it was and how the "DemoKKKrats can take satisfaction that, gee, they're really close."
Folks, our view must be to win is all that matters. By one point, by 50,000 votes, by 3 million. In November, if we have 226 seats, each won by a single vote, I'm thrilled. It does us no good to have 200 seats won in blowouts and lose 50 seats by razor-thin margins.
I think most of you would agree with that. Roy Moore left home 685,000 Republicans on election night. But we didn't need 685,000. We only needed 30,000 of them to hold a senate seat.
Now, as to the OH12 district itself: As some of you have already pointed out, the Rs got wise. They withheld a lot of Delaware (red) county's votes until all of Franklin (blue) had come in. Brilliant. This must be the strategy all over the US. (Note that this was what happened on election night 2016 in FL, MI, and PA. I don't recall how WI came in.
Second, it's obvious to anyone but the numbskull pus-bubbles on CNN that Trump literally carried Troy Balderson across the line kicking and screaming. I spoke with Richard Baris a lot yesterday, as well as with "OhioWan," my superb source in Ohio. They agreed that Balderson had seen a big (8-10 point) lead slip in the days prior to the election, and that Trump stopped the bleeding. FWIW, Baris also told me that in PA18, which we lost by 500 votes, Saccone was down six before Trump came in.
If candidates don't run arm-in-arm with Trump, EVEN IN RED DISTRICTS, they will be in trouble.
Third, and this is troubling: Ohio Wan told me that they were speaking with callers into the district who were telling the OH GOP that many of the Republicans they called in Licking, Franklin, and Delaware were not aware there was a special election taking place! (This was just prior to Trump's visit). I don't know how that's possible, but it does reinforce my position that especially on our side---but I think on both---there still is a lot of election fatigue.
The overall turnout was right at 200,000 on the low, low side of many pundits' predictions (some estimated it would be about 227,000).
Baris, @ABPatriotWriter Alex Bedhaze, and I all concur that high turnout in the Trump era HELPS Republicans, and it's important in November that the turnouts are higher.
Also, starting in the next couple of weeks, the OH GOP is sending mailers to all Republicans urging them to vote early, and to address concerns people have about voting early. The reason for this has to do with the GOP's research that shows that people voting early tend to vote more consistently the whole ticket/slate of candidates than people who vote in the booth. They find their down ticket races have much better results with a lot of early votes.
So, a good result. "Any airplane landing you walk away from is a good landing."
Now a word on AZ: I got word yesterday there is a major hitjob coming (I think in RollCall) on Kelli Ward's husband over "harassment" from a disgruntled staffer and a medical case brought years ago which resulted in a small judgment against him. I'm not going to go into details, but what the TIMING of this tells me is that the poll last week showing Kelli down about six or seven to McSally is deeply troubling to the Swamp and to McSally.
I'm certain this is a Swamp hit specifically because Ward has been strongly eating into Joe Arpaio's numbers. A few months ago, he was at 24% and even second in a poll. Now he's a distant third, at 15%, while Ward has jumped six points. Clearly she is pulling in the Joe voters who realize he can't win, and to vote for Joe is to nominate McSally. Ward's new ad "mentioning" (I would not say "attacking") Joe is very respectful and "nice," but says a senator needs to address all issues. Good ad.
Right now, AZ has about a 260,000 R advantage, but I expect that will grow by 3,000 or more in three weeks when the new registration numbers appear from the Secretary of State. We know about "red" and "blue" as I just said, but in theory, no Republican should lose an AZ senate seat. I think either Ward or McSally can beat Enema for different reasons (Ward will turn out more conservatives, McSally will turn out more indies). But what this new RollCall hit tells me is that the Swamp now is seriously concerned about Ward.
Larry, who can convince Arpaio to drop out?
He would be 92 if he lives to finish the Senate term he is running for.
This is insanity.
Otherwise, McSally, who is McCain in a skirt, will win and AZ will not gain a pro-Trump Senator that it could easily do right now.
Consider also that this was a special election and democrats were able to concentrate all their efforts on this one election. Come November there will be many democratic candidates and democrats will have to spread out their efforts and their ground game. They will not be able to apply the same concentrated effort as in this special election.
Republicans are notoriously lazy in special election turnout, and we are lucky that Trump was able to carry Balderson across the finish line. I do think he wins handily in November, but we can’t be this complacent.
On a good note, turnout in MO was good in the R primary for Senate. I voted for Pedersen in the primary because he actually advocates for the 2A better than Josh Hawley. That said, Hawley is something of a hero for representing hobby lobby and winning in SCOTUS against the ACA. I think his chances of beating McCaskill are good.
Mc Sally is a retired Air Force Colonel and a real Patriot. I expect Trump to endorse her before the primary.
It was close in OH because many didn’t even know about the election plus they are going to vote again for the same seat again in 2 months...Plus August is prime vacation time as well.
I understand the RNC spent millions on the race. Which also means the story about how lots of people didn’t know there was an election is dubious.
Somebody who can pay off his legal debts.
” (Note that this was what happened on election night 2016 in FL, “
No. Panhandle in different time zone.
But it was all over when Miami-date reported ...
Why is very high Dem enthusiasm not a possibility?
“Ya never knocked me down, Ray.” — Jake LaMotta, to Sugar Ray Robinson, who had just beat the living tar out of him, in “Raging Bull”
There are over 577,000 registered voters in Ohio’s 12th District, so having less than half turn out showed a lethargic group of GOP voters who didn’t care enough to vote. Did they really believe that the Democrat wouldn’t vote with Pelosi? Ever see Lucy and Charlie Brown play football?
The RATs have reached 'Max Turnout'; GOP will have larger turnout in November ...
I’m reminded of the old joke about Pravda covering a race between the USSR’s fastest car and the USA’s fastest car. The results of the race were that the American car won, and the Soviet car came in second, but Pravda reports it as the Soviet car finishes second and the American car finishes next to last.
Lol. Like the RNC?
Excellent point !!!
The Dems didn't have 90% turnout. They had 90% of their 2016 total. Not the same thing.
Yep.
That’s a good one! Have to remember that.
Ronald Reagan: “Socialism only works in two places: Heaven, where it doesn’t have to, and Hell, where they already have it.”
Right.
I keep repeating, there is such a thing as election fatigue. “Normal” people with jobs, churches, families, vacations, etc, just don’t want to “do politics” 24/7.
Awesome! Fake news was out.
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