Posted on 07/25/2018 8:19:15 PM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
Just a few months ago Democrats envisioned a Blue Wave, gaining 40-50 seats. Today their expectation have been tempered and for good reason. Since 1946, Democrats have gained an average of 21 seats in the midterms when the president is a Republican. That gain would not be enough for a majority, where the Democrats need to gain 25 seats.
Using election data since 1946, on average the presidents party (Republican or Democratic) loses 21 seats in the first midterm election. But that average masks big swings, from a 63-seat loss in 2010 to an 8-seat gain in 2002. The median loss is just 15 seats. The current partisan makeup is 236-193 with 6 vacancies. RealClearPolitics puts Republicans as favorites in 202 seats, Democrats in 199 seats with 24 tossups.
One thing is for certain, the presidents party struggles in midterm elections because thats how politics works. Presidents get elected by making a lot of promises to get elected. The result? The presidents voters can never be fully satisfied less than two years into a given presidency. Some of those voters drop out, while the opposition becomes united, not in policy preferences, but just in opposition to the president they didnt vote for.
Both current polling and the historic data point to a very close result on Election Day. The biggest Democratic seat gain since the 1974 Watergate election (+48 seats) was the 2006 Iraq War election. With Trump polling at higher popularity than Bush in 2006, it seems likely that the Democrats will not surpass their 31-seat gain. That leaves very little margin for error to obtain a majority.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
I’ve never seen a generic poll ever have the Republican’s leading even when they wind up picking up seats.
My prediction is gains of 6-12 Senate seats for the Republicans and, 12-20 Seat gains in the House. GOP keeps majorities in both the Senate & House. Democrat Party is in full self-destruct mode!!!
The only problem is the DNC Media.
While people like us pay attention, the majority of People in this Country just listen to the traitorous DNC Media to find out what’s happening in the world.
It isn’t just how they bash the President, it’s how none of his accomplishments, and even those of (our RINO) Republican Politicians are ever discussed.
If Obama were still POTUS, every positive Economic Report would be trumpeted and every Foreign Policy victory would be treated as the act of a once in a lifetime Statesman.
It isn’t just what the Media Reports, it’s what they purposely ignore, and we all know it’s just part of their Seditionist Agenda.
These pollsters have no more chance of determining actual future voters in a mid-term election than they have of winning Powerball.
Garbage in, garbage out.
Turnout is most of what matters in mid-terms.
Which Democrats are in danger of losing? Which open seats will GOP pick up?
Which seats do you agree GOP will lose?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018#Latest_published_predictions_for_competitive_seats
bookmark
GDP results since Trump took office have been hyped high and turned out to be lower. I think it is probably done by numbers manipulation. In some cases the revised numbers are higher a month or so later. But there appears to be what I consider an odd pattern. High numbers get hyped by the various regional feds and the reality is a half point or more lower.
Based on that I’d guess tomorrow’s gdp number to be 3.75%
You’d be wrong.... We’ll see.
And a number of them are right here.......I'd imagine their yearbooks noted them as "Most likely to never be satisfied with anything"....
Who’s saying ? The dems ? Ha !
I hope I am, but I don’t trust the denizens of the swamp
I have seen some Battleground polls, which are supposed to be the best in the business of politics, or at least they used to be, show the GOP with generic leads.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.