Posted on 07/25/2018 5:02:46 AM PDT by buckalfa
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. — A political analysis organization changed its ratings of multiple congressional races Tuesday, including West Virginia’s U.S. Senate and 3rd Congressional District contests.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, part of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, changed its ratings of the two races from “toss up” to “leans Democrat,” which is good news for U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and state Sen. Richard Ojeda.
Manchin is running against Republican candidate and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey for his second full term in the Senate.
Ojeda, D-Logan, who caught the attention of national news organizations prior to and following the statewide education work stoppage, is facing off against Delegate Carol Miller, R-Cabell. The seat is open because of U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins’ failed bid for U.S. Senate.
Kyle Kondik, the managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said the Senate race went from “leans Democratic” to “toss-up” in May following the primary election.
“We’ve just seen a lot of polling where Manchin has usually been leading by high single digits or maybe low double digits,” he said. “Also, there was an interesting development recently where one of the big Republican outside groups actually canceled some ad spending in West Virginia, which I don’t know exactly what happened there, but sometimes actions speak louder than words in the political world.”
One Nation, an organization tied to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., announced last week it was canceling a $750,000 campaign against Manchin regarding immigration.
As for Ojeda, Kondik said national trends show a relationship between House races and a district’s approval of President Donald Trump. This bearing is not the case in the 3rd Congressional District.
“In the 2016 presidential race, Evan Jenkins got elected quite comfortably. The district voted for Donald Trump by almost 50 points,” he said. “And yet, Jim Justice — who then was a Democrat and now is a Republican — running for governor, won the district by 17 points.”
Kondik said the last time there was an open House race in West Virginia, Alex Mooney won in the 2nd Congressional District contest over Democrat Nick Casey by three points.
“I’m wondering if this race is going to be similar to that in that even though Democrats have really been on a decline in West Virginia, there is some residual strength there,” he said. “With the right candidate, they could potentially win that House seat.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball said Tuesday Democrats are the “soft favorites” to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in this year’s election. The Republican Party, at this point, is expected to retain control of the Senate.
Pooooor Sabato...off his Meds...again.
Keep in mind that this same guy predicted a convincing Hillary Victory in 2016. I'm surprised that he is still employed.
I figured that Manchin’s seat, while winnable, was going to be a tough race. But West Virginia 3rd? I’m not sure I’m willing to agree on that one.
Sabato, although I like him, was wrong in ‘16, just like everyone else. IMHO, that trend, being wrong, will continue. He needs to get some glass cleaner for that crystal ball.
Hopefully West Virginians have woken from their Democrat Planation stupor!!
I know nothing about this. However, I believe Sabato leans liberal.
I’m not real keen on Manchin’s opponent, and if Manchin votes for Kavanaugh I think it will seal his re-election, but on the other hand, if the race is close, look for Trump and Pence to weigh in.
Sabato said Clinton would beat Trump with 322 electoral votes.
Always check the demographics and methodology on any poll to see if it is reasonable
What’s wrong with his opponent?
Same idiot that forecasted/predicted a Hillary landslide......
I don’t know the man. I’m just going by appearance. I’m just surprised he’s so far behind.
Did not Sabato give Trump absolutely no chance against Crooked Hillary? Who gives a rat’s rear end what these windbags say?
If you refer to Morrissey, he just seems to be a wimpy campaigner and is viewed as a carpetbagger (yeah, there was Jay) from New Jersey while the Manchin family roots run deep in WV poltics. Although Morrissey is right on most issues, he just has not gained traction.
Sabato? Isn’t he Dick Moriss’ cousin? /s
This guy is a joke.
Yeah and Hill was going to be a landslide over Trump. LMAO
He’s been one of the more objective and accurate analysts and very fair to Trump.
You posted crap.
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