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I should add to my above post that of his “toss up” list,
*I contacted a very high source in the AZ GOP who said unequivocally, “We will win” McSally’s house seat;
*CA 49 (another “tossup”) in the latest poll was +3 for the R (while Issa only won by one).
*I spoke to a guy I call “Ohio Wan” who totally got 2016 in OH (possibly was a tad low) who said “No OH House R is in trouble. Rennacci is down 5-6 but only has 34% name recognition and a ton of money. We think this is very close right now.” I asked specifically about CD12 and about Chabot, both on Sabato’s “toss up” and Ohio Wan said “we’ll win both of those.”
*I hear from MN source that we can flip two D seats there red.
*While I can’t reveal the source, I can tell you the generic national polls showing Ds up by any more than 3-4 are wrong and they are still using basically “registered voters.” This model, I am told is massively off. As many as 60% of the poll respondents don’t vote. My source says the generic right now is a tossup/even and will totally be driven by voter enthusiasm, not numbers.
*I don’t do voter registrations for W VA, but similar states such as PA have seen massive DemoKKKrat voter registration crashes (-250,000 off the rolls for Ds in PA since 2012, 85k off since 2016 & Trump’s victory). I can’t do OH or VA because they don’t register by party, but we know OH is solid. So it seems highly unlikely that WV is bucking that trend.