Posted on 06/30/2018 7:57:14 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
For the past several years, political pundits on both sides of the aisle have been predicting a future with a permanent Democratic majority in the United States. As evidence, they point to increasing immigration of races that consistently vote over two to one for Democrats, and to the fact that young people overwhelmingly lean left. Republicans have won the popular vote only once in the past seven presidential elections, and Texas, the jewel in the Republican crown, is forecast to go blue in a decade or two because of its growing Hispanic population. These predictions have led to jubilation among Democrats and foreboding among Republicans.
So is the Republican party doomed? Not necessarily. A permanent Democratic future is preconditioned on all demographic groups continuing to vote for the two main parties at the same rates they do currently. I don't think this will be the case. Specifically, I believe that white voters will begin voting for Republicans in larger numbers than they do now. The reason why is simple: identity politics.
Since the 1960s, the white share of the Democratic vote has steadily been decreasing. Just over half of Hillary Clinton's votes in 2016 came from whites. The Democratic vote will probably be majority-nonwhite in the 2020 election and onward.
In the past, Democrats couldn't afford to alienate whites, because they couldn't win elections without either a majority or near majority of the white vote. Times have changed, and now they can. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton lost the white vote, but by small margins. Barack Obama lost the white vote by much larger margins – first by 12 points, then by 20. This shows that Democrats can now win elections without the white vote.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
"If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain" --Anselme Batbie
I don’t think the “white guilt” thing is working very well now.
Democrat victory is conditional upon their being able to deliver goodies to parasites.
“In my opinion the dems would be nuts to run anyone but a minority, at least for 2020. I don’t think a lot of dem white voters have all the racial guilt voted out of their system yet. Later on maybe that becomes a loser for them. Probably they would do much better with a male minority than a female minority, not sure male minorities turn out for a woman like they would for a man.”
good analysis. i’d add, however, that the Dems’ real problem is the party split that’s going to occur over whether to nominate an uber-leftist or an extreme leftist ... either way a big chunk of the members are going to be alienated and even more alienated members than in 2016 will react as follows: won’t vote at all, will vote 3rd party, or *gasp* will vote for Trump
under ordinary circumstances, Joe Biden would be their best bet by far in 2020: he’s avuncular, gentlemanly, well-spoken, not a bomb-thrower, non-threatening, comes off as reasonable, and doesn’t have all the negative baggage of a Hillary, and thus would appeal to a much boarder electorate than one of the Dems’ out-and-out kommie candidates ... but ol’ Joe probably wouldn’t bring out enough AA’s or loony leftists because of his whiteness nor would he appeal to the growing loony-left branch of the party.
bottom line, i suspect the Dems are screwed no matter what they do because they’ve too successfully fractured their own constituency via the constant promotion of virulent intolerance of others, indelible identity victimhood, overt racism, strident lunacy, and an overwhelming lurch to the left ...
Talking demographics , the black population has always been about 13%, and that non viable sub -group is supported since 1965 only by extorting money from taxpayers and transferring it to black mothers to ensure they keep having children.
So whites started out at a max of 87%, and after factoring out for Asians and others maybe 80% at the most.
Just like Merkel is determined to destroy the German population, her fellow travelers in the US are engaged in the same action.
They are apoplectic that they have been exposed, and are still pretty successful in keeping most Americans in the dark about what they are up to.
“As the Democrat Party becomes dominated by radical black and Hispanic leftists, the GOP will have a great opportunity to attract support from all kinds of Asian immigrants who despise lazy bums and are coldly pragmatic about their politics.”
and that SHOULD attract Jewish support as well ...
and Texas, the jewel in the Republican crown, is forecast to go blue in a decade or two because of its growing Hispanic population.””
I lived in Texas a few decades ago. One would think they would be smarter than to let this happen again.
Not unless there is a Republican to follow Trump who will continue his policies. If the GOPe gets back in charge after Trump is out of office, it'll probably be the Republicans who are done.
Not unless there is a Republican to follow Trump who will continue his policies. If the GOPe gets back in charge after Trump is out of office, it'll probably be the Republicans who are done.
Agreed.
You make very good points.
The Marxist Mexican who will likely be elected president of Mexico tomorrow will wake up many people. He is going to do for the Wall what Obama did for gun sales.
Democrat victory is conditional upon their being able to deliver goodies to parasites.
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That’s true. But I think many of the parasites are realizing that the more parasites there are, the fewer goodies they are going to receive.
“Doesn’t sound like a party in trouble, to me.”
But the GOP is in trouble on promise keeping! Beyond his gift of a Conservative SCOTUS, his second lasting gift will be to drive the GOPE out of the GOP. And I’d love it if he were to find some way to prosecute the COCK Bros. and put the old bastards in jail!
Black women are more likely to be a government employee or on a government program than any other group of people in this country. They vote for their best interest, and that means the socialist.
Yes I totally agree. If he wins he will be very open about invading the US and clear the way for us to use the Military Option.
I think we need the Military at the border until we have a wall either virtual or physical or both.
The only thing which allows the underclass to have a high birth rate, is welfare. If there was no welfare, and an underclass girl was faced with the requirement to support her kids herself, through her own work, how many would she have?
Meanwhile, high taxes (to support the welfare state) makes having a large family (which would require the wife to have less of a presence in the work force) to be unaffordable.
Change these factors, and the respective birth rates will change.
Nothing. Demographics have little if anything to do with political alignment over the long haul. There’s a natural ebb and flow to politics. The parties change their alignment over a very long cycle, the people change their alignment over a fairly short cycle, there are no permanent majorities.
These predictions assume that birth rates in the minority community will remain as high as they have been, which is not necessarily the case. The black birth rate has fallen dramatically and is essentially the same as the white rate. The Hispanic birth rate is beginning to follow the same trajectory. Extrapolation is not measurement.
Everyone is assuming that the country will stay united. I see the breakup of the states into several countries along ideology happening sometime in the near future. Demographics will reflect how the country divides.
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