Posted on 06/22/2018 3:18:49 PM PDT by yesthatjallen
A panel of pollsters is predicting that Democrats will win back 23 seats in this year’s midterm elections, enough to win back the house majority.
Hill.TV’s “What America’s Thinking” canvassed its panel of pollsters on how many seats Democrats will gain.
The average answer for the first-ever Poll of Pollsters was 23 seats, the show announced Friday.
That’s exactly the number that Democrats need to flip control of the chamber from Republicans. (What a coincidence)
“I feel like if 2016 taught us nothing, it is we should not make predictions. So I’m doing this under duress I’ll have you know,” joked pollster Anna Greenberg, who predicted Democrats would gain 25 seats.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group predicted it was a “better than even chance” that Democrats reclaim control of the House for the first time in eight years.
He predicted Democrats would net 23 seats.
Carly Cooperman, a partner at Schoen Consulting and a Democratic pollster, predicted a gain of 24 seats. “We see the generic vote is in the Democratic favor and a lot of the competitive seats are held by Republicans,” she said.
Former Clinton pollster Mark Penn predicted a gain of 28 seats for Democrats.
The Poll of Pollsters is an unscientific survey. It canvasses about two-dozen top pollsters in the country on a question of public interest and then averages the total of the answers.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
The 50 seat mantra is actually a bald faced lie from the left. It goes unchallenged, and it takes on a life of it’s own.
Ballotpedia actually catalogues all of the net changes from the State legislative special elections.
President Trump took Office in January 2017. So let’s look at how many seats actually flipped in 2017 and 2018.
https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2017
In total, 17 state legislative seats flipped party control in 2017. Democrats flipped 14 seats and Republicans flipped three seats as a result of special state legislative elections in 2017.
14-3 = 11 net change toward the Democrats.
https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2018
In 2018, as of June, 11 seats flipped as a result of state legislative special elections. Ten seats flipped from Republican control to Democratic control. One seat flipped from Democratic control to Republican control.
10-1 = 9 Net change toward the Democrats.
If we take the 11 net change in 2017 and the 9 net change in 2018, we get 20.
20 doesn’t add up to “41” or “nearly 50” despite how much the media screams it to be so.
44 is as much of a lie as 50.
Ballotpedia actually catalogues all of the net changes from the State legislative special elections.
President Trump took Office in January 2017. So let’s look at how many seats actually flipped in 2017 and 2018.
https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2017
In total, 17 state legislative seats flipped party control in 2017. Democrats flipped 14 seats and Republicans flipped three seats as a result of special state legislative elections in 2017.
14-3 = 11 net change toward the Democrats.
https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2018
In 2018, as of June, 11 seats flipped as a result of state legislative special elections. Ten seats flipped from Republican control to Democratic control. One seat flipped from Democratic control to Republican control.
10-1 = 9 Net change toward the Democrats.
If we take the 11 net change in 2017 and the 9 net change in 2018, we get 20.
20 doesn’t add up to “41” or “nearly 50” despite how much the media screams it to be so.
Is this the same group who said that Clinton had a 96 percent chance of winning?
Meaningless nonsense.
Why do you keep parroting Vox and the media shills?
There was no State legislative special election in Florida on Tuesday.
Here is the ENTIRE list of Florida State legislative special elections that were called in 2018.
Senate special elections called:
District 31: April 10
House special elections called:
District 72: February 13
District 39: May 1
District 114: May 1
The only election on Tuesday was the Special Run-Off Election for Miami-Dade County Commissioner, District 5.
If you have to count COUNTY COMMISSION seats to get to 44 to push your narrative, you are pretty desperate.
Most of them are State seats, and having nothing to with the national elections.
Even then, it’s 20. Not 44 or 50.
Don’t take my word for it. Check Ballotpedia. They catalogue every single race.
Looking at what Naps just posted, I think the Vox cartel is actually county city and county commissions to get to 44. Even then, I think they are ignoring the seats that the GOP flipped as well.
The media is desperate to create a narrative, and too many people actually believe the stuff that they spout.
Any media story should be looked at from the assumption that it is a lie. When they say “44 seats have flipped” someone needs to check behind them.
I just did.
44 magically turns to 20 when you look closely.
According to Peter Strozk and his whore Lisa Page, Hillary will win in a landslide 100,000,000-0.
Yeah. They've figured out all of their math errors from 2016. Riiiiiigggggghhhhhhht.
In other news, pollsters unanimously predicted Hillary Clinton would be elected President.
Trump had no viable path to the presidency.
Yeah, that “100,000,000-0 chance” line from their texts shows the “intellect” of those morons. I know 6 yr olds that are more mature than that. And there’s the problem with all of these TDS types.
Wishful thinking.
They also predicted Hillary would win the election and we know how that turned out.
In their “wet dreams”.
Another one in a super red district? The ONLY hope there is that Democrats are just paying more attention this time of year and are more motivated to go vote, but I have my doubts.
Yes. I believe the propaganda arm (called “news media”) IS a factor in Dem victories.
Along with prayer, we MUST stop this takeover from happening.
They have non-citizens (!!) voting all over America, not just California.
They have black precincts with more Dem votes than total people there (134% Dem vote in one Detroit precinct).
We must get fired up and win or Trump will be cut off by a Dem run House at every turn (before the little judges even block him like now).
Along with dreary impeachment proceedings on TV every day.
Dem a-holes are fired up zealots. We have to be , too.
Good for hot stove league reminiscence but today there may be a chance that alien non-citizen voters and vote machine fraud and apathy by GOP or even a wedge between Trump and us over the caving on aliens and the Wall may hurt Trump and his supporters hold the House.
Get out and vote and demand vote fraud and non-citizen voting stop. See my tagline, of course, as always.
I can believe it.
Repubs in congress have done nothing to earn the vote of the voters (other than the Tax Cuts which is already down the memory hole).
Most people will be brainwashed with the 24/7 Trump hatred “news” cycle.
I just hope Trump will just take out and keep out his Veto pen for the next two years ... at least.
Take out CA & NY and what do you get in the poll?
It’s difficult. I feel like we have no way to gauge Trump support right now. I see people who voted for him say they now regret it sometimes on Twitter and R/Trumpgrets. I have no idea of knowing what percent of people who voted for Trump still agree with their vote, and I think that would be a good stat to know. Who knows what will happen between now and November? The child separation policy was not helpful for the White House, and the support for it was underwater even in states like Texas.
There was no State legislative election in Florida on Tuesday.
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