Iran's President Hassan Rouhani, Russia's Vladimir Putin and Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan meet in Sochi, Russia November 22, 2017. (photo credit: SPUTNIK/MIKHAIL METZEL/KREMLIN VIA REUTERS) The Three Amigos
Posted on 06/21/2018 1:11:19 PM PDT by Texas Fossil
Syria's Alawite community have been a key source of support for the regime. But even they could turn on him.
BEIRUT—Since Syrian regime forces were accused of conducting a chemical-weapons attack on Saturday on Douma, the largest rebel town near Damascus to surrender, the world has waited anxiously for the U.S. response. In the aftermath of the suspected attack, President Donald Trump spoke of imminent retaliation and had tough words for Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria, and his patron Russia; he has since hedged to say an attack could come “very soon or not so soon at all!” Still, the last time such a large-scale chemical attack was suspected in Syria, Trump followed through on his threats, albeit with a limited response.
Given the potentially greater consequences Assad and his allies could face, it’s unclear why he would risk using chemical weapons, especially when his regime had already declared victory in its Russia-backed assault on Eastern Ghouta, the last major rebel-held area near Damascus, which also encompasses Douma. Numerous theories have been offered, including Assad’s need to further terrorize his population into submission, as well as desire to dare and humiliate West.
One crucial and largely overlooked explanation is the pressure he has faced from the Alawites, members of the minority Shiite-linked sect to which the Assads belong. Many Alawites believe Douma’s main insurgent group Jaysh al-Islam, or the Army of Islam, has been holding up to 7,500 Alawite prisoners in and around the city—including army generals, soldiers, and civilians—kidnapped or taken captive by rebels over the years to try to extract concessions from the regime. Though the Alawites represent a small proportion of the country overall, they hold key regime positions, dominate the police, and supply the main fighting forces who have been defending the regime since 2011.
(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...
Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad, before him, both were capable of extreme brutality. Bashar Assad had to sign off on the trade/takeover of Afrin by Turkey. Was the call his or Russia's? Unclear.
The number of Alawites was always small in comparison to the size of Syria. But most of the leadership of the SAA were Alawites. They took huge casualties.
Now, can he be trusted to make a peace with the Kurds and the SDF? There is no clear answer.
So the US is setting in place as ISIS is finally eliminated in the Eastern Part of Syria. Best outcome? A negotiated peace with US and Russian interests assuring the transition.
This article does credibly describe the conflict from the view of those near Damascus.
Related article:
Assad’s bluff may double as a gain for Syria’s Kurds
https://thedefensepost.com/2018/06/21/assad-bluff-syria-kurds-opinion/
This article is 3 months old and since that time the two “canisters’ that had chlorine in them were NOT attributed to Syria by the UN inspectors. So this article is refuted in it’s basic premise. All chemical agents used in the war were of ISIS origin. Why do we hear these old lies? What is the real motivation for this? I think it is to rip sovereign land away from the Syrian people and give it to the Kurds and confiscate property and wealth of the Syrian people after lies and demonization of the Assad elected government. Of course, it will not work. Assad /Russia/ and Hezbollah a have successfully destroyed ISIS and the caliphate. We played a minuscule role because we were not invited.
Why would Assad have used chemical weapons again?
Simply because they work.
That is what shook loose the large group of jihadis in Eastern Ghouta just like a month ago, that were re-located to Afrin: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/08/syrian-government-accused-of-chemical-attacks-on-civilians-in-eastern-ghouta
Yes, I agree. He was desperate to end them. He had used them before. When we bombed the bases the intelligence was correct, they were chem weapons sites.
I think Assad signed off on Afrin, himself. Whether Putin wanted it or not? I’m not sure.
Humpty Dumpty has fallen, they may be able to put him back together but he will never be the same.
Now lets see what happens on the 24th in Turkey.
Nonsense.
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani, Russia's Vladimir Putin and Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan meet in Sochi, Russia November 22, 2017. (photo credit: SPUTNIK/MIKHAIL METZEL/KREMLIN VIA REUTERS) The Three Amigos
They have a pulse, so they haven't given up everything -- yet. And Assad doesn't care what it costs them.
“I think Assad signed off on Afrin, himself. Whether Putin wanted it or not? I’m not sure.”
The Russians operated the air defense systems. Putin had to agree for Turkey to enter Afrin.
The consequences in Afrin were war crimes. No dodging that.
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