Gallup: Trump's first-year job approval 10 points lower than any predecessor

The Hill ^ | 1-22-18 | Rebecca Savransky

[Angels27]

President Trump's first-year average job approval rating was at least 10 percentage points lower than that of any of his predecessors, according to Gallup.

Trump's job approval rating during his first year in office averaged 38.4 percent, Gallup reported. By comparison, President Obama's first-year average approval rating was 57.2 percent.

The only other president to average below 50 percent in his first-year job approval rating was President Clinton, whose average was 49.3 percent, Gallup reported. Six out of the 10 men who have been elected president since World War II have had a job approval rating averaging at 60 percent or higher during their first year in office.

Trump's average job approval rating during his first year also falls within the top 10 worst average job approval ratings for any president since Gallup started regularly recording the measurement in 1945.

[kearnyirish2]

Really; why don’t they just say his disapproval rating is 98%? The same people will believe it, and the same people will dismiss it as fake news. Nobody cares what they say anymore; patriots know they are liars and the Bolsheviks blame them for not installing Queen Hillary on the throne...

[dr_lew]

Nobody asked me! I can tell you that.

[libh8er]

Right. I forgot. So they are now doing ‘safe’ polling where they can’t be proven right or wrong.

[DoodleBob]

Gallup has historically been more positive about Obama vs other polls, notably Rasmussen.

Furthermore, Rasmussen actually provides the raw time series of their polling results for Trump and Obama. So what does the less-biased Rasmussen polling data tell us about Obama and Trump's first years?

-Obama's average Approval Rating for his first year was 52%
-Trump's average Approval Rating for his first year was 45%

HOWEVER....

-Obama's daily polling numbers had more fluctuation vs Trump, with a standard deviation of 4.97%.
-Trump's daily polling numbers had LESS fluctuation vs Obama, with a standard deviation of 3.79%.

Because the yearly averages are relatively close, and because Obama's daily numbers fluctuated much more than Trump's, it is possible that statistically the averages are the same.

We can perform a T-Test on these numbers For the geeks amongst us, I used this formula:

In this case, t comes out to 0.011.

In simple terms, this means that:

-Obama's Average Approval Rating under Rasmussen was about 7 percentage points higher than that for Trump, but
-The higher variation in Obama's Approval Rating vs that for Trump means the averages are statistically equal.

There are also two, other notable item in the Rasmussen data.

-On the Day of Obama's Inauguration, he had an Approval Rating of 67%; one year later, that number stood at 48%...a decline of 28 percent.
-On the Day of Trump's Inauguration, he had an Approval Rating of 56%; one year later (on Jan 19 - Rasmussen stopped polling on weekends), that number stood at 45%...a smaller fall - of only 20 percent.
-Even if we take Trump's approval rating from Jan 22, 2018 of 42%, the decline from Inauguration Day would be 25%.

Finally, Obama's one year later Approval Rate of 48% is pretty darn close to Trump's of 45%, especially considering the bashing Trump's taken from the MSM vs the slobbering Obama received.

Sorry Gallup, but you lose. Good day, sir.

[AndyTheBear]

Indeed, and even their “daily job approval” tracking got downgraded to a weekly basis and the sample size got lowered—seemingly to save money—just this month!

http://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/224801/changes-presidential-job-approval-tracking-reporting.aspx

[R_Kangel]

"Gallup: Trump's first-year job approval 10 points lower than any predecessor..."

..... Yet he still accomplished more to help this country than almost any other President in modern times. The approval ratings are mostly due to the extreme Marxist and Never Trump propaganda coming from detractors. Any other President would at least be given a chance ..... But in this case ... It has been previously determined by our verbal vomit media that they will NEVER give him a chance ... Because ... Weeellll ... He's Trump.....

[Mark]

I’m pretty sure that The Soros Survey puts him down to 100% disapproval.

[DAC21]

In other news Hillary Clinton wins Presidency in a land slide.

[Tammy8]

Nope, didn’t ask me either.

[Maris Crane]

Talk to some real people like the ones in PA and OH and you will see that your phony numbers can only be seen as a way to fight President Trump’s agenda.

You, media, have tried everything else with miserable results, give it up. Pres is going to succeed just has he has succeeded in so many ways in the past wonderful year.

[apocalypto]

Polls can be easily manipulated. Polls can also be wrong. I don’t really care about this poll.

[cranked]

Gallop polls still have validity and merit?

I call BS on the poll.

[jonno]

I wonder why...hmmm...is there something different about this president?

[Pollster1]

There’s nothing wrong with being a poll watcher - I’m a big fan of good polling. Honest polls can provide an enormous amount of information. Even dishonest polls tell you what the liars behind them want you to believe and how desperate they are to influence your beliefs.

[Mechanicos]

There are no honest public polls. They all are propaganda now. Conservatives don’t trust liberal pollsters and refuse to talk to them.

[Pollster1]

There are no honest public polls. They all are propaganda now. Conservatives don’t trust liberal pollsters and refuse to talk to them.

Actually, there are honest polls, although most of the good ones are not public. The ones we hear reported are, as you say, propaganda now. You cannot even look at trends because those are too sensitive to the low and variable response rates. Getting around the conservative reluctance to talk with pollsters is one of the biggest challenges in my (former) profession. It can be done, but it costs a lot, and the honest polls tend to be closely-held because of their cost.

[Fido969]

“Do you approve of President Trump?”

“Yes! Absolutely! He’s doing a great job!”

“Uh, sorry I didn’t get that. We’ve got a bad connection.”

CLICK