Posted on 01/17/2018 12:49:53 PM PST by SeekAndFind
“Who cares about a state election in Wisconsin?” you ask. Ah, well, Scott Walker does. He’s running for a third term as governor this year and the current he’s rowing against is getting stronger. A lot of data nerds, eyeing the trend in last night’s results in special elections in Wisconsin and elsewhere, care. And if something doesn’t happen to stop the Democrats’ momentum, we’re all going to care in November.
Romney lost Wisconsin in 2012 but took Wisconsin’s 10th Senate District from Obama. Trump won the state narrowly in 2016 but crushed Hillary in the 10th. The last Republican to run for state senate there, a longtime incumbent, breezed to victory with 63.2 percent of the vote.
Last night? Democrats by 11.
Walker’s message to Wisconsin Republicans: MISSILE INBOUND. THIS IS NOT A DRILL.
Senate District 10 special election win by a Democrat is a wake up call for Republicans in Wisconsin.
— Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) January 17, 2018
Biggest takeaway from last night: We can’t presume that everyone knows about the positive things we’re getting done for the people of Wisconsin!
— Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) January 17, 2018
Nationwide, notes Dave Weigel, Democrats have picked up 34 legislative seats during the 2018 to, uh, four for the GOP. Remember the scene in “Ghostbusters” where the EPA dork shuts off the grid and Venkman et al. start to inch away from the machine and out of the room, knowing the destruction that’s about to be unleashed? That’s what election analysts were doing last night looking at the results in Wisconsin vis-a-vis the midterms:
Here is a breakdown of Democrats' over performance tonight in all 4 contested special elections:
SC #HD99: D+13.08%
WI #AD58: D+24.90%
WI #SD10: D+27.52%
IA #HD06: D+20.44%That is an average Dem over performance tonight of D+21.49%
That's… significant.
— Aaron Booth (@ActorAaronBooth) January 17, 2018
Four close House special elections was a wake-up call. This is a five alarm fire. https://t.co/AsW92O9j6y
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) January 17, 2018
Without an unpopular opponent for Trump, Trump's GOP's finding his unpopularity is crushing them electorally. Tonight's results on their own don't mean much, but, in context of 80+ state & federal legislative special elections, they're merely the latest sign GOP's in BIG trouble
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) January 17, 2018
*checks in on the special elections tonight* pic.twitter.com/kRyMVT0M0I
— Brandon Finnigan (@B_M_Finnigan) January 17, 2018
Can anything turn the tide — or at least slow it down a little? Well … maybe. The Times has some rare good polling news for the GOP today, finding a sharp uptick in approval for the new tax bill now that extra money’s beginning to show up in people’s paychecks.
The tax overhaul that Mr. Trump signed into law just before Christmas remains relatively unpopular and highly polarizing, according to a new poll conducted for The New York Times by SurveyMonkey. But support for the law has grown significantly over the past month, and more Americans believe that they will receive a tax cut. Forty-six percent of Americans strongly or somewhat approved of the law in early January, up from 37 percent when the bill was nearing passage in December.
At the same time, falling unemployment, accelerating economic growth and a surging stock market have made Americans increasingly positive about both their own finances and the overall economy. That could be good news for Republicans hoping to overcome Mr. Trump’s unpopularity in the midterm elections.
Michael Moran, a recently retired business executive in Georgia, said the economy in his town an hour north of Atlanta was “red hot.” The job market is so tight, he said, that he can’t even find an electrical contractor to perform repairs on his house.
The Dow has shot the moon, the economy’s booming, companies are paying tax-cut-inspired bonuses, and even blue-collar Americans are seeing more dough. In theory that’s a wave-buster. In theory. But last night’s results are what they are. God help the GOP if economic indicators, their one real breakwall in November, begin to disintegrate. Not even the Senate might be safe.
Is this a case of unusually heavy Dem turnout, or unusually low Rep turnout? Is there any evidence that Reps changed sides?
Why the low turnout? Any theories?
Take a look at these Democrats in Ohio that CNN showed this morning...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDfBbtCHL10
I’m surprised CNN would air this.
Just too uninformed, I would imagine.
The bottom line is that nonstop negative propaganda works. It kept the “captive nations” of the world in thrall to Communism for a long, long time. Sure, some people got over the wall. But most did not try.
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THIS!
Perhaps the data nerds will note that only 12% of registered Republicans turned out to vote.
Self-inflicted.
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Self Inflicted BY THE GOP-E though. We have people like Graham, Flake etc attacking POTUS and others working within the party to protect the establishment and Clinton with this Russian collusion dossier, and to work against the POTUS on policy.
Why WOULD we vote for these jackasses?
Media hysteria 24/7 has stoked the Dems.
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And depresses our side along with the GOP establishment working AGAINST POTUS.
Democrats can ALWAYS overperform. They cheat. The GOP DOES need to get out the vote. BUT, ENOUGH OF THE HYSTERIA PLEASE!
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More Never Trumper garbage from Gope Globalist Allahidiot .
This fraud and his Never Trump blog are not a crediable source.
This Bushbot is a liar .
Lack of Republicans getting out to vote despite all the advertising.
Could it be a combination of voter fraud and Republicans not showing up to vote?
What will be done about it?
Did the Republican candidate campaign heavily and speak out for votes against the Obama era/democrat?
The GOP sticking their middle finger up to their own base is a very serious problem. They have revealed themselves to be total frauds.
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This is all that needs to be said...period.
They’re doing it intentionally as well. They are safe in their district and will have their salary and power regardless. Might as well work against Trump and sabotage the majority to take him down.
oh really his approval rating was 45% just 8 days ago.
Agreed. A lot of people are staying home because of this.
I think it’s Pubbie voters in safely red areas being in snooze mode. That’s what happened here in AL. Everyone knew Moore was a lock. He was such a lock that you could safely stay home if you found him unsavory, or if you just had other things to do than think about a special election. No one knew how fired up and organized the Democrats were going to be. There was a freight train coming but nobody was paying attention and we got run over. I would suggest that awareness and fear of Democrat enthusiasm is what’s needed about now.
And that “35% approval” is what all the idiots at mediaite spew.
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Yep first thing I see on twitter or in comment sections of news blogs from Trump haters.
Bet establisment RINOs must have served a reel booger to insure the flip. Lots of em in the farm system.
EVERY hourly NPR or AP news update has an attack, pure lies and out right slander on President Trump. It is sickening. What is worse is that most Americans have minds of mush with a lack of critical thinking skills.
Yeah but look at Alabama. Moore wasn’t a GOPe jackass. He was a solid pro-Trump conservative. Granted he was tarnished by the last minute smears but I have a feeling that even those who were squeamish about him would have come out and voted for him if they thought the risk of the Democrat getting elected were real. I think there is a grave lack of awareness of risk on our side right now, at least in the normally safely red areas. I almost wonder if the less overwhelmingly red areas might not be safer because they’re more on guard.
We're doomed. DOOOOOOMMMED I tell ya!
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