I think it’s Pubbie voters in safely red areas being in snooze mode. That’s what happened here in AL. Everyone knew Moore was a lock. He was such a lock that you could safely stay home if you found him unsavory, or if you just had other things to do than think about a special election. No one knew how fired up and organized the Democrats were going to be. There was a freight train coming but nobody was paying attention and we got run over. I would suggest that awareness and fear of Democrat enthusiasm is what’s needed about now.
Which is exactly why Hillary lost. Things have shifted 180 degrees since November 2016.