Posted on 01/17/2018 12:49:53 PM PST by SeekAndFind
“Who cares about a state election in Wisconsin?” you ask. Ah, well, Scott Walker does. He’s running for a third term as governor this year and the current he’s rowing against is getting stronger. A lot of data nerds, eyeing the trend in last night’s results in special elections in Wisconsin and elsewhere, care. And if something doesn’t happen to stop the Democrats’ momentum, we’re all going to care in November.
Romney lost Wisconsin in 2012 but took Wisconsin’s 10th Senate District from Obama. Trump won the state narrowly in 2016 but crushed Hillary in the 10th. The last Republican to run for state senate there, a longtime incumbent, breezed to victory with 63.2 percent of the vote.
Last night? Democrats by 11.
Walker’s message to Wisconsin Republicans: MISSILE INBOUND. THIS IS NOT A DRILL.
Senate District 10 special election win by a Democrat is a wake up call for Republicans in Wisconsin.
— Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) January 17, 2018
Biggest takeaway from last night: We can’t presume that everyone knows about the positive things we’re getting done for the people of Wisconsin!
— Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) January 17, 2018
Nationwide, notes Dave Weigel, Democrats have picked up 34 legislative seats during the 2018 to, uh, four for the GOP. Remember the scene in “Ghostbusters” where the EPA dork shuts off the grid and Venkman et al. start to inch away from the machine and out of the room, knowing the destruction that’s about to be unleashed? That’s what election analysts were doing last night looking at the results in Wisconsin vis-a-vis the midterms:
Here is a breakdown of Democrats' over performance tonight in all 4 contested special elections:
SC #HD99: D+13.08%
WI #AD58: D+24.90%
WI #SD10: D+27.52%
IA #HD06: D+20.44%That is an average Dem over performance tonight of D+21.49%
That's… significant.
— Aaron Booth (@ActorAaronBooth) January 17, 2018
Four close House special elections was a wake-up call. This is a five alarm fire. https://t.co/AsW92O9j6y
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) January 17, 2018
Without an unpopular opponent for Trump, Trump's GOP's finding his unpopularity is crushing them electorally. Tonight's results on their own don't mean much, but, in context of 80+ state & federal legislative special elections, they're merely the latest sign GOP's in BIG trouble
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) January 17, 2018
*checks in on the special elections tonight* pic.twitter.com/kRyMVT0M0I
— Brandon Finnigan (@B_M_Finnigan) January 17, 2018
Can anything turn the tide — or at least slow it down a little? Well … maybe. The Times has some rare good polling news for the GOP today, finding a sharp uptick in approval for the new tax bill now that extra money’s beginning to show up in people’s paychecks.
The tax overhaul that Mr. Trump signed into law just before Christmas remains relatively unpopular and highly polarizing, according to a new poll conducted for The New York Times by SurveyMonkey. But support for the law has grown significantly over the past month, and more Americans believe that they will receive a tax cut. Forty-six percent of Americans strongly or somewhat approved of the law in early January, up from 37 percent when the bill was nearing passage in December.
At the same time, falling unemployment, accelerating economic growth and a surging stock market have made Americans increasingly positive about both their own finances and the overall economy. That could be good news for Republicans hoping to overcome Mr. Trump’s unpopularity in the midterm elections.
Michael Moran, a recently retired business executive in Georgia, said the economy in his town an hour north of Atlanta was “red hot.” The job market is so tight, he said, that he can’t even find an electrical contractor to perform repairs on his house.
The Dow has shot the moon, the economy’s booming, companies are paying tax-cut-inspired bonuses, and even blue-collar Americans are seeing more dough. In theory that’s a wave-buster. In theory. But last night’s results are what they are. God help the GOP if economic indicators, their one real breakwall in November, begin to disintegrate. Not even the Senate might be safe.
Shutting down the government will win their respect and their votes! Government shutdowns are VERY POPULAR!
They are disgusted with the way most Republicans are treating President Trump.
They are fat, dumb and happy with the way things are (i.e. watching their 401k grow)
Nobody on the ballot they are enthused about.
On the other hand, you have the rabid Trump haters who are going to turn out to the polls for any opportunity to "stick it to" President Trump.
I'm not quite as pessimistic as you but I agree that something needs to change between now and November to get those Trump supporters out there. Right now, the Republicans in Congress are doing very little to excite the base. The Republicans have turned off a lot of Trump supporters.
The Democrats are motivated by hate of Trump and so they will turn out in large numbers.
The GOP sticking their middle finger up to their own base is a very serious problem. They have revealed themselves to be total frauds.
Yes it does. I see it happening here where people who voted for trump are getting tired of the constant barrage of negativity surrounding him and his tweets. It is just about time the pubbies and Trump start doing some intelligent messaging to counter the MSM. It shouldn't be hard given the really stupid stuff being done by the left, were it not true that the pubbies are even more stupid.
His post seemed pretty accurate to me. Guess I’m a troll too.
Its going to be a bloodbath
Always with the negative vibes.... (Kelly’s Heros”
Yes it’s all over. It was great while it lasted but all of us now have to report to our nearest retraining center now run by Democrats of course. We will get fitted for our chains and go back to dreaming about how things could have been if only the Republicans had won that race in Wisconsin.
That person has always been a troll.
And that “35% approval” is what all the idiots at mediaite spew.
The Democrats have learned that they can win in Republican districts by having all their followers show and concentrating a large part of their oceans of resources in special elections, where they can pick us off one by one. Republicans need to go into permanent campaign mode yesterday.
No matter what Trump’s approval is, the trolls always say it’s 35%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
It is Wisconsin and local politics.
I’m not really sure what Trump’s approval rating is. I don’t place any stock in polls anyway.
But I am quite certain that the GOP’s approval rating is in the crapper at the bottom under a pile of some nasty, nasty stuff.
That, I think, is going to be factor in November. it’s just unreal how awful they are.
The GOP sticking their middle finger up to their own base is a very serious problem. They have revealed themselves to be total frauds.
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I agree. I consider myself a member of the Trump party. The GOP, with maybe a handful of exceptions, are just as bad as the vile RATS. I’d rather vote for no one than vote for one of those empty, lying suits ever again.
I read it was 33% turnout for dems, but only something like 13% for republicans.
They miss the good ole' days when President Obama ruled by executive order and congressional Republicans could only shrug their shoulders while sending the president ACA repeal bills they knew would be vetoed.
They're looking forward to shrugging their shoulders again as the minority party, "There's only so much we can do in this position..."
Yep. Need better GOTV.
At some point people are going to have to stop blaming vote fraud for piss-poor turnouts.
voter fraud?
Over 90% of ALL news attacks Trump. Even the weather. Social media has been proven to shut down all pro Trump posts.
You mean this is having an effect when even the Republican politicians cower behind walls and won’t stand up against the Communists? Color me shocked.
/
Yep. The non stop Trump bashing and hysteria couple with the Republicans bashing him publicly and sabotaging the agenda.
The swamp will win in the end I guess. Too big to dismantle through peaceful legitimate ways like voting and policy, but it will come down..it will collapse hard eventually.
As soon as the demographics change severely in ten years or so.
Then Bill Kristol will get to see how well Mexicans and Somalians etc can run Western Civilization after they replace all those white blue collar (or as he calls them “working class”) white people.
just STOP!
We are not showing up to vote. THAT is the reason for Alabama and this district in WI that flipped last night.
Why is that?
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