The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2018

CNN ^ | 3 January 2018 | Eric Bradner

[napscoordinator]

Washington (CNN)The most interesting Senate race in 2018 might have nothing to do with whether Republicans or Democrats control the chamber after this year's midterm elections.

The decision Tuesday by Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah to retire teed up Mitt Romney -- the 2012 Republican presidential nominee turned leading intra-party critic of President Donald Trump -- to run for a job that would give him major influence over the remainder of Trump's presidency. But Hatch is a Republican. Romney is a Republican. And if Romney is stopped, it'll be because another Republican won the nomination in Utah. It'll be a fascinating state to watch -- but it won't tip the partisan balance of the Senate. For that, look to two of Utah's neighbors: Nevada and Arizona.

[Bubba_Leroy]

In other breaking news, CNN predicts that Hillary Clinton will win in a nationwide landslide in 2016!

[grania]

Republicans won't win anything if Deplorables in districts and states where the "Republicans" have been disloyal to Trump's agenda stay home.

It makes me wonder just how safe the US Senate is. The establishment wouldn't even get that win for Roy Moore. They've handed the dems the roadmap on how to win.

[gibsonguy]

I am a little worried about AZ. The GOPe pick to replace Flake is just as bad as McTraitor. AZ has been infested with Californians from the west and illegals from the south. It is purple now. I could see McTraitor switching parties just before he has to check out because I believe AZ has a law that the Governor has to replace a Senator with someone from the same party. Yes, McTraitor is that vindictive.

[publius911]

Romney... the male Hillary.

Go away already!

[bigbob]

Arizona is extremely questionable. Rick Scott needs to get of the pot and commit if FL is to be a reality. Indiana needs a candidate who can win, not just the best of the three unknowns.

Not as optimistic as many feel. We’eve seen this movie before.

[LS]

Word is Chris Stewart, the best choice, wants the head of the intel committee in the House & won’t run. Plus they are friends. Dan (?) Lundquist might run, but is said to want the governor job more.

Minion would beat McMuffin and the D.

Barring a surprise, I’m sickened to say we are going to be stuck with Senator Minion.

[a fool in paradise]

August - October are when the October Surprises will drop. Media knows what they are slresdy but is saving them for maximum effect.

[MMaschin]

The Democrats have an uphill battle to win the House.

In the past, the best indicator of which party would win the House, was the Congressional generic vote. Because the Democrats are a much more urban party, the poll is naturally skewed towards the Democrats, so the tipping point was about +5D or +6D, so a higher than that Dem advantage would indicate Democrats win the House, and less, the Republicans would win the House. That is the logic being used to predict the Democrats are likely to win the House in 2018.

The problem for Democrats is that they are rapidly becoming an Urban Only party. Combine that with redistricting done by Republican controlled state legislatures, and it gets ugly for Dems. Look at this 2016 Results By Congressional District

When a party wins a Congressional District, they do not want to win is 80%-20%, they want to win it 55%-45%. Why? Because extra votes are wasted, they could be used in another district. The Democrats policies, combined with redistricting, has led to Democrat votes being isolated more into heavily Democratic districts.

IMHO - the polls that show the Dems with a +10 or more advantage in the generic ballot are suffering from loss of participation of Republican support, because of their distrust of the media. Example, the CNN poll shows the generic ballot as +18D! Do I believe they are intentionally manipulating the poll? NO. I believe that a significant percentage of Republican supporters, when they see CNN on the caller id, or hear the pollster mention CNN, will not answer, or will hang up - that results in a skewed polls - it's also why the 2016 exit polls were so wrong, towards the end of the night, I remember one of the pollsters mention how they had an exceptionally high number of people decline participation. Those who declined ended up being Trump supporters. That is, in my opinion, why the polls are skewing further, and further to Dems - Republicans are growing more angry at the MSM, and pollsters are viewed by many as part of the MSM.


Could the Democrats win the House? Sure. But, for that to happen, something like 2012 would need to happen. In 2012, I was certain that Romney would win. I knew that Obama did not have the support he had in 2008. I was correct, Obama got far fewer votes in 2012 than he did in 2008. Obama got fewer votes than McCain got in 2008, so had everyone who voted for McCain voted for Romney, Romney would have won. The problem was that "conservatives" decided that "there's no difference between Obama and Romney", and decided to stay home. I think that is the problem the Republicans have now, too many will allow a Democrat to win, in order to say they didn't elect a "RINO". If conservatives would take the approach that - Progressive < DINO < RINO < Conservative - and vote accordingly, the Republican party could force the Democrats to move further right, or become irrelevant. But, unfortunately, conservative pride seems to make that impossible, and yes, the risk of losing the House is real.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Georgia is turning blue is a dream the libtards at CNN love to talk about. :-)

[Zathras]

CNN sends the message to ObamaBots.
Attack Nevada and AZ

[Lurkinanloomin]

As they showed US in AL, the Bush League Republicans will help the Democrats win to keep US from electing anyone who will side with US and the rule of law.

[discostu]

Part of it for the senate is just raw math. This senate class is all Dems (23, 2 independents and 8 GOP), the GOP is in the odd position of not being able to lose seats they don’t have.

[Mr Rogers]

Arizona is not extremely questionable. It is not a good state for a fire-breathing conservative to get elected - too many people have moved here from California and Mexico for that - but getting a Republican elected shouldn’t be a hard task.

[spintreebob]

We don’t like either of the incumbents in AZ. Both will be empty seats the Dems must win and will do everything to win.

Our two strategies are possible.
#1. We field 2 candidates we like against 2 RINOs. If we lose in the primary, or in the final, we lose. In the final, the primary losers have no reason to vote R.

#2. We cut a deal with the RINOs. Both Ward and McSally. One for McCain’s seat, one for Flake’s seat.
All factions of Rs have a motive to vote in November.
We replace 2 RINOs with 1 RINO, 1 good gal. We have a net gain. RINOs have a net loss.

What do Freepers think?

[NutsOnYew]

That’s just what we need, some unheard-of far right candidate who will split the vote with Romney so a Democrat can win in another deep red state

I was thinking more along the lines of Romney getting beat in a primary, so the vote won't be split in the election.

[FrankR]

photo uploading sites

[MCF]

You got that right!

[Theodore R.]

The UT Mormon bishop is guaranteed the seat if he files!