Posted on 12/28/2017 7:06:08 AM PST by Kaslin
Forget the Super Bowl! For millions of Americans, the biggest spectator sport of 2018 will be the midterm elections. The political winds currently favor the Democrats, but it's impossible to know how strong they'll be blowing come November. Five key races can give casual fans a good sense of what to expect.
In the Senate, the races to watch will be held in Nevada, Indiana and Missouri. Nevada's Dean Heller is the only Republican seeking re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Indiana's Joe Donnelly and Missouri's Claire McCaskill are Democrats fighting to keep their job in states that President Trump carried by nearly 20 points.
These three are must-win states for the Democrats. If they win all three, a series of other close races could very well break their way to give Democrats majority control of the Senate.
If the parties split these races, the GOP would likely hang on to a narrow Senate majority. There just aren't enough other races for the Dems to pick up seats.
At the other extreme, if the Republicans sweep all three, additional Democratic incumbents might also be in trouble. West Virginia's Joe Manchin and North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp would be at risk and the GOP could make significant gains.
Of special importance in these races is the fact that the Senate plays a key role in judicial appointments. Voters in Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia and North Dakota will want to avoid giving Democrats the ability to block President Trump's judicial appointments. That alone could keep the Senate under Republican control.
Shifting to the House, the Democrats are almost certain to pick up seats because the party out of power just about always gains ground in the midterms. However, with 435 seats in play, there are no "must-win" races for either team.
There are, however, a few races to give a sense of how good a night the Democrats are likely to have. The first is Illinois-6, currently held by Republican Peter Roskam. This suburban district was carried by Hillary Clinton. Not only that, special elections this year have shown that the GOP is struggling to hang on to suburban voters. If Roskam is still competitive come November, the GOP might hold their losses to a dozen seats or so.
A more difficult race for the Democrats is Utah-4, currently held by Mia Love. Utah is typically hostile territory for Democrats but they've recruited a good challenger in Salt Lake City Mayor Ben McAdams. Still, this is the kind of seat the Dems could win only on a very good night. If we get to November and this race looks competitive, it means that the Republicans have already lost suburban seats like Roskam's and the Democrats could pick up 35-40 seats. They need just 24 to win control.
The biggest factor in determining control of the House will be the economy. A strong economy helps the GOP immensely (especially after passage of tax reform). However, a second critical factor might be how much Democrats talk about impeaching President Trump. If they do that rather than focusing on issues, it will be good news for the GOP.
None of us can know what things will look like in November, but right now control of the House seems to be a pure toss-up.
The President needs to go to Indiana and Missouri. Win those two races and it’ll be yuuuge.
I hope they've got the message. SHAPE UP and embrace and pass the Deplorable Agenda or they and the nation cannot be saved.
I actually thought after the 2016 election, we would finally get close to 60 seats in the senate, but it seems like we will be lucky to have 52 or 53 seats...bummer. And the fact that the House is in jeopardy is scary. If the outcome ends up with GOP having 53 seats in the Senate and lose the House, it is 100 percent blame on the Republicans. But wow our lives will suck big time for a long time to come....2020 could be even worse.
The repubs have a 47 seat lead in the house. In the senate dems have 20+ aeats at risk while repubs have about 8. Those numbers favor the repybs in both house and senate.
That’s why we get articles like this pretending repubs are in trouble. Itsthe dems who are in trouble just by the numbers.
But the media insists on slanting the news to make themselves relevant and to help the dems.
National polls mean NOTHING to house races and next to nothing to senate races. Remember the red vs blue map of the USA.
I don’t think WE(THAT IS ALL OF US) are going to let it happen. Stranger things have happened. Remember the GOP is the STOO-PED party. Thai includes us. Just ask Roy Moore/Sharon Angle/Akin.
Good news: DNC is broke. RNC has lots of money but not from me. Hopefully the freeper candidates will get plenty of money to win. On he other side the Dems have more than a few rich donors that can write a big check.
Agree....the house and senate Rs need to start fighting RATs.....now.
I think we will see a 6-8 seat gain in the Senate and status quo in the House.
“The political winds currently favor the Democrats”
That’s what the MSM says/wants.
I don’t think so.
Why even try? We’re going to lose both houses. I heard it on CNN./s
The time to replace RINO congresscriters is during the primaries. In the general election, if your choice is between a RINO or a democrat, vote for the RINO or you are voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House.
Then work like hell in the next primary to make sure you have a better choice in 2 years.
Claire McCaskill had a heavy hand in getting Obama elected. Claire compared John McCain’s citizenship to Obama’s citizenship. That muddied the waters for the Obama citizenship question. We owe Obama’s destructive reign to Claire McCaskill.
Dems and their media mouthpieces are so certain a blue wave is coming that it is almost certain to not happen. Six to eight new GOP senators would go a long way to help firm up some of the wobblies and force more cooperation from less ideological Dems.
Donelly, Tester, MacCaskill, Manchin, Casey, and Nelson should all see defeat.
I would be surprised if the GOP loses more than 10 seats in the House. The economy is booming. Paychecks are not growing much but the net pay will be bigger for most next year. Only the far left will be consumed by rage.
All bets are off if the president is forced to go to war that turns out unpopular.
The president needs our prayers.
TO THE LEFT, WITH ALL OF THEIR POLITICAL PREDICTIONS: Don’t you hate being right all the time?
That would do so much damage to the RNC.
Pass it on.
After Alabama loss, Trump has ambitious plans to campaign in 2018 midterms (MAGA Phase II)
With numbers like those, I like our chances!
8^)
You share my sentiments exactly. I dont see how the Republicans hold the House and think the RATS have decent shot taking the Senate. I also think 2020 will be a blood bath as Democrats will win the Presidency as well as gain in congress.
I maintain 2016 was ONLY devine intervention. Hillary really should have won. 0bama was incredibly propular, people really believed things were going well in the country and 0bamas approval was around 60%. She was running to continue his policies, so she should have won. But I believe God interviened to give this nation one last reprieve. One last chance for this nation change its wicked ways. But we arent changing our wicked ways. A majority of Americans still embrace liberal ideas and policies...gay marriage, abortion rights, the LGTB agenda being taught in school and so forth. Trump is is being rejected by a large majority, near 60% disapproval.
The nation is rejecting the reprieve from Above...and we will suffer starting in 2018. In 2020 we will get a POTUS worse than 0bama and Hillary put together (Kamala Harris?). We are toast.
That takes the Negative - Thinking Post of the Year.
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